Investigating energy production and wake losses of multi-gigawatt offshore wind farms with atmospheric large-eddy simulation

Abstract. As a consequence of the rapid growth of the globally installed offshore wind energy capacity, the size of individual wind farms is increasing. This poses a challenge to models that predict energy production. For instance, the current generation of wake models has mostly been calibrated on existing wind farms of much smaller size. This work analyses annual energy production and wake losses for future multi-gigawatt wind farms with atmospheric large-eddy simulation. To that end, one year of actual weather has been simulated for a suite of hypothetical four-gigawatt offshore wind farm scenarios. The scenarios differ in terms of applied turbine type, installed capacity density, and layout. The results suggest that production numbers increase significantly when the rated power of the individual turbines is larger, while keeping the total installed capacity the same. Even for turbine types with similar rated power, but slightly different power curves, significant differences in production were found. Although wind speed was identified as the most dominant factor determining the aerodynamic losses, a clear impact of atmospheric stability has been identified. By analyzing losses of the first-row turbines, the yearly average global-blockage effect is estimated between 2 to 3 %, but it can reach levels over 10 % for stably stratified conditions and wind speeds around 8 ms⁻¹. Using a high-fidelity modeling technique, the present work provides insights in the performance of future, multi-gigawatt wind farms for a full year of realistic weather conditions.