Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-52
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-52
 
01 Jul 2022
01 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WES.

Current and future wind energy resources in the North Sea according to CMIP6

Andrea N. Hahmann, Oscar García-Santiago, and Alfredo Peña Andrea N. Hahmann et al.
  • Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark

Abstract. We explore the changes in wind energy resources in Northern Europe using output from historical to mid-twenty-first century simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the high-emission scenario. This study improves upon many assumptions made in the past: (1) we interpolate the winds to hub height; (2) we use a large ensemble of CMIP6 models; and (3) we consider the possible wake effects on the energy production of a large wind farm. The wind climatologies in the CMIP6 models show good correspondence with measurements and reanalysis data. Our results show that annual mean wind speed and wind resources in Northern Europe are not particularly affected by climate change in 2031–2050 relative to 1995–2014, according to a sub-set of 16 models in the CMIP6 collection. However, climate change could significantly alter the seasonal distribution of these resources. Most models agree on reductions in the future wind in summer in a band that extends from the British Isles to the Baltic Sea and on increases in winter in the Southern Baltic Sea. The energy production calculations show that summer energy production in a planned large wind farm cluster in the North Sea could be reduced by a median of 6.9 % during 2031–2050 when taking into account the wind farm wakes (that account for -0.7 %) and the changes in air density (that account for -0.9 %). Extrapolating 10-meter wind speeds to turbine height using the power law with a constant shear exponent is often a poor approximation. It can exaggerate the future changes in wind resources and ignore possible surface roughness and stability changes.

Andrea N. Hahmann et al.

Status: open (until 12 Aug 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wes-2022-52', Nicola Bodini, 07 Aug 2022 reply

Andrea N. Hahmann et al.

Andrea N. Hahmann et al.

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Short summary
We explore the changes in wind energy resources in Northern Europe using output from simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the high-emission scenario. Our results show that climate change does not particularly alter annual energy production in the North Sea but could affect the seasonal distribution of these resources, significantly reducing energy production during the summer from 2031 to 2050.