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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">WESD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Wind Energy Science Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">WESD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2366-7621</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/wes-2026-125</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Transformer-Based Probabilistic Wind Power Prediction and Power Ramping Verification with Error Tolerance</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Meng</surname>
<given-names>Ruoke</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5887-9538</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Van den Bergh</surname>
<given-names>Joris</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4873-0710</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tabari</surname>
<given-names>Hossein</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Termonia</surname>
<given-names>Piet</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smet</surname>
<given-names>Geert</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9964-9798</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Ghent University</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>University of Antwerp</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>27</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ruoke Meng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-125/">This article is available from https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-125/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-125/wes-2026-125.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-125/wes-2026-125.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Accurate probabilistic wind power forecasts and reliable detection of ramping events are important for the stable operation of wind-integrated power systems. This study implements a Self-Attentive Ensemble Transformer for postprocessing operational wind power ensembles in the Belgian Offshore Zone. This postprocessing delivers corrected ensemble members as output rather than a predictive distribution. The Transformer model achieves near-zero bias in the ensemble mean and a lower Continuous Ranked Probability Score across all lead times than power-curve derived raw ensembles and shows some improvements to Member-by-Member benchmark methods. This model also shows the ability to correct for power overestimation associated with the wake effect. For power ramping, this paper focuses on the predictability of 15 % and 30 % hourly ramping events. The Transformer produces event frequencies that closely align with the observations over all ramping thresholds. Considering that frequent temporal shifts and intensity underestimations limit a fair evaluation of ramping prediction, we introduce an error-tolerant probabilistic verification framework with buffer concepts and score the model by Buffer Brier Skill Score (BBSS). Incorporating a temporal buffer and magnitude tolerance substantially mitigates penalties for minor prediction errors. This reveals that the models are capable of detecting ramping signals, even though they lack strict precision. While uncertainty is inherent in ramping forecasts, the Transformer demonstrates better-calibrated probabilities than the raw ensembles. Overall, the Transformer method improves probabilistic power prediction and provides an informative probabilistic representation of ramping events.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Belgian Federal Science Policy Office</funding-source>
<award-id>B2/223/P1/E-TREND</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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