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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">WESD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Wind Energy Science Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">WESD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2366-7621</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/wes-2026-36</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Probabilistic forecasting of wind turbine remaining useful life using conformalised quantile regression</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Eftekhari Milani</surname>
<given-names>Ali</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5380-565X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zappalá</surname>
<given-names>Donatella</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8283-5102</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sheng</surname>
<given-names>Shawn</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watson</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6694-3149</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, Delft, 2629 HS, Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>National Wind Technology Center, National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ali Eftekhari Milani et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-36/">This article is available from https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-36/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-36/wes-2026-36.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2026-36/wes-2026-36.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In recent years, numerous machine learning methods have been developed to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine components. However, uncertainties in modelling the future progression of degradation often preclude accurate point forecasts of failure times. Quantifying this uncertainty is therefore crucial to ensuring reliable predictions as it empowers operators to make risk-informed maintenance decisions. This work proposes a probabilistic RUL forecasting framework that leverages a convolutional autoencoder (CAE) to extract health indicators (HIs) from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) signals, accurately capturing component degradation over time. To facilitate HI extraction, a Convolutional Neural Network-based normal behaviour modelling framework is employed as a feature extractor, and residuals of component temperature signals, rather than the raw signals, are supplied to the CAE. These HIs are then fed into a Long Short-Term Memory-based conformalised quantile regression framework to probabilistically predict RUL, calibrating confidence intervals to reliably represent uncertainty. This proposed approach effectively models degradation while alleviating the impact of high noise in field data. Its application to two case studies demonstrates that, while achieving similar performance to existing approaches using the simulated Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (CMAPSS) dataset, the proposed approach significantly outperforms when using a real SCADA dataset with gearbox failures, reducing point prediction errors by approximately 67 %. Furthermore, the generated prediction intervals are better calibrated and, on average, 42 % shorter, providing more informative and reliable uncertainty estimates.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
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