Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102
31 Jan 2023
 | 31 Jan 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal WES.

The Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Winds over Northern Europe According to CMIP6

Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann

Abstract. We study the possible effect of climate change on the extreme wind over Northern Europe using data from 18 models of the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the high-emission SSP585 scenario. We use the spectral correction method to correct the 6-hourly wind speeds and calculate the 50-year wind at an equivalent temporal resolution of 10 minutes, consistent with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard. We assess the quality of the CMIP6 wind data during the historical period through comparison to the spatial patterns of the extreme wind in three reanalysis data. We obtain the possible effect of climate change through the comparison of the extreme wind parameters, including the 50-year wind and the 95 %-percentile of the wind speed, and the change in turbine class at 50 m, 100 m and 200 m, between a near future period (2020–2049) and the historic period (1980–2009). The analysis shows an overall increase in the extreme winds in the North Sea and the southern Baltic Sea, but a decrease over the Scandinavian Peninsula and most of the Baltic Sea. However, the analysis is inconclusive to whether higher or lower classes of turbines will be installed in this area in the future.

Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Review of wes-2022-102', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Feb 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xiaoli Larsén, 28 Mar 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on wes-2022-102', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Feb 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Xiaoli Larsén, 28 Mar 2023
Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann
Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann

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Latest update: 29 Feb 2024
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Short summary
We study how climate change will impact extreme winds and choice of turbine class. We use data from 18 CMIP6 members from a historic and a future period to access the change in the extreme winds. The analysis shows an overall increase in the extreme winds in the North Sea and the southern Baltic Sea, but a decrease over the Scandinavian Peninsula and most of the Baltic Sea. The analysis is inconclusive to whether higher or lower classes of turbines will be installed in the future.
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