The Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Winds over Northern Europe According to CMIP6
Abstract. We study the possible effect of climate change on the extreme wind over Northern Europe using data from 18 models of the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the high-emission SSP585 scenario. We use the spectral correction method to correct the 6-hourly wind speeds and calculate the 50-year wind at an equivalent temporal resolution of 10 minutes, consistent with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard. We assess the quality of the CMIP6 wind data during the historical period through comparison to the spatial patterns of the extreme wind in three reanalysis data. We obtain the possible effect of climate change through the comparison of the extreme wind parameters, including the 50-year wind and the 95 %-percentile of the wind speed, and the change in turbine class at 50 m, 100 m and 200 m, between a near future period (2020–2049) and the historic period (1980–2009). The analysis shows an overall increase in the extreme winds in the North Sea and the southern Baltic Sea, but a decrease over the Scandinavian Peninsula and most of the Baltic Sea. However, the analysis is inconclusive to whether higher or lower classes of turbines will be installed in this area in the future.
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