Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Proposed Areas for Offshore Wind Implementation with Monte Carlo Method

Abstract. This research presents a comparative study on offshore wind energy site selection, focusing on technological, environmental, social, and regulatory barriers, while ensuring compatibility with other marine activities and habitats. The study applies Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and contrasts it with a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulations. Although AHP is widely used, its deterministic nature limits the representation of uncertainty in decision-making. To address this, Monte Carlo methods are applied independently, extending previous approaches by incorporating additional design criteria and enhancing robustness. Results demonstrate that integrating probabilistic uncertainty significantly improves the reliability of site selection, identifying optimal zones with higher confidence. Overall, the study highlights the advantages of Monte Carlo simulations over AHP in supporting sustainable and reliable offshore wind energy planning.