the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
FastLE: A New Load Extrapolation Method for Site-specific Wind Turbines Using the Load Distribution Meta Model
Abstract. To ensure the safety of wind turbines at specific sites, IEC 61400-1 mandates the extrapolation of loads as a key requirement. Given the variability in wind parameters across different turbine sites, particularly in complex terrains, this task demands significant computational resources for simulations. However, the method recommended in the standard fall short of providing comprehensive assessments and rapid iterations necessary for all turbine locations within wind farm optimization designs. This paper presents a rapid load extrapolation method, named FastLE, which is based on a load distribution meta-model and tailored for specific sites. Based on 20 test cases, the blade root out-of-plane bending moment (OOPBM) for a 50-year return period was calculated using both the IEC method and the FastLE method introduced in this paper. Through comparative analysis, the mean APE is only 3.165 %, and the computation time for a single calculation has been reduced from 20 hours to less than 1 second. The results show that the FastLE method can complete load extrapolation calculations for wind turbines in seconds with high accuracy. This makes it suitable for ensuring structural integrity during iterations of wind farm layout optimization or turbine type optimization, thereby reducing the safety risks associated with wind turbines.
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Status: open (until 21 Apr 2025)
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EC1: 'Comment on wes-2025-39', Nikolay Dimitrov, 24 Mar 2025
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Dear authors, thank you for submitting this interesting paper. I have a few comments which I hope will be complementary to the upcoming reviews.
- The authors mention an impressive dataset of 541 meteorological towers in a specific region. Some more details would be relevant in order to understand if the data are comparable – i.e., how does the terrain differ among the various met mast locations, are the measurement heights the same, are the instruments the same (cup anemometers, sonic anemometers, lidars)?
- The IEC 61400, ed. 4 standard allows several different approaches to extrapolation, including avoiding the extrapolation altogether by introducing a higher safety factor. It will be useful if the authors could study/compare these different extrapolation approaches in the context of their proposed methodology.
- One significant challenge in the “fitting before aggregation” method is that the distribution fitting on a few values is not very robust, and a few outliers or bad fits can distort the aggregated result. It would be good to check the confidence in the aggregated distribution predictions – for example by doing multiple local distribution fits by bootstrapping the block maxima.
- There is a dependency between the shape and scale parameters in a Weibull distribution fit (if you choose a value of one parameter, it will define what is the value of the other parameter that best represents the data set). Therefore, fitting separate meta models for the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution may limit the accuracy of the results. In the current manuscript, it doesn’t get clear if the authors fit one single MLP model with two outputs, or two separate models? Please discuss.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-39-EC1
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