the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impact of wind farms on the occurrence and characteristics of low-level jets
Abstract. The low-level jet (LLJ) is an occurrence of super-geostrophic wind speeds in the lower regions of the atmosphere, typically below 1 km. LLJs are highly relevant for wind energy as they can substantially modulate power production, wake recovery, and loads of wind turbines and wind farms. However, it is not clear how the presence of wind farms affects the occurrence rate and characteristics of LLJs, with some simulations suggesting that the presence of farms leads to fewer LLJs and to LLJs occurring at higher elevations. In this work, we develop methods to take advantage of unique long-term wind profile measurements to experimentally assess the impact of wind farms on the occurrence rates and morphologies of LLJs. We use more than 27 years of profiling radar wind measurements collected for the period August 1998–April 2026 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in Lamont, Oklahoma, with over ten large wind farms (each comprising up to 100 turbines) installed near the measurement site at ranges from 17 km to 67 km, with the closest (and largest) installations just to the east, west, and south. We apply both traditional LLJ detection methods (i.e., drop-off and shear) and a data-driven agglomerative-clustering method to hourly-averaged wind speed profiles. The aggregate LLJ occurrence rates are essentially indistinguishable pre- and post-construction (approximately 40 % by the shear method and 36 % by the drop-off method), with a transient reduction of approximately 3 % (shear method) and 4.5 % (drop-off method) during the construction era (2012–2020). Data-driven analysis further resolves sector- and time-of-day-specific shifts: in all wind sectors examined, including a sector with no upstream farms, clusters with strong near-ground shear seem to be replaced by clusters with reduced near-ground shear. However, LLJ rates are not significantly affected, although the results suggest a stronger modification at night (local time 0–6, reductions of around 50 % for specific clusters). Given concerns about long-term background climatological variability, it is very difficult to ensure that these results are statistically significant. In contrast to previous simulations, we find no statistically significant evidence of wind farm modifications of LLJ rates.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
- RC1: 'Comment on wes-2026-98', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Jul 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on wes-2026-98', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Sep 2026
General comments:
Overall, the paper is well written, and it presents an interesting analysis of wind profiler data that span nearly 2 decades during which significant wind farm development happened in the study domain. However, the paper is rather long and reads more like a summary report of different analysis methods rather than a paper motivated by specific scientific questions. Please see the specific comments for suggested improvements.
Specific comments:
The introduction could be improved by adding more information about the climatology and formation mechanisms about the LLJ in the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Many studies have focused on the SGP LLJ and it is well known that the SGP LLJ is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon with seasonal differences in strength and prevailing wind directions. These findings from previous studies should inform the analyses conducted by the authors. The motivation for including daytime periods into their analysis is e.g. a bit unclear to me. While daytime jets can occur the dynamics of these jets and possible interactions with mixing induced by wind farms are going to be different from the processes of nocturnal jets.
Similarly, the introduction could be strengthened by more clearly summarizing the results from pervious studies about the vertical and downstream area of influence of wind turbines and how the selected data sets will be able to resolve possible wind turbine effects. The lowest height of the radar wind profiler data sets used ended up being 125 m with a vertical resolution of 60 m, while the typical rotor heights in the study domain are between 30 m -150 m. Given these rotor heights, over which layer would we expect to see impacts and how many data points fall into this layer?
It would be good to add the label C1 to the star in Fig. 2
In Fig. 4, it is unclear how the data availability in panel a) and the frequency in panels b) and c) are computed. Panel a appears to show the percentage of data available relative to the yearly record, but what exactly does the frequency in panels b) and c) show? How is N, the total sample size relative to which the frequency is calculated, defined in this case? It looks like N may be the total number of data points over each of the 3 time periods (Pre, During, Post). The value of ~ 0.075 for the blue bar in January does then indicate that 7.5% of the data from the pre-construction were observed in January, and all the blue bars add up to a value of 1 (100%)? Would it not be more informative to define N as the number of data points that should be available each month (or for each time block in panel c) for the 3 time periods such that the bar plots in panels b) and c) also show the percentage of data available for each months/time block. In any case, the caption should be expanded to add clarity and the formatting of the tick marks of the axes should be better aligned.
The arguments around line 160 on p. 8 are a bit unclear. Is one analysis targeting the effects of multiple wind farms on average wind fields, while the ad hoc selection targets more local effects of specific wind turbines?
In line 165, the authors define 4 calendar quarters. Shouldn’t the selection of seasonal quarters be informed by what is known about the LLJ climatology?
How would the results shown in Fig. 5 look like if the bootstrapping was not applied? Also, how exactly should the 90% MBB CIs be interpreted? The variability of the data must be much higher than the narrow CI values shown, especially in panel c). What would a plot look like that shows “error bands” defined by the standard deviation of the data?
The discussion of the 2 traditional LLJ detection methods is interesting but I have questions about how exactly these methods handle e.g. profiles with more than one maximum etc. and I think the discussion of the results could be shortened. While it is interesting to see the profiles in Fig. 8 for the 4 different scenarios, most of the discussion that focuses on the cases when only once of the methods worked could be significantly shortened. In Fig. 8, I would again suggest adding “error bands” that show the standard deviation of the profiles at each height. Fig. 9 is quite misleading as the sample sizes for cases A, B, and C are so different. Case B/C include only ~5/2 % of the data and it’s not clear to me what we can learn from comparing the distributions for these two cases during the 3 time periods (Pre, During, and Post). I would suggest focusing only on case A and show bar graphs comparing the 3 time periods for these cases. This would allow the reader to get a much better sense if the construction of wind farms had any effect. As I pointed out at the beginning, I would also find it valuable to focus on the nocturnal periods.
Is it possible to show percentages in Fig. 11 rather than counts?
It is not clear to me what the values shown in Table 3 mean. The 4 cases were defined in section 3 comparing the skill of the 2 traditional LLJ detection methods. How are the 4 quadrants defined for the cluster analysis?
Fig. 12 clearly shows that only clusters 7-9, possibly cluster 6, are LLJ like profiles. Wind farm effects could show up in 2 ways: (i) a shift in the LLJ clusters that are most prominent during the 3 time periods (Pre, During, and Post) and (ii) differences in the profile shape near the ground as the clustering may focus more on the height and strength of the LLJ nose. Why does the rest of the analysis not focus on the clusters with LLJ signatures., what is the value of including all the other clusters? I find the pdf comparisons introduced after line 414 very confusing and the results shown in Figs. 13-15 difficult to interpret.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-98-RC2 -
EC1: 'Comment on wes-2026-98', Johan Arnqvist, 24 Sep 2026
I have decided to close the discussion and allow for the reviewers to respond to the questions raised by the reviewers. Both reviewers raised major concerns relating to the lack of discussion of physical mechanisms for the LLJs and the accompanying interaction/modification of LLJs by wind turbine wakes as well as the uncertainty involved in the application of sparse resolution radar data to capture LLJ characteristics. It is naturally expected that the authors answer all questions raised by the reviewers, but I regard improvements in the above mentioned two points as crucial for a potential future acceptance of the work.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-98-EC1
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- 1
Review of WES-26-98
Impact of wind farms on the occurrence and characteristics of low-level jets
By Moss et al.,
This manuscript reports on a study that investigates the change of low level jet characteristics between a pre-wind farm and a wind farm era in the region. Long term radar data are used to study wind profile statistics to answer this question. I have several concerns about this manuscript in terms of clearness which research question is precisely studied, how the applied methods serve the goal, the maturity of the text and especially maturity of figure captions. The text reads as a bumpy ride where the reader is not taken by the hand to learn about the outcomes, but it feels like a chain of detours. I gave up reading after Fig 12…… ( I think for the first time in 20 years of reviewing papers).
Recommendation: reject.
Major remarks:
Minor remarks:
Ln 1: is an occurrence of super-geostrophic wind speeds. This is only the case if it is an inertial oscillation, but there are other mechanisms to create wind maxima.
Figure 1: label the panels a,b,c, and refer to them in the fig captions.
Ln 47: Figure 1 illustrates schematically how this interaction might look. I must say I do not see any interaction in the graph, I only see a hypothesis how profiles and histograms look like before and after wind farm implementation. It would strengthen the paper if more of the mechanisms are being discussed. E.g. till this point in the paper I did not read about atmospheric stability. Wind turbines creative turbulence in their wakes which will mix the atmospheric profiles and thus make the flow less stably stratified, which should reduce or delay the de-coupling between surface and atmosphere.
Ln 59: is also considered how often turbines need to be switched off between cases, i.e. when LLJ and wind shear below the LLJ become too large/strong?
Ln 69: the LLJ is a local maximum wind speed. This needs to be reworded. If you mean locally in the vertical, then yes I agree, but horizontally I would disagree. Decoupling of the surface from the atmosphere occurs over large areas, and these areas are also advected by the mean wind. So you cannot think in vertical columns only. Please comment.
Ln 68-80: this paragraph needs to be tidied, since it is very unclear. I feel you try to explain how jet detection may occur, but at the same time basic references to works that explain and illustrate this detection as Baas et al. and Kalverla et al. and others are missing.
Ln 92: To achieve these goals. I did not read anything about goals or objectives before. Reword…
Ln 92-109: this piece can be drastically shortened to 3-4 sentences. It is a TOC that is too long. Better use the word count for formulating a proper and researchable research question.
Ln 116: it is not clear here how a radar is a suitable instrument to detect wind speed profiles, and specifically wind maxima as LLJs. I would say a radar needs larger particles in the atmosphere to detect displacements than that are available in the atmosphere. The authors should also make clear why a radar is better for this purpose than a radio sounding or a wind profiler.
Ln 122: one should indicate what is the vertical resolution of the radar output? Is it fine enough to detect wind maxima? Ln 124 says it is 60 m vertical spacing. In my view that is way too coarse to detect LLJs. I would like to see a comparison of LLJ detection between high-resolution tower data or radio sounding data on the one hand and the radar at 60 m on the other. I expect that when the first two methods are degraded to 60 m, then the LLJ climatology will alter to less LLJs, more vertically diluted LLJs and weaker LLJs.
Ln 122, same section please add what is the accuracy of the wind speed profile and its shear as detected with the radar, and for the jet nose in particular.
Ln 130: 1-hour profiles. Please justify why 1h profiles are suitable for studying LLJ dynamics. LLJs can evolve relatively quickly, i.e. they originate from a sudden decoupling of the surface from the atmosphere. The fact it happens suddenly already means short time scales are relevant.
Ln 139-140: We restrict the data to heights between 125m and 1 km. This is tricky in the sense that earlier studies have shown that substantial number of LLJs occur below the 125 m level (e.g. Baas et al. 2009), while Kalverla et al, (2017) remarks that “It is noteworthy that most LLJs are observed at or around 100 m altitude”. It seems the current authors sample only a subset of LLJ potential. Please comment.
Ln 142: the PCA appears completely out of the blue here. The reader is not guided why this analysis is performed, neither what is the precise purpose of it. Need to be revised.
Figure 5, caption: refer to each panel in the caption. Als expand MBB, so the reader does not need to go back to the main text for clarification. Also be more precise in the caption about the precise location of these data.
Ln 222-225: justify why the mentioned threshold values are suitable for your specific study location.
Figure 7: “Populations of the four quadrants” does not say much to the reader, who is forced to go back to the text. And then learns that the analysis is not between obs and model, for which MCC is usually used, but between two models. What is exactly the purpose of this aspect of the study?
Table 2, and related text: it is completely unclear to me why this analysis is performed. Why do we need to know how often and when a case A transitions into case B or vv. I.e. we talk about nothing that is related to the physics, only about whether two detection methods agree or not. I do not see what we learn about this analysis in answering whether LLJ statistics change with the implementation of a wind farm or not. It is a big de-tour.
Section 4 till ln 361: this section is very wordy and not necessarily clarifying. Please add more context why this analysis is needed to answer the research question. Of course you can enter all data into such an algorithm, and get output, but why would one perform such an analysis if it does not contribute to the research question. It also reconfirms that the research question in the Introduction is not well stated.
Figure 10: is discussed in the text in only 4 lines. So is it really necessary to be included?
Figure 10, caption: … of subclustered results. Of what? Be more precise in the formulation of the fig captions. The caption lacks the time range of the data involved, and the location where data have been taken. The difference between green and red boxes is not indicated in the caption. Also red/green choice makes the figure not very colourblind proof. Meaning of C1…C9 is not indicated in the caption either.
Figure 11: x and y axes should be swapped since the original cluster is the independent variable in this analysis and the reclustered one the dependent variable.
Figure 11, caption: Confusion matrix showing initial agglomerative labels and relabelled results from the final k-means pass. The caption does not say much. I read it several times, and tried to find it in the main text what I should learn from this Fig, but it is unclear. If it is the % of data that stick to their original cluster after implementation of wind farm, then please say it more clearly and more straightforward. If this is not the message, then I do not see why this “statistics sauce” (sorry to say) is needed.
Figure 12: In many panels text/legend is plot over the key lines, which is not a proper way of doing.
Figure 12, caption: Color indicates the period. Yes they do, but as reader I first need to go back to earlier figures to find which color relates to which period.
I am sorry to say but I gave up reading from here, since it is unclear what the paper heads towards, what is the precise goal, how the applied methods serve that goal, why 9 clusters have been chosen without a physical basis….