Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-723-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-723-2026
Research article
 | 
26 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 26 Feb 2026

Exploring future production scenarios for Italian offshore wind power

Davide Medici, Arianna Tonna, and Antonio Segalini

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Cited articles

4C Offshore: Wind Turbines Database, TGS [data set], https://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/ (last access: 27 June 2024), 2024. a
Dhomé, U., Kuttenkeuler, J., and Segalini, A.: Observation of the atmospheric boundary layer over the Atlantic and its effects for wind propulsion, Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 258, 106014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2025.106014, 2025. a
Dörenkämper, M., Olsen, B. T., Witha, B., Hahmann, A. N., Davis, N. N., Barcons, J., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Sastre-Marugán, M., Sīle, T., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., and Mann, J.: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020. a
EMD: EMD-WRF Europe+ (ERA5), https://help.emd.dk/mediawiki/index.php/EMD-WRF_Europe+_(ERA5), last access: 15 September 2024. a
Gaertner, E., Rinker, J., Sethuraman, L., Zahle, F., Anderson, B., Barter, G., Abbas, N., Meng, F., Bortolotti, P., Skrzypinski, W., Scott, G., Feil, R., Bredmose, H., Dykes, K., Shields, M., Allen, C., and Visell, A.: Definition of the IEA 15-megawatt offshore reference wind turbine, https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/75698.pdf (last access: 23 February 2026), 2020. a, b
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Starting from existing offshore projects in the Mediterranean Sea, we utilized the CERRA (Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis) dataset to analyze historical wind data and applied a genetic algorithm to propose a preliminary layout for a large number of farms. A significant part of our study involves the use of Monte Carlo simulations to project future energy scenarios. These simulations consider various factors, including technical challenges, wind patterns, turbine characteristics, and array efficiency affected by wake effects.
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