Articles | Volume 2, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-189-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-189-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Statistical characterization of roughness uncertainty and impact on wind resource estimation
Wind Energy Division/Meteorology Section,
Risø Lab./Campus, Danish Technical University,
Roskilde 4000, Denmark
Hans E. Jørgensen
Wind Energy Division/Meteorology Section,
Risø Lab./Campus, Danish Technical University,
Roskilde 4000, Denmark
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Beyond the First Generation of Wind Modeling for Resource Assessment and Siting: From Meteorology to Uncertainty Quantification M. Kelly 10.3390/en18071589
- On the accuracy of a logarithmic extrapolation of the wind speed measured by horizontal lidar scans F. Theuer et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1618/3/032043
- Geostrophic Drag Law in Conventionally Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Simplified Parametrization and Numerical Validation L. Liu et al. 10.1007/s10546-024-00878-6
- Inflow modeling for wind farm flows in RANS M. Laan et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1934/1/012012
- Global terrestrial stilling: does Earth’s greening play a role? Z. Zeng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaea84
- Data-driven mapping of hourly wind speed and its potential energy resources: A sensitivity analysis A. Collados-Lara et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.109
- Satellite-based estimation of roughness lengths and displacement heights for wind resource modelling R. Floors et al. 10.5194/wes-6-1379-2021
- Hidden safety in structural design codes M. Teichgräber et al. 10.1016/j.engstruct.2022.114017
- The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation M. Dörenkämper et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020
- From lidar scans to roughness maps for wind resource modelling in forested areas R. Floors et al. 10.5194/wes-3-353-2018
- Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain J. Yan et al. 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112519
- From shear to veer: theory, statistics, and practical application M. Kelly & M. van der Laan 10.5194/wes-8-975-2023
- Perfomance-based wind engineering assessment of critical telecommunication infrastructure subjected to bora wind I. Depina et al. 10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112083
- Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates T. McCandless et al. 10.1007/s10546-022-00727-4
- Effective Roughness and Displaced Mean Flow over Complex Terrain M. Kelly & D. Cavar 10.1007/s10546-022-00748-z
- Wind speed vertical extrapolation model validation under uncertainty J. Quick et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122028
- The New European Wind Atlas Model Chain J. Rodrigo et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1452/1/012087
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Beyond the First Generation of Wind Modeling for Resource Assessment and Siting: From Meteorology to Uncertainty Quantification M. Kelly 10.3390/en18071589
- On the accuracy of a logarithmic extrapolation of the wind speed measured by horizontal lidar scans F. Theuer et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1618/3/032043
- Geostrophic Drag Law in Conventionally Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Simplified Parametrization and Numerical Validation L. Liu et al. 10.1007/s10546-024-00878-6
- Inflow modeling for wind farm flows in RANS M. Laan et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1934/1/012012
- Global terrestrial stilling: does Earth’s greening play a role? Z. Zeng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaea84
- Data-driven mapping of hourly wind speed and its potential energy resources: A sensitivity analysis A. Collados-Lara et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.109
- Satellite-based estimation of roughness lengths and displacement heights for wind resource modelling R. Floors et al. 10.5194/wes-6-1379-2021
- Hidden safety in structural design codes M. Teichgräber et al. 10.1016/j.engstruct.2022.114017
- The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation M. Dörenkämper et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020
- From lidar scans to roughness maps for wind resource modelling in forested areas R. Floors et al. 10.5194/wes-3-353-2018
- Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain J. Yan et al. 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112519
- From shear to veer: theory, statistics, and practical application M. Kelly & M. van der Laan 10.5194/wes-8-975-2023
- Perfomance-based wind engineering assessment of critical telecommunication infrastructure subjected to bora wind I. Depina et al. 10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112083
- Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates T. McCandless et al. 10.1007/s10546-022-00727-4
- Effective Roughness and Displaced Mean Flow over Complex Terrain M. Kelly & D. Cavar 10.1007/s10546-022-00748-z
- Wind speed vertical extrapolation model validation under uncertainty J. Quick et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2024.122028
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 02 Apr 2025
Short summary
Here we give a basic form for uncertainty in mean wind speed predicted at one site via measurements taken at another site due to uncertainty in surface roughness when using industry-standard European Wind Atlas (e.g., WAsP) method. We also provide an approximate power-curve form and method to further estimate uncertainty in turbine energy production; this is also useful in AEP estimates. Some implications are also discussed, e.g., prediction over forest or with mesoscale model output.
Here we give a basic form for uncertainty in mean wind speed predicted at one site via...
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