Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128
14 Aug 2025
 | 14 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WES.

Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry

Laury Renac, Marieke Dirksen, Bernard Postema, Mariska Koning, Joseph Jutras, and Wouter Pustjens

Abstract. In the wind industry, estimating extreme wind speeds over a 50-year period using one year of data presents challenges due to the limited representation of extreme events. This study proposes a methodology that combines measurements from Cabauw (The Netherlands) with the ASPIRE 100x100 m horizontal resolution large-eddy simulation. Using 20 years of Cabauw measurements as a reference, we compared four methods to estimate the 50-year wind speed (Vref ). The results show that combining ASPIRE with one year of measurements improves Vref  estimates, matching the 20-year reference within 3 %. With these promising results, our aim is to apply this methodology to 12-month wind measurement campaigns from the wind industry.

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Laury Renac, Marieke Dirksen, Bernard Postema, Mariska Koning, Joseph Jutras, and Wouter Pustjens

Status: open (until 11 Sep 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on wes-2025-128', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Aug 2025 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on wes-2025-128', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2025 reply
Laury Renac, Marieke Dirksen, Bernard Postema, Mariska Koning, Joseph Jutras, and Wouter Pustjens
Laury Renac, Marieke Dirksen, Bernard Postema, Mariska Koning, Joseph Jutras, and Wouter Pustjens

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Short summary
To design safe wind turbines, we need to know how strong the once-in-a-50-year wind could be. However, most wind measurements only last a year, which makes this task challenging. We tested a new method that combines one year of real measurements with detailed computer simulations of the atmosphere. This approach gave results nearly as accurate as using 20 years of measured data. It could help wind energy projects make better decisions with shorter measurement campaigns.
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