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https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
14 Aug 2025
| 14 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WES.
Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry
Abstract. In the wind industry, estimating extreme wind speeds over a 50-year period using one year of data presents challenges due to the limited representation of extreme events. This study proposes a methodology that combines measurements from Cabauw (The Netherlands) with the ASPIRE 100x100 m horizontal resolution large-eddy simulation. Using 20 years of Cabauw measurements as a reference, we compared four methods to estimate the 50-year wind speed (Vref ). The results show that combining ASPIRE with one year of measurements improves Vref estimates, matching the 20-year reference within 3 %. With these promising results, our aim is to apply this methodology to 12-month wind measurement campaigns from the wind industry.
How to cite. Renac, L., Dirksen, M., Postema, B., Koning, M., Jutras, J., and Pustjens, W.: Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry, Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128, in review, 2025.
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Status: open (until 16 Oct 2025)
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RC1: 'Comment on wes-2025-128', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Aug 2025
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The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2025-128/wes-2025-128-RC1-supplement.pdfReplyCitation: https://doi.org/
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RC2: 'Comment on wes-2025-128', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2025
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This study presents a method combining measurements with LES model of 45 storms to calculate the 50-year wind speed. This method shows closest estimate to the value obtained from measurements when compared to a few other methods.
The reviewer thinks that it is an interesting exercise, but the presentation, the method, the analysis are far from being rigorous as a journal publication. The reviewer recommends rejection to the draft in this current form, and the reasons are given below.
- The draft seems written and submitted in a hast. It is a Brief communication, but the sentences still need to be completed properly. E.g., what is “…a.o. wind industry standard” (line 15)? What do the authors think about the sentence like “20 years of Cabauw (reference) (line 59)” which was used in two places.
- The method itself. Even though the estimate is close to the value obtained from measurements, it is not clear how one-year information (“the simulation period encompasses the full year of 2002” and 45 selected…when storms pass”) is sufficient for estimating 50-year wind. The authors also stated this question themselves at the beginning of Introduction.
- The authors say “In the wind industry, 12-month wind measurement campaigns are standard for determining long-term wind climate…”. The reviewer doubts the validity of this statement, and therefore strongly suggests that the authors provide authorized references to this.
- The authors are very brief in explaining what have been done and what have been presented. The measurements are at 80 m, the ERA5 data at 100 m, what about the winds from the LES model? This puts question mark to the eventual results comparison. For method c) the authors wrote “the correction is done based on an offset and bias correction of the bulk of the data and an additional correction of the highest wind speed values” – this sounds like a secret recipe, difficult for the others to repeat.
- There are no discussions on uncertainties related to any of the methods.
- There are no references to other publications who have estimated the 50-year winds at the Cabauw site (e.g. Hansen, B. O., Larsén, X. G., Kelly, M. C., Rathmann, O. S., Berg, J., Bechmann, A., Ejsing Jørgensen, H. (2016). Extreme Wind Calculation Applying Spectral Correction Method – Test and Validation. DTU Wind Energy. (DTU Wind Energy E, Vol. 0098))
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128-RC2
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Laury Renac
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Pondera Consult a company of Haskoning, 6814 CM Arnhem, The Netherlands
Aktis Hydraulics, 8011 CS Zwolle, The Netherlands
Marieke Dirksen
Pondera Consult a company of Haskoning, 6814 CM Arnhem, The Netherlands
Bernard Postema
Whiffle, 2629 JD Delft, The Netherlands
Mariska Koning
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3731 GA De Bilt, The Netherlands
Joseph Jutras
Whiffle, 2629 JD Delft, The Netherlands
Wouter Pustjens
Pondera Consult a company of Haskoning, 6814 CM Arnhem, The Netherlands
Short summary
To design safe wind turbines, we need to know how strong the once-in-a-50-year wind could be. However, most wind measurements only last a year, which makes this task challenging. We tested a new method that combines one year of real measurements with detailed computer simulations of the atmosphere. This approach gave results nearly as accurate as using 20 years of measured data. It could help wind energy projects make better decisions with shorter measurement campaigns.
To design safe wind turbines, we need to know how strong the once-in-a-50-year wind could be....
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