the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry
Abstract. In the wind industry, estimating extreme wind speeds over a 50-year period using one year of data presents challenges due to the limited representation of extreme events. This study proposes a methodology that combines measurements from Cabauw (The Netherlands) with the ASPIRE 100x100 m horizontal resolution large-eddy simulation. Using 20 years of Cabauw measurements as a reference, we compared four methods to estimate the 50-year wind speed (Vref ). The results show that combining ASPIRE with one year of measurements improves Vref estimates, matching the 20-year reference within 3 %. With these promising results, our aim is to apply this methodology to 12-month wind measurement campaigns from the wind industry.
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Status: open (until 11 Sep 2025)
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RC1: 'Comment on wes-2025-128', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Aug 2025
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The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2025-128/wes-2025-128-RC1-supplement.pdf
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RC2: 'Comment on wes-2025-128', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2025
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This study presents a method combining measurements with LES model of 45 storms to calculate the 50-year wind speed. This method shows closest estimate to the value obtained from measurements when compared to a few other methods.
The reviewer thinks that it is an interesting exercise, but the presentation, the method, the analysis are far from being rigorous as a journal publication. The reviewer recommends rejection to the draft in this current form, and the reasons are given below.
- The draft seems written and submitted in a hast. It is a Brief communication, but the sentences still need to be completed properly. E.g., what is “…a.o. wind industry standard” (line 15)? What do the authors think about the sentence like “20 years of Cabauw (reference) (line 59)” which was used in two places.
- The method itself. Even though the estimate is close to the value obtained from measurements, it is not clear how one-year information (“the simulation period encompasses the full year of 2002” and 45 selected…when storms pass”) is sufficient for estimating 50-year wind. The authors also stated this question themselves at the beginning of Introduction.
- The authors say “In the wind industry, 12-month wind measurement campaigns are standard for determining long-term wind climate…”. The reviewer doubts the validity of this statement, and therefore strongly suggests that the authors provide authorized references to this.
- The authors are very brief in explaining what have been done and what have been presented. The measurements are at 80 m, the ERA5 data at 100 m, what about the winds from the LES model? This puts question mark to the eventual results comparison. For method c) the authors wrote “the correction is done based on an offset and bias correction of the bulk of the data and an additional correction of the highest wind speed values” – this sounds like a secret recipe, difficult for the others to repeat.
- There are no discussions on uncertainties related to any of the methods.
- There are no references to other publications who have estimated the 50-year winds at the Cabauw site (e.g. Hansen, B. O., Larsén, X. G., Kelly, M. C., Rathmann, O. S., Berg, J., Bechmann, A., Ejsing Jørgensen, H. (2016). Extreme Wind Calculation Applying Spectral Correction Method – Test and Validation. DTU Wind Energy. (DTU Wind Energy E, Vol. 0098))
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128-RC2
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