Wind Energy Science
Wind Energy Science
WES
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-661-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-661-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Research article
 | 
24 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 24 Feb 2026

Evaluating the impact of inter-annual variability on long-term wind speed predictions

Johanna Borowski, Sandra Schwegmann, Kerstin Avila, and Martin Dörenkämper

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Short summary
Assessing wind resources and mitigating the associated uncertainties are crucial to wind farm profitability. The study quantifies the uncertainty due to inter-annual variability, averaging 6.5 % and ranging from 1 % to 14 %, using long-term, quality-controlled wind measurements from tall met masts in terrain of varying complexity. Further, the results indicate that machine learning models are beneficial in mitigating the impact of inter-annual variability in heterogeneous and complex terrain.
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