The risks of extreme load extrapolation

van Eijk, Stefan F.; Bos, René; Bierbooms, Wim A. A. M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-377-2017

Articles | Volume 2, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-377-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-377-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 2, issue 2

Research article

|

14 Jul 2017

Research article |

| 14 Jul 2017

The risks of extreme load extrapolation

Stefan F. van Eijk, René Bos, and Wim A. A. M. Bierbooms

Data sets

Sandia Wind Turbine Loads Database Sandia National Laboratories http://energy.sandia.gov/?page_id=13173

Short summary

Predicting the 50-year extreme loads for wind turbines requires a tremendous computational effort. Therefore, designers often have to extrapolate from relatively small data sets and have to settle for some degree of uncertainty. We investigated the impact of this uncertainty on practical design problems by drawing subsets from a 96-year load data set and using a crude Monte Carlo method to find the 50-year load. The results show that designers have to be careful with selecting sample sizes.