Articles | Volume 2, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-377-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-377-2017
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2017
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2017

The risks of extreme load extrapolation

Stefan F. van Eijk, René Bos, and Wim A. A. M. Bierbooms

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Cited articles

Agarwal, P. and Manuel, L.: Simulation of offshore wind turbine response for long-term extreme load prediction, Eng. Struct., 31, 2236–2246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2009.04.002, 2009.
Barone, M., Paquette, J., Resor, B., and Manuel, L.: Decades of wind turbine load simulation, 50th AIAA Aerosp. Sci. Meet. Incl. New Horizons Forum Aerosp. Expo., Nashville, TN, United States, 9–12 January 2012, https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2012-1288, 2012a.
Barone, M., Paquette, J., Resor, B., Manuel, L., and Nguyen, H.: Simulating the entire life of an offshore wind turbine, EWEA Annual Event, Copenhagen, Denmark, 16–19 April, 2012b.
Bos, R. and Veldkamp, H. F.: A method to find the 50-year extreme load during production, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 753, 42021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/753/4/042021, 2016.
Bos, R., Bierbooms, W. A. A. M., and van Bussel, G. J. W.: Importance sampling of severe wind gusts, 11th PhD Semin. Wind Energy Eur., Stuttgart, Germany, 23–25 September 2015.
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Short summary
Predicting the 50-year extreme loads for wind turbines requires a tremendous computational effort. Therefore, designers often have to extrapolate from relatively small data sets and have to settle for some degree of uncertainty. We investigated the impact of this uncertainty on practical design problems by drawing subsets from a 96-year load data set and using a crude Monte Carlo method to find the 50-year load. The results show that designers have to be careful with selecting sample sizes.
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