Wind Energy Science
Wind Energy Science
WES
Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2393-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2393-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
Research article
 | 
08 Dec 2022
Research article |  | 08 Dec 2022

Predicting power ramps from joint distributions of future wind speeds

Thomas Muschinski, Moritz N. Lang, Georg J. Mayr, Jakob W. Messner, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon

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Short summary
The power generated by offshore wind farms can vary greatly within a couple of hours, and failing to anticipate these ramp events can lead to costly imbalances in the electrical grid. A novel multivariate Gaussian regression model helps us to forecast not just the means and variances of the next day's hourly wind speeds, but also their corresponding correlations. This information is used to generate more realistic scenarios of power production and accurate estimates for ramp probabilities.
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