Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2393-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2393-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2022
| 08 Dec 2022
Predicting power ramps from joint distributions of future wind speeds
Thomas Muschinski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Moritz N. Lang
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Georg J. Mayr
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Jakob W. Messner
MeteoServe Wetterdienst GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria
Achim Zeileis
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Thorsten Simon
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Department of Mathematics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
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Short summary
The power generated by offshore wind farms can vary greatly within a couple of hours, and failing to anticipate these ramp events can lead to costly imbalances in the electrical grid. A novel multivariate Gaussian regression model helps us to forecast not just the means and variances of the next day's hourly wind speeds, but also their corresponding correlations. This information is used to generate more realistic scenarios of power production and accurate estimates for ramp probabilities.
The power generated by offshore wind farms can vary greatly within a couple of hours, and...
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