Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2393-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2393-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2022
| 08 Dec 2022
Predicting power ramps from joint distributions of future wind speeds
Thomas Muschinski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Moritz N. Lang
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Georg J. Mayr
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Jakob W. Messner
MeteoServe Wetterdienst GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria
Achim Zeileis
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Thorsten Simon
Department of Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Department of Mathematics, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
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Remote-sensing-based approaches have shown potential for minute-scale forecasting and need to be further developed towards an operational use. In this work we extend a lidar-based forecast to an observer-based probabilistic power forecast by combining it with a SCADA-based method. We further aggregate individual turbine power using a copula approach. We found that the observer-based forecast benefits from combining lidar and SCADA data and can outperform persistence for unstable stratification.
Adithya Vemuri, Sophia Buckingham, Wim Munters, Jan Helsen, and Jeroen van Beeck
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1869–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sensitivity of the WRF mesoscale modeling framework in accurately representing and predicting wind-farm-level environmental variables for three extreme weather events over the Belgian North Sea is investigated in this study. The overall results indicate highly sensitive simulation results to the type and combination of physics parameterizations and the type of the weather phenomena, with indications that scale-aware physics parameterizations better reproduce wind-related variables.
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Short summary
The power generated by offshore wind farms can vary greatly within a couple of hours, and failing to anticipate these ramp events can lead to costly imbalances in the electrical grid. A novel multivariate Gaussian regression model helps us to forecast not just the means and variances of the next day's hourly wind speeds, but also their corresponding correlations. This information is used to generate more realistic scenarios of power production and accurate estimates for ramp probabilities.
The power generated by offshore wind farms can vary greatly within a couple of hours, and...
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