Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-158
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-158
30 Oct 2026
 | 30 Oct 2026
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal WES.

A data-driven model framework for predicting operational and load responses of the IEA 3.4 MW wind turbine

Iasonas Tsaklis, Vasilis Pettas, Adrien Guilloré, Nicolau Conti Gost, David Astrain-Juangarcia, Abhinav Anand, Andreas Vad, Anik H. Shah, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Irene Eguinoa, Carlo L. Bottasso, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Tuhfe Göçmen

Abstract. This paper presents a transparent and reproducible machine-learning framework for developing surrogate models that predict operational variables and structural loads of the IEA 3.4 MW wind turbine. The framework is based on a comprehensive dataset of aeroelastic simulations generated across multiple operational modes and wind conditions using HAWC2. Several surrogate modeling approaches are investigated, including Artificial Neural Networks, Gaussian Process Regression and Random Forests. The models are trained and evaluated using multiple feature engineering strategies and data scaling approaches to assess their predictive performance and robustness across different response variables. The primary objective of this work is not to identify a single optimal surrogate model, but to provide a transparent, accessible, and reproducible workflow for surrogate model development for optimization-friendly structural loads and operational response estimation. The article documents the complete process of dataset generation, feature engineering, model training, and performance evaluation, enabling consistent comparison of machine-learning approaches and facilitating future methodological developments. By providing both the simulation dataset and the associated surrogate-modeling workflow, this work aims to support the development, benchmarking, and adoption of scientific machine-learning-based surrogate models within the wind energy research community.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Wind Energy Science.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Iasonas Tsaklis, Vasilis Pettas, Adrien Guilloré, Nicolau Conti Gost, David Astrain-Juangarcia, Abhinav Anand, Andreas Vad, Anik H. Shah, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Irene Eguinoa, Carlo L. Bottasso, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Tuhfe Göçmen

Status: open (until 27 Nov 2026)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Iasonas Tsaklis, Vasilis Pettas, Adrien Guilloré, Nicolau Conti Gost, David Astrain-Juangarcia, Abhinav Anand, Andreas Vad, Anik H. Shah, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Irene Eguinoa, Carlo L. Bottasso, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Tuhfe Göçmen

Data sets

Datasets as supplement for the journal publication "Modeling wind farm response: a modular, integrated, and multi-stakeholder approach" Adrien Guilloré, Anik Hirenkumar Shah, Abhinav Anand https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18634031

IEA 3.4 MW Reference wind turbine HAWC2 Input & Output files Tuhfe Göçmen, Vasilis Pettas, Iasonas Tsaklis, Nicolau Conti Gost https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22911878

IEA 3.4 MW Surrogate Model Library Iasonas Tsaklis, Vasilis Pettas, Tuhfe Göçmen, David Astrain-Juangarcia, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22670615

Model code and software

Surrogate model development IEA 3.4 MW Iasonas Tsaklis, Vasilis Pettas, Tuhfe Göçmen, David Astrain-Juangarcia, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22685724

Iasonas Tsaklis, Vasilis Pettas, Adrien Guilloré, Nicolau Conti Gost, David Astrain-Juangarcia, Abhinav Anand, Andreas Vad, Anik H. Shah, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Irene Eguinoa, Carlo L. Bottasso, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Tuhfe Göçmen
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Latest update: 30 Oct 2026
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Short summary
This study provides an openly accessible dataset of wind turbine simulations and a reproducible framework for developing and comparing machine-learning models that predict turbine operation and structural loads. By covering diverse operating conditions, these resources help researchers understand turbine behaviour, test new prediction methods, and support future wind energy research. The work promotes transparent, consistent, and accessible model development.
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