Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115–128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115–128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016

Research article 24 Aug 2016

Research article | 24 Aug 2016

Year-to-year correlation, record length, and overconfidence in wind resource assessment

Nicola Bodini et al.

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (13 Jul 2016) by Jakob Mann
AR by Mark Handschy on behalf of the Authors (20 Jul 2016)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (12 Aug 2016) by Jakob Mann
ED: Publish as is (12 Aug 2016) by Jakob Mann(Chief Editor)
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Short summary
Year-to-year variability of wind speeds limits the certainty of wind-plant preconstruction energy estimates ("resource assessments"). Using 62-year records from 60 stations across Canada we show that resource highs and lows persist for decades, which makes estimates 2–3 times less certain than if annual levels were uncorrelated. Comparing chronological data records with randomly permuted versions of the same data reveals this in an unambiguous and easy-to-understand way.