Articles | Volume 1, issue 2
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115–128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115–128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016

Research article 24 Aug 2016

Research article | 24 Aug 2016

Year-to-year correlation, record length, and overconfidence in wind resource assessment

Nicola Bodini et al.

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Cited articles

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Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., St. George, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Woodhouse, C. A., and Deser, C.: The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium, J. Climate, 26, 5863–5878, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00732.1, 2013.
Azorin-Molina, C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., McVicar, T. R., Jerez, S., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., López-Moreno, J.-I., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R. M., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., and Espírito-Santo, F.: Homogenization and Assessment of Observed Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends over Spain and Portugal, 1961–2011, J. Climate, 27, 3692–3712, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00652.1, 2014.
Bakker, A. R. and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Estimation of persistence and trends in geostrophic wind speed for the assessment of wind energy yields in Northwest Europe, Clim. Dynam., 39, 767–782, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1248-1, 2012.
Bayley, G. V. and Hammersley, J. M.: The “Effective” Number of Independent Observations in an Autocorrelated Time Series, Supplement to the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 8, 184–197, https://doi.org/10.2307/2983560, 1946.
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Year-to-year variability of wind speeds limits the certainty of wind-plant preconstruction energy estimates ("resource assessments"). Using 62-year records from 60 stations across Canada we show that resource highs and lows persist for decades, which makes estimates 2–3 times less certain than if annual levels were uncorrelated. Comparing chronological data records with randomly permuted versions of the same data reveals this in an unambiguous and easy-to-understand way.