Wind Energy Science
Wind Energy Science
WES
Articles | Volume 10, issue 7
Articles | Volume 10, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1471-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1471-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 10, issue 7
Research article
 | 
28 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2025

Estimating long-term annual energy production from shorter-time-series data: methods and verification with a 10-year large-eddy simulation of a large offshore wind farm

Bernard Postema, Remco A. Verzijlbergh, Pim van Dorp, Peter Baas, and Harm J. J. Jonker

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Preprint under review for WES
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Cited articles

Alonzo, B., Cassas, M., Raynaud, L., Verzijlbergh, R., Houf, D., Baas, P., and Dsouza, B.: Smart4RES: Report on improved NWP with higher spatial and temporal resolution, https://www.smart4res.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Smart4RES_Deliverable_D2.2.pdf (last access: 24 July 2025), 2022. a
Baas, P., Verzijlbergh, R., van Dorp, P., and Jonker, H.: Investigating energy production and wake losses of multi-gigawatt offshore wind farms with atmospheric large-eddy simulation, Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 787–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-787-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
Bieringer, P. E., Piña, A. J., Lorenzetti, D. M., Jonker, H. J., Sohn, M. D., Annunzio, A. J., and Fry, R. N.: A graphics processing unit (GPU) approach to large eddy simulation (LES) for transport and contaminant dispersion, Atmosphere, 12, 890, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070890, 2021. a
Breton, S. P., Sumner, J., Sørensen, J. N., Hansen, K. S., Sarmast, S., and Ivanell, S.: A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 375, 20160097, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0097, 2017. a
Calaf, M., Meneveau, C., and Meyers, J.: Large eddy simulation study of fully developed wind-turbine array boundary layers, Phys. Fluids, 22, 015110, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3291077, 2010. a
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Atmospheric large-eddy simulation is a technique that simulates weather conditions in high detail and is used to plan new wind farms. This research presents ways to estimate the long-term (10-year) power production of a wind farm without having to simulate 10 years of weather and instead simulating much less (1 year or less). The results show that the methods reduce the uncertainty in power production estimates by an order of magnitude and that wind observations can be included as well to add more insight.
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