Articles | Volume 10, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2117-2025
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2117-2025
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2025

Evaluating the ability of the operational High Resolution Rapid Refresh model version 3 (HRRRv3) and version 4 (HRRRv4) to forecast wind ramp events in the US Great Plains

Laura Bianco, Reagan Mendeke, Jakob Lindblom, Irina V. Djalalova, David D. Turner, and James M. Wilczak

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Cited articles

Akish, E., Bianco, L., Djalalova, I. V., Wilczak, J. M., Olson, J., Freedman, J., Finley, C., and Cline, J.: Measuring the Impact of Additional Instrumentations on the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models at Forecasting Wind Ramp Events during the first Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP), Wind Energy, 22, 1165–1174, https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2347, 2019. 
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility: ARM Best Estimate Data Products (ARMBEATM), 2020-01-01 to 2022-01-01, Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility, Lamont, OK (C1), Compiled by X. Chen and S. Xie, ARM Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5439/1333748 (last access: 3 April 2025), 1994. 
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility: Carbon Dioxide Flux Measurement Systems (CO2FLXWIND60M), 2020-01-01 to 2022-12-31, Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility, Lamont, OK (C1), Compiled by S. Biraud, D. Billesbach and S. Chan, ARM Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5439/1972271 (last access: 6 February 2025), 2015. 
Aviation Weather Center: METARs & TAFs, Aviation Weather Center [data set], https://aviationweather.gov/data/metar/ (last access: 11 September 2025), 2025. 
Banta, R. M., Newsom, R. K., Lundquist, J. K., Pichugina, Y. L., Coulter, R. L., and Mahrt, L.: Nocturnal low-level jet characteristics over Kansas during CASES-99, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 105, 221–252, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019992330866, 2002. 
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Short summary
Adding more renewable energy into the electric grid is a critical part of the strategy to increase energy availability. Reliable numerical weather prediction (NWP) models need to be able to predict the intrinsic nature of weather-dependent resources such as wind ramp events, as wind energy could quickly be available in abundance or temporarily cease to exist. We assess the ability of the operational High Resolution Rapid Refresh NWP model to forecast wind ramp events in the two most recent versions.
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