Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1205-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1205-2026
Research article
 | 
14 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 14 Apr 2026

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of engineering models for wind farm–atmosphere interaction

Frederik Aerts, Koen Devesse, and Johan Meyers

Data sets

A reference database of wind-farm large-eddy simulations for parametrizing effects of blockage and gravity waves L. Lanzilao and J. Meyers https://doi.org/10.48804/L45LTT

Model code and software

Uncertainty Modeling toolbox for Bayesian data Re-Analysis (UMBRA) Frederik Aerts and Johan Meyers https://gitlab.kuleuven.be/TFSO-software/umbra

Wind-fArm gravitY-waVe and blockagE code K. Devesse et al. https://doi.org/10.48804/XMNVVY

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Short summary
This paper presents an improved Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework for calibrating and comparing wind farm flow models. It quantifies the parameter uncertainty in a joint posterior distribution as well as the model uncertainty. Applied to a large-eddy simulation dataset for wind farm blockage, it compares a standard wake model and an atmospheric perturbation model, showing the latter yields lower model uncertainty. The framework is available in the open-source Python package UMBRA (Uncertainty Modeling toolbox for Bayesian data Re-Analysis).
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