Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 08 Apr 2024
| 08 Apr 2024
Machine learning methods to improve spatial predictions of coastal wind speed profiles and low-level jets using single-level ERA5 data
Christoffer Hallgren
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Jeanie A. Aird
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
Stefan Ivanell
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Heiner Körnich
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Ville Vakkari
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, Chemical Resource Beneficiation, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
Sara C. Pryor
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
Erik Sahlée
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Aerosol particles are a complex component of the atmospheric system the effects of which are among the most uncertain in climate change projections. Using data collected at 62 stations, this study provides the most up-to-date picture of the spatial distribution of particle number concentration and size distribution worldwide, with the aim of contributing to better representation of aerosols and their interactions with clouds in models and, therefore, better evaluation of their impact on climate.
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We proposed a method to derive a convective boundary layer height, using insects in radar observations, and we investigated the consistency of these retrievals among different radar frequencies (5, 35 and 94 GHz). This method can be applied to radars at other measurement stations and serve as additional way to estimate the boundary layer height during summer. The entrainment zone was also observed by the 5 GHz radar above the boundary layer in the form of a Bragg scatter layer.
Philipp G. Eger, Luc Vereecken, Rolf Sander, Jan Schuladen, Nicolas Sobanski, Horst Fischer, Einar Karu, Jonathan Williams, Ville Vakkari, Tuukka Petäjä, Jos Lelieveld, Andrea Pozzer, and John N. Crowley
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Christoffer Hallgren, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Ville Vakkari, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1205–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1205-2021, 2021
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As wind power becomes more popular, there is a growing demand for accurate power production forecasts. In this paper we investigated different methods to improve wind power forecasts for an offshore location in the Baltic Sea, using both simple and more advanced techniques. The performance of the methods is evaluated for different weather conditions. Smoothing the forecast was found to be the best method in general, but we recommend selecting which method to use based on the forecasted weather.
Susanna Hagelin, Roohollah Azad, Magnus Lindskog, Harald Schyberg, and Heiner Körnich
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In this paper we study the impact of using wind observations from the Aeolus satellite, which provides wind speed profiles globally, in our numerical weather prediction system using a regional model covering the Nordic countries. The wind speed profiles from Aeolus are assimilated by the model, and we see that they have an impact on both the model analysis and forecast, though given the relatively few observations available the impact is often small.
Evgenia Belova, Sheila Kirkwood, Peter Voelger, Sourav Chatterjee, Karathazhiyath Satheesan, Susanna Hagelin, Magnus Lindskog, and Heiner Körnich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5415–5428, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5415-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5415-2021, 2021
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Wind measurements from two radars (ESRAD in Arctic Sweden and MARA at the Indian Antarctic station Maitri) are compared with lidar winds from the ESA satellite Aeolus, for July–December 2019. The aim is to check if Aeolus data processing is adequate for the sunlit conditions of polar summer. Agreement is generally good with bias in Aeolus winds < 1 m/s in most circumstances. The exception is a large bias (7 m/s) when the satellite has crossed a sunlit Antarctic ice cap before passing MARA.
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2001–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, 2021
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Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Janne Lampilahti, Katri Leino, Antti Manninen, Pyry Poutanen, Anna Franck, Maija Peltola, Paula Hietala, Lisa Beck, Lubna Dada, Lauriane Quéléver, Ronja Öhrnberg, Ying Zhou, Madeleine Ekblom, Ville Vakkari, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petäjä, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7901–7915, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7901-2021, 2021
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Using airborne measurements we observed increased number concentrations of sub-25 nm particles in the upper residual layer. These particles may be entrained into the well-mixed boundary layer and observed at the surface. We attribute our observations to new particle formation in the topmost part of the residual layer.
Stephanie Bohlmann, Xiaoxia Shang, Ville Vakkari, Elina Giannakaki, Ari Leskinen, Kari E. J. Lehtinen, Sanna Pätsi, and Mika Komppula
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7083–7097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7083-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7083-2021, 2021
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Measurements of the multi-wavelength Raman polarization lidar PollyXT and a Halo Photonics StreamLine Doppler lidar have been combined with measurements of pollen type and concentration using a traditional pollen trap at the rural forest site in Vehmasmäki, Finland. Depolarization ratios were measured at three wavelengths. High depolarization ratios were detected during an event with high birch and spruce pollen concentrations and a wavelength dependence of the depolarization ratio was observed.
Ville Vakkari, Holger Baars, Stephanie Bohlmann, Johannes Bühl, Mika Komppula, Rodanthi-Elisavet Mamouri, and Ewan James O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5807–5820, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5807-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5807-2021, 2021
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The depolarization ratio is a valuable parameter for aerosol categorization from remote sensing measurements. Here, we introduce particle depolarization ratio measurements at the 1565 nm wavelength, which is substantially longer than previously utilized wavelengths and enhances our capabilities to study the wavelength dependency of the particle depolarization ratio.
Evgenia Belova, Peter Voelger, Sheila Kirkwood, Susanna Hagelin, Magnus Lindskog, Heiner Körnich, Sourav Chatterjee, and Karathazhiyath Satheesan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2813–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2813-2021, 2021
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We validate horizontal wind measurements at altitudes of 0.5–14 km made with atmospheric radars: ESRAD located near Kiruna in the Swedish Arctic and MARA at the Indian research station Maitri in Antarctica, by comparison with radiosondes, the regional model HARMONIE-AROME and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. Good agreement was found in general, and radar bias and uncertainty were estimated. These radars are planned to be used for validation of winds measured by lidar by the ESA satellite Aeolus.
David Brus, Jani Gustafsson, Ville Vakkari, Osku Kemppinen, Gijs de Boer, and Anne Hirsikko
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 517–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-517-2021, 2021
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This paper summarizes Finnish Meteorological Institute and Kansas State University unmanned aerial vehicle measurements during the summer 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) campaign in the San Luis Valley, providing an overview of the rotorcraft deployed, payloads, scientific goals and flight strategies and presenting observations of atmospheric thermodynamics and aerosol and gas parameters in the vertical column.
Marta Wenta, David Brus, Konstantinos Doulgeris, Ville Vakkari, and Agnieszka Herman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 33–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-33-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-33-2021, 2021
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Representations of the atmospheric boundary layer over sea ice are a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. To increase our understanding of the relevant processes, a field campaign was carried out over the sea ice in the Baltic Sea from 27 February to 2 March 2020. Observations included 27 unmanned aerial vehicle flights, four photogrammetry missions, and shore-based automatic weather station and lidar wind measurements. The dataset obtained is used to validate model results.
Søren Juhl Andersen, Simon-Philippe Breton, Björn Witha, Stefan Ivanell, and Jens Nørkær Sørensen
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1689-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1689-2020, 2020
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The complexity of wind farm operation increases as the wind farms get larger and larger. Therefore, researchers from three universities have simulated numerous different large wind farms as part of an international benchmark. The study shows how simple engineering models can capture the general trends, but high-fidelity simulations are required in order to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with power production of the wind farms and hence the potential profitability and risks.
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Short summary
Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of the power production. However, models struggle to capture both the speed and the shape of the wind profile. Using machine learning methods based on the model data, we show that the predictions can be improved drastically. The work focuses on three coastal sites, spread over the Northern Hemisphere (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the US Atlantic coast) with similar results for all sites.
Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of...
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