Articles | Volume 10, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2551-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2551-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
11 Nov 2025
Brief communication |
| 11 Nov 2025
| 11 Nov 2025
Brief communication: Enhanced representation of the power spectra of wind speed in convection-permitting models
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Land Environment Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
Xiaoli Guo Larsén
Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Giorgia Fosser
University School for Advanced Studies – IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Eleonora Dallan
Department of Land Environment Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
Marco Borga
Department of Land Environment Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
Francesco Marra
Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
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Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Fracesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-172, 2025
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This research presents the first use of SMEV for wind extremes, extending it to wind energy applications. We use a categories framework combining climate, roughness, and topography for CPM evaluation. We find that model formulation drives inter-model uncertainties, rather than surface conditions. Also, there is a higher model agreement in winter (synoptic) and lower in summer (convective). CPM uncertainty analysis improves the reliability of extreme winds for design parameters.
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Fracesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-172, 2025
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This research presents the first use of SMEV for wind extremes, extending it to wind energy applications. We use a categories framework combining climate, roughness, and topography for CPM evaluation. We find that model formulation drives inter-model uncertainties, rather than surface conditions. Also, there is a higher model agreement in winter (synoptic) and lower in summer (convective). CPM uncertainty analysis improves the reliability of extreme winds for design parameters.
Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Yannis Markonis, Francesco Marra, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Vincenzo Levizzani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4929–4949, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4929-2025, 2025
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This study compared global satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets to assess diurnal variability. We found that all datasets capture key diurnal precipitation patterns, with maximum precipitation in the afternoon over land and early morning over the ocean. However, there are differences in the exact timing and amount of precipitation. This suggests that it is better to use a combination of datasets for potential applications rather than relying on a single dataset.
Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Elena Cristiano, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Federica Remondi, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2565–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, 2025
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Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Arezoo RafieeiNasab, and Alessandro Anav
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2752, 2025
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Predicting how much water flows from rivers into the Mediterranean is challenging due to climate change and human impacts. We compared two computer models—CaMa-Flood and WRF-Hydro—to see which performs better. We found that WRF-Hydro, especially after calibration, more accurately simulates river discharge and seasonal flow changes. These results can help improve future water forecasts and support planning for floods and droughts in the region.
Francesco Marra, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, Roberto Greco, and Thom Bogaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3378, 2025
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We highlight an important conceptual difference between the duration used in intensity-duration thresholds and the duration used in the intensity-duration-frequency curves that has been overlooked by the landslide literature so far.
Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Emmanouil Flaounas, Gianmaria Sannino, and Alessandro Anav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 627–643, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-627-2025, 2025
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This study explores how sea surface energy influences both the atmosphere and ocean at various vertical levels during extreme Mediterranean cyclones. It focuses on cyclones' precipitation and wind speed response, as well as on ocean temperature variation. The findings highlight the regional coupled model's ability to coherently represent the thermodynamic and dynamic processes of the cyclones across both the atmosphere and the ocean.
Branko Kosović, Sukanta Basu, Jacob Berg, Larry K. Berg, Sue E. Haupt, Xiaoli G. Larsén, Joachim Peinke, Richard J. A. M. Stevens, Paul Veers, and Simon Watson
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-42, 2025
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Most human activity happens in the layer of the atmosphere which extends a few hundred meters to a couple of kilometers above the surface of the Earth. The flow in this layer is turbulent. Turbulence impacts wind power production and turbine lifespan. Optimizing wind turbine performance requires understanding how turbulence affects both wind turbine efficiency and reliability. This paper points to gaps in our knowledge that need to be addressed to effectively utilize wind resources.
Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Alessandro Anav, Cenlin He, and Tzu-Shun Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1221–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1221-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates how different methods of simulating runoff impact river flow predictions globally. By comparing seven approaches within the Noah-Multi-parameterisation (Noah-MP) land surface model, we found significant differences in accuracy, with some methods underestimating or overestimating runoff. The results are crucial for improving water resource management and flood prediction. Our work highlights the need for precise modelling to better prepare for climate-related challenges.
Sara Müller, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, and Fei Hu
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-7, 2025
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Wind farms are being developed in areas prone to tropical cyclones. However, it remains unclear whether turbulence models in current design standards, such as the Mann uniform shear model, are suitable for these conditions. For the first time the Mann model is assessed using high-frequency tropical cyclone measurements from four typhoons. Enhanced spectral energy is found at low wavenumbers, especially in the crosswind component during typhoon conditions.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
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Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
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The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3549–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, 2024
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Sara Müller, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, and David Robert Verelst
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1153-2024, 2024
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Tropical cyclone winds are challenging for wind turbines. We analyze a tropical cyclone before landfall in a mesoscale model. The simulated wind speeds and storm structure are sensitive to the boundary parametrization. However, independent of the boundary layer parametrization, the median change in wind speed and wind direction with height is small relative to wind turbine design standards. Strong spatial organization of wind shear and veer along the rainbands may increase wind turbine loads.
Jana Fischereit, Henrik Vedel, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Natalie E. Theeuwes, Gregor Giebel, and Eigil Kaas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2855–2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2855-2024, 2024
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Wind farms impact local wind and turbulence. To incorporate these effects in weather forecasting, the explicit wake parameterization (EWP) is added to the forecasting model HARMONIE–AROME. We evaluate EWP using flight data above and downstream of wind farms, comparing it with an alternative wind farm parameterization and another weather model. Results affirm the correct implementation of EWP, emphasizing the necessity of accounting for wind farm effects in accurate weather forecasting.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
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We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
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Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
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Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We study how climate change will impact extreme winds and choice of turbine class. We use data from 18 CMIP6 members from a historic and a future period to access the change in the extreme winds. The analysis shows an overall increase in the extreme winds in the North Sea and the southern Baltic Sea, but a decrease over the Scandinavian Peninsula and most of the Baltic Sea. The analysis is inconclusive to whether higher or lower classes of turbines will be installed in the future.
Xiaoli Guo Larsén and Søren Ott
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2457–2468, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2457-2022, 2022
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A method is developed for calculating the extreme wind in tropical-cyclone-affected water areas. The method is based on the spectral correction method that fills in the missing wind variability to the modeled time series, guided by best track data. The paper provides a detailed recipe for applying the method and the 50-year winds of equivalent 10 min temporal resolution from 10 to 150 m in several tropical-cyclone-affected regions.
Giulia Zuecco, Anam Amin, Jay Frentress, Michael Engel, Chiara Marchina, Tommaso Anfodillo, Marco Borga, Vinicio Carraro, Francesca Scandellari, Massimo Tagliavini, Damiano Zanotelli, Francesco Comiti, and Daniele Penna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3673–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3673-2022, 2022
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We analyzed the variability in the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by two different methods, i.e., cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD) and Scholander-type pressure chamber (SPC). Our results indicated that the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by CVD and SPC was significantly different. We concluded that plant water extraction by SPC is not an alternative for CVD as SPC mostly extracts the mobile plant water whereas CVD retrieves all water stored in the sampled tissue.
Jana Fischereit, Kurt Schaldemose Hansen, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Maarten Paul van der Laan, Pierre-Elouan Réthoré, and Juan Pablo Murcia Leon
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1069–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1069-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1069-2022, 2022
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Wind turbines extract kinetic energy from the flow to create electricity. This induces a wake of reduced wind speed downstream of a turbine and consequently downstream of a wind farm. Different types of numerical models have been developed to calculate this effect. In this study, we compared models of different complexity, together with measurements over two wind farms. We found that higher-fidelity models perform better and the considered rapid models cannot fully capture the wake effect.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
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We present a new method for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall using radar data, and we use it to examine coastal and orographic effects on extremes. We identify three regimes, directly related to precipitation physical processes, which respond differently to these forcings. The methods and results are of interest for researchers and practitioners using radar for the analysis of extremes, risk managers, water resources managers, and climate change impact studies.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
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As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
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Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Marc Imberger, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, and Neil Davis
Adv. Geosci., 56, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-77-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-77-2021, 2021
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Events like mid-latitude storms with their high winds have an impact on wind energy production and forecasting of such events is crucial. This study investigates the capabilities of a global weather prediction model MPAS and looks at how key parameters like storm intensity, arrival time and duration are represented compared to measurements and traditional methods. It is found that storm intensity is represented well while model drifts negatively influence estimation of arrival time and duration.
Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2811–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, 2021
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Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human–water systems. We present two methods to collect such data, and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
Xiaoli G. Larsén and Jana Fischereit
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3141–3158, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3141-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3141-2021, 2021
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For the first time, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) calculated from the explicit wake parameterization (EWP) in WRF is examined using high-frequency measurements over a wind farm and compared with that calculated using the Fitch et al. (2012) scheme. We examined the effect of farm-induced TKE advection in connection with the Fitch scheme. Through a case study with a low-level jet (LLJ), we analyzed the key features of LLJs and raised the issue of interaction between wind farms and LLJs.
Yair Rinat, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Asher Metzger, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Marcelo Rosensaft, and Efrat Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 917–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, 2021
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Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
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Short summary
We examined the power spectra of wind speed in three convection-permitting models in central Europe and found that these models have a better representation of wind variability characteristics than standard wind datasets like the New European Wind Atlas, due to different simulation approaches, providing more reliable extreme wind predictions.
We examined the power spectra of wind speed in three convection-permitting models in central...
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