Wind Energy Science
Wind Energy Science
WES
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Research article
 | 
09 Oct 2018
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2018

Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: a case study

Jennie Molinder, Heiner Körnich, Esbjörn Olsson, Hans Bergström, and Anna Sjöblom

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Short summary
This study shows that using probabilistic forecasting can improve next-day production forecasts for wind energy in cold climates. Wind turbines can suffer from severe production losses due to icing on the turbine blades. Short-range forecasts including the icing-related production losses are therefore valuable when planning for next-day energy production. Probabilistic forecasting can also provide a likelihood for icing and icing-related production losses.
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