Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018
Research article
 | 
09 Oct 2018
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2018

Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: a case study

Jennie Molinder, Heiner Körnich, Esbjörn Olsson, Hans Bergström, and Anna Sjöblom

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Cited articles

Al-Yahyai, S., Charabi, Y., Al-Badi, A., and Gastli, A.: Nested ensemble NWP approach for wind energy assessment, Renew. Energ., 37, 150–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2011.06.014, 2011. a
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Bergström, H., Olsson, E., Söderberg, S., Thorsson, P., and Undén, P.: Wind power in cold climates, Ice mapping methods, Tech. rep., Elforsk, Stockholm, available at: http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:704372&dswid=6571 (last access: 1 October 2018), 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
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This study shows that using probabilistic forecasting can improve next-day production forecasts for wind energy in cold climates. Wind turbines can suffer from severe production losses due to icing on the turbine blades. Short-range forecasts including the icing-related production losses are therefore valuable when planning for next-day energy production. Probabilistic forecasting can also provide a likelihood for icing and icing-related production losses.
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