Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: a case study

Molinder, Jennie; Körnich, Heiner; Olsson, Esbjörn; Bergström, Hans; Sjöblom, Anna

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018

Articles | Volume 3, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-667-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 3, issue 2

Research article

|

09 Oct 2018

Research article |

| 09 Oct 2018

Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: a case study

Jennie Molinder, Heiner Körnich, Esbjörn Olsson, Hans Bergström, and Anna Sjöblom

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Final revised paper (published on 09 Oct 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 18 Sep 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Oct 2017
- AC1: 'Questions for clarification', Jennie P. Söderman, 24 Oct 2017
  - RC2: 'Clarifications', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Nov 2017
- AC2: 'Reply to referee#1', Jennie Molinder, 13 Apr 2018
RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Apr 2018
- AC3: 'Reply to referee#2', Jennie Molinder, 13 Apr 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Jennie Molinder on behalf of the Authors (09 May 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 May 2018) by Jakob Mann

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (18 Jun 2018)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Jun 2018) by Jakob Mann

AR by Jennie Molinder on behalf of the Authors (29 Jun 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (16 Jul 2018) by Jakob Mann

ED: Publish as is (12 Sep 2018) by Jakob Mann

ED: Publish as is (12 Sep 2018) by Jakob Mann (Chief editor)

AR by Jennie Molinder on behalf of the Authors (17 Sep 2018)

Short summary

This study shows that using probabilistic forecasting can improve next-day production forecasts for wind energy in cold climates. Wind turbines can suffer from severe production losses due to icing on the turbine blades. Short-range forecasts including the icing-related production losses are therefore valuable when planning for next-day energy production. Probabilistic forecasting can also provide a likelihood for icing and icing-related production losses.