Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-311-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-311-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties
Joseph C. Y. Lee
National Wind Technology Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
Golden, CO 80401, USA
M. Jason Fields
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Wind Technology Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
Golden, CO 80401, USA
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77 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Bayesian uncertainty quantification of engineering models for wind farm–atmosphere interaction F. Aerts et al.
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- A New Decision Process for Choosing the Wind Resource Assessment Workflow with the Best Compromise between Accuracy and Costs for a Given Project in Complex Terrain S. Barber et al.
- Characterization of wind turbine flow through nacelle-mounted lidars: a review S. Letizia et al.
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- Investigating the physical mechanisms that modify wind plant blockage in stable boundary layers M. Sanchez Gomez et al.
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- Characterization of atmospheric coherent structures and their impact on a utility-scale wind turbine A. Abraham & J. Hong
- Beyond the First Generation of Wind Modeling for Resource Assessment and Siting: From Meteorology to Uncertainty Quantification M. Kelly
- Grand challenges in the design, manufacture, and operation of future wind turbine systems P. Veers et al.
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77 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Simplified model for helical vortex dynamics in the wake of an asymmetric rotor A. Abraham et al.
- The wide range of factors contributing to wind resource assessment accuracy in complex terrain S. Barber et al.
- Wind Energy Supply Profiling and Offshore Potential in South Africa S. Karamanski & G. Erfort
- Experimental investigation of an enhancement system to improve wind turbines power generation A. Alkhalidi et al.
- Assessing the feasibility of electrifying container ships for sustainable maritime transport R. Babaei et al.
- Numerical investigation of rotor asymmetry to promote wake recovery A. Abraham et al.
- Wind power estimation on local scale—A case study of representativeness of reanalysis data and data-driven analysis I. Schicker et al.
- Bayesian uncertainty quantification of engineering models for wind farm–atmosphere interaction F. Aerts et al.
- Evaluating wind speed and power forecasts for wind energy applications using an open-source and systematic validation framework J. Lee et al.
- Assessing renewable wind and solar energy yield with gridded climate datasets P. Drobinski
- Numerical investigation of the vortical structures in the near wake of a model wind turbine T. Weislein et al.
- Characterization of local wind profiles: a random forest approach for enhanced wind profile extrapolation F. Rouholahnejad & J. Gottschall
- A perspective on lessons learned and future needs for wind energy field campaigns N. Bodini et al.
- Exploring cooperation between wind farms: a wake steering optimization study of the Belgian offshore wind farm cluster B. Foloppe et al.
- Offshore Wind Farm Economic Evaluation Under Uncertainty and Market Risk Mitigation A. Caputo et al.
- Wind Reference Year: A New Approach R. Lázaro et al.
- Assessment of Onshore and Offshore Wind Energy Potential in the Eastern Baltic Sea Region: LCOE and Wind Turbine Layout Optimisation S. Orlova et al.
- Validation of European wind generation time series simulation: Importance of wakes, micro-scale adjustments and stochastic simulations S. Nayak et al.
- Robust optimal design of hybrid renewable energy systems for constant green hydrogen supply E. Corbean et al.
- A three-dimensional, analytical wind turbine wake model: Flow acceleration, empirical correlations, and continuity Z. Sadek et al.
- Preliminary Techno-Economic Analysis of Wind Power Plant Development in Central Java S. Alokabel & M. Setiawan
- Materials and systems for polymer-based Metallocene batteries: Status and challenges S. Beladi-Mousavi & L. Walder
- Exploring the Interdependence of Vertical Extrapolation Uncertainties in Repowering Wind Farms P. Mazoyer et al.
- Can mesoscale models capture the effect from cluster wakes offshore? M. Gomez et al.
- Evaluating the impact of inter-annual variability on long-term wind speed predictions J. Borowski et al.
- A Support Process for Early-Stage Wind Farm Repowering Decisions Using Constrained Optimization Techniques to Address Uncertainty H. Norton et al.
- Prediction of hourly wind speed time series at unsampled locations using machine learning F. Houndekindo & T. Ouarda
- Optimization and control strategy for wind turbine aerodynamic performance under uncertainties H. Tian et al.
- Sensitivity of multiscale large Eddy simulations for wind power calculations in complex terrain G. De Moliner et al.
- Overview of recent observations and simulations from the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) field campaign P. Moriarty et al.
- Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production D. Rosencrans et al.
- Assessment of the theoretical potential of onshore wind power plants in Poland in the context of the required distance from residential buildings S. Pelczar
- Overestimation of the recent observed near-surface wind speed recovery in China Y. Yan et al.
- Overview of preparation for the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) P. Moriarty et al.
- Predictive digital twin for wind energy systems: a literature review E. Kandemir et al.
- Modular deep learning approach for wind farm power forecasting and wake loss prediction S. Ally et al.
- Evaluation of the potential for wake steering for U.S. land-based wind power plants D. Bensason et al.
- Levelized cost analysis in fixed-bottom offshore wind farms in the Colombian Caribbean J. Illidge-Araujo et al.
- Sustainable pathways for hydrogen Production: Metrics, Trends, and strategies for a Zero-Carbon future A. Ibrahim Idriss et al.
- Power Generation by Offshore Wind Turbines: An Overview on Recent Research and Developments S. Basack et al.
- How do convective cold pools influence the atmospheric boundary layer near two wind turbines in northern Germany? J. Thayer et al.
- An Adaptive Multi-Scale Framework for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Sustainable Grids R. Liu et al.
- The sensitivity of the Fitch wind farm parameterization to a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme A. Rybchuk et al.
- Experimental investigation of blade tip vortex behavior in the wake of asymmetric rotors A. Abraham & T. Leweke
- Blade-resolved and actuator line simulations of rotor wakes A. Ribeiro et al.
- A New Decision Process for Choosing the Wind Resource Assessment Workflow with the Best Compromise between Accuracy and Costs for a Given Project in Complex Terrain S. Barber et al.
- Characterization of wind turbine flow through nacelle-mounted lidars: a review S. Letizia et al.
- Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States
- Multi-fidelity vortex simulations of rotor flows: Validation against detailed wake measurements N. Ramos-García et al.
- Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production R. Hammond & E. Simley
- Investigating the physical mechanisms that modify wind plant blockage in stable boundary layers M. Sanchez Gomez et al.
- Analysis of the systematic errors of energy yield assessment in the context of wind farm repowering P. Mazoyer et al.
- Evaluation and Comparison of Different Methods for Improving Fault Ride-Through Capability in Grid-Tied Permanent Magnet Synchronous Wind Generators M. Mahmoud et al.
- Machine learning-based estimation of icing losses in wind farms: Applications in pre-construction energy yield assessment S. Stefanov et al.
- Machine learning for predicting offshore vertical wind profiles F. Rouholahnejad et al.
- Effect of pitch on nonlinear dynamics of helical vortex disturbed by long-wave instability Y. Hattori & A. Hirano
- Spatio-temporal prediction of wind power production-based on empirical data in Great Britain from 2021 to 2023 Y. Huang
- Uncertainty in North Sea offshore wind power: contributions of reanalysis forcing, turbine type, and wake parameterization A. Elizalde et al.
- Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain J. Yan et al.
- Wind power production from very large offshore wind farms S. Pryor et al.
- The wind farm as a sensor: learning and explaining orographic and plant-induced flow heterogeneities from operational data R. Braunbehrens et al.
- Wind-based microgrids: A business analysis and their role in mitigating grid congestion M. Cope & G. Xydis
- Offshore wind power system economic evaluation framework under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty A. Caputo et al.
- A Dependability Neural Network Approach for Short-Term Production Estimation of a Wind Power Plant F. Famoso et al.
- Balancing cost-efficiency and sustainability in offshore hybrid renewable energy systems: A case study of Palau River M. Terkes et al.
- Uncertainty Quantification for an Automatised RANS-Based Wind Resource Assessment Approach S. Remmler et al.
- A novel circle-packing NLP model for offshore wind farm layout and cable optimization A. Negrete-Romero et al.
- Development and validation of a hybrid data-driven model-based wake steering controller and its application at a utility-scale wind plant P. Bachant et al.
- Meta model approach for real time and short-term forecasting of wind turbine power generation with interactive 24 h dashboard G. Chauhan et al.
- Evaluating Wind Speed and Power Forecasts for Wind Energy Applications Using an Open-Source and Systematic Validation Framework J. Lee et al.
- Using Observed and Modelled Heat Fluxes for Improved Extrapolation of Wind Distributions R. Floors et al.
- Accounting for Instrument Tilt to Improve Doppler Lidar-Based Boundary-Layer Wind Estimates M. Moeini & D. Romanic
- Characterization of atmospheric coherent structures and their impact on a utility-scale wind turbine A. Abraham & J. Hong
- Beyond the First Generation of Wind Modeling for Resource Assessment and Siting: From Meteorology to Uncertainty Quantification M. Kelly
- Grand challenges in the design, manufacture, and operation of future wind turbine systems P. Veers et al.
- Wind farm power optimization using system identification Y. Zhu et al.
- Adaptive hybrid energy system for remote Canadian communities: Optimizing wind-diesel systems integrated with adiabatic compressed air energy storage S. Sarmast et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 Apr 2026
Short summary
This review paper evaluates the energy prediction bias in the wind resource assessment process, and the overprediction bias is decreasing over time. We examine the estimated and observed losses and uncertainties in energy production from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 standard. The considerable uncertainties call for further improvements in the prediction methodologies and more observations for validation.
This review paper evaluates the energy prediction bias in the wind resource assessment process,...
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