the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer
Larry K. Berg
Mithu Debnath
Georgios Deskos
Caroline Draxl
Virendra P. Ghate
Charlotte B. Hasager
Rao Kotamarthi
Jeffrey D. Mirocha
Paytsar Muradyan
William J. Pringle
David D. Turner
James M. Wilczak
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- Final revised paper (published on 28 Nov 2022)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Feb 2022)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on wes-2021-156', Stefan Emeis, 02 Mar 2022
This is a marine atmospheric boundary-layer manuscript with focus on wind energy.
It is a well-written review. Especially the Sections 6 ('leading-edge erosion') and 7 ('machine learning') are leading-edge contributions to these fields of science. It is interesting to learn that machine learning can substitute and even outperform similarity assumptions (M-O-theory). Something which is yet to be digested by a boundary-layer meteorologist who has worked in this field for about 40 years.
There are two issues which could be mentioned:
(1) the presentation is somewhat inclined towards America. This is no surprise since only one of the thirteen authors is from outside the US.
(2) it is surprising that wind farm parametrizations are not addressed. These parametrizations are intimately linked with boundary-layer features.
I leave it to the editors whether they ask the authors to insert a paragraph on the wind farm parametrization issue.
Otherwise, I think this review paper can be published as is.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-156-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', William Shaw, 28 Jun 2022
We appreciate the encouraging review provided by Dr. Emeis.
He first noted that the paper draws illustrations and perspective from conditions found around America. We acknowledge that this is the case as we stated at the outset of the paper. We felt that this approach was justified because, as the paper notes, there are several features involving western boundary currents and deep ocean upwelling that extend the challenges addressed by the substantial body of work already carried out in Europe.
Dr. Emeis second noted that wind farm parameterizations were not addressed. This was not an oversight. This paper is one of ten that are submitted or are nearing submission to Wind Energy Science that as a group will substantially expand the concepts in
Veers, P., Dykes K., Lantz, E., et al.: Grand challenges in the science of wind energy, Science, doi:10.1126/science.aau2027, 2019.
One of those papers, which is nearing submission, focuses specifically on the interactions of wind plants with the boundary layer and on wind farm parameterizations. Since it is not yet submitted, we cannot explicitly cite it. We will consult with the WES editor regarding whether to mention this in our manuscript.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-156-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', William Shaw, 28 Jun 2022
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CC1: 'Comment on wes-2021-156', Robert Banta, 05 Apr 2022
This paper does a nice job of summarizing many important unresolved issues related to offshore wind energy (WE), and how the ocean surface modifies the lower boundary of the atmosphere in the coastal zone to affect the wind resource there. Key aspects and attributes of the marine BL, ocean processes affecting sea surface state, roles of LES and mesoscale numerical models, need for improved parametrizations, and others are all nicely detailed.
Another aspect of the problem deserves greater attention: the challenges presented by meteorology itself are rather underrepresented in this overview. By this, I mean:
It is the upwind wind-speed profile across the turbine rotor layer of the atmosphere that is the quantity of greatest importance to WE, as it is the variable most highly correlated with wind power generated by a turbine or a wind farm.
The critical question becomes, then: what are the major controls on this inflow? Upstream profiles are produced from the movement and evolution of larger-scale (meso- to synoptic scale) flow systems that have major diurnal and annual cycles, are strongly driven by transient weather systems both synoptic and mesoscale, and are significantly modified by local topographic, sea-surface, and coastline effects. These larger-scale systems are responsible for the largest wind variations and the biggest obstacles to characterization, understanding, modeling, and predictability of rotor-layer inflow properties in the coastal zone (as elsewhere). Knowledge of the resulting flows and what drives them is important for forecasting, for assessing the reliability of models in predicting them, and for understanding the vertical structure, temporal behavior, and horizontal variability of the inflow profiles. According to my reading of this manuscript, these flow features are mentioned as being things one finds in the offshore environment, but mentioned only in passing.
Without a serious discussion of these phenomena, this skirts the next, deeper level of questions, which are relevant to planning of research efforts: what are the important forcing mechanisms behind these flow systems, what do we need to measure in order to document and understand the mechanisms, how well are these flows and mechanisms modeled in NWP forecast models, what do we need to do to improve the modeling of these phenomena, and so on ?
For example, sea/land breezes and many LLJs are forced by horizontal land-sea temperature gradients. These phenomena each bring particular characteristics to the rotor-layer inflow profiles, including evolution of the magnitude and vertical structure of the wind speed and direction. How these inflows develop depends on superimposed large-scale pressure gradients, the evolution of the daily heating-cooling cycles, and key time-dependent and spatially-varying processes. Comprehensive understanding of these flow features is needed and requires profile measurements offshore and inland, as well as other offshore-inland paired measurements including near-surface pressure, temperature, and representative surface-energy balances. In recent studies we have shown that a particular type of recurrent diurnal flow can influence the annual average of rotor-layer winds and can produce a distinctive diurnal HRRR-model error signature, which propagates through the averaging process to be discernable in the annually averaged error (Pichugina et al. 2019, JAMC; Banta et al. 2020, MWR). Such results can provide insight into the nature of model error sources (error diagnosis) and thus have potentially significant implications for NWP improvement, as well as basic understanding of the essential nature of the diurnal flows themselves. To understand these phenomena, to characterize their effects on rotor-layer inflow profiles, and to determine whether NWP models are getting them right (or, if not, why they are getting them wrong), these and other variables must be measured or calculated from measurements. Carefully designing field measurement campaigns to do so is a major challenge.
The set of processes and issues discussed in the present overview manuscript mostly constitute effects that modify the inflow profiles that have been presented to a wind farm by the larger-scale meteorology—which I would characterize as the primary forcing. Although this means that the overview issues would be classified as secondary or even tertiary effects on the profiles, they are not in any sense unimportant. But it is also important to establish quantitatively how each of these processes or effects modifies inflow profiles, i.e., what level of modification or uncertainty each of the processes introduces to basic wind-profile properties—is it at 2%, 10%, 50%? Clarity in this kind of prioritization and perspective is key for setting goals for future research.
Prioritization is even more complicated. We (Banta et al. 2013, BAMS) and many others have pointed out previously that the discipline of wind energy has many sub-disciplines or ‘sub-applications,’ such as resource assessment, forecasting, turbulence-wake effects and wind-farm layout, hardware design, refurbishment, etc.; and each of the issues in this overview manuscript can be critical to one or more of these subapplications. Challenges facing wind energy thus would include providing perspective on what level of uncertainty each of these issues imposes on each subapplication, and how important is that level of uncertainty to the subapplication? For example, hypothetically, updating the ocean-wave parameterization in a model may produce a 3% improvement in the wind speed through the rotor layer, which may be insignificant for operational forecasting but critical for resource assessment.
There is no doubt that each of the topics discussed in the current version of this overview has implications for one aspect or another of the wind-energy subdisciplines, and clearly any research that improves NWP model skill benefits wind energy. The role of day-to-day meteorology in controlling the shape, evolution, and magnitude of the wind profile through the turbine rotor layer of the lower atmosphere also deserves a prominent place in this discussion.
This paper seems aimed at a broad audience. To those readers having experience in meteorology, many of these points may be obvious. Other readers, who may not have a sophisticated appreciation of meteorology in all its complexity, should be made aware of the strong role of transient weather systems in determining the most fundamental aspects of the inflow wind profile, as well as the difficult but important paths to better understanding and modeling them.
Other comments:
Section 2, second para, line 137: I was going to recommend using h instead of Zi to represent ABL depth, since the subscript ‘i’ in Zi refers to the inversion at the top of the unstable convective boundary layer (CBL), and the ABL depth is important over the entire 24-h daily cycle for all the reasons mentioned. But—the techniques described in this paragraph really do only relate to finding the top of the unstable CBL. In the stable boundary layer (SBL), the top of the nocturnal inversion and the top of the SBL do not necessarily coincide, so ‘Zi’ is not appropriate to describe ABL depth under stable conditions. For times of the day when the ABL is stable, Doppler lidar techniques for finding h in the SBL using a specialized elevation-scanning strategy has been reported by Pichugina and Banta (2010, JAMC), and approaches to blending several different candidate lidar-determined BL-depth estimates to obtain 24-h determinations of h have been described by Tucker et al. (2009, JTech.), illustrated by overwater measurements (Galveston Bay). These and other approaches have been combined into a fuzzy logic calculations of h over the 24-h cycle using Doppler lidar data by Bonin et al. (2018, JTech.).
Line 566: “…refactoring of existing codebases in order to be ported to future exascale high-performance computing (HPC) systems.” – could this be rephrased, or explained, in plain English? I’m guessing other readers would also appreciate this…
A final issue is the spatial variability of winds in the offshore zone. In our BAMS overview (Banta et al. 2018, cited in the manuscript) and our DOC/NOAA report to DOE (2014, cited), we broke this down into cross shore, which includes factors affecting the increase of wind speed with distance from shore, and along shore, which certainly affects resource assessment and also is a forecasting factor. The ability of NWP models to capture this variability is an important issue. I would suggest at least a brief discussion of this topic (spatial variability of offshore winds) as related to the various elements of offshore wind energy.
Disclaimer: this community comment is written by an individual and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of their employer.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-156-CC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on CC1', William Shaw, 28 Jun 2022
We are grateful for the substantial and constructive comments that Dr. Banta has provided. We also acknowledge his broad criticisms of the paper. These may be generally summarized as follows:
- Synoptic-scale and mesoscale systems are the primary drivers for inflow into wind plants, and the inflow is then modulated by the processes on which we have focused in out manuscript. He has suggested that the paper would benefit from an expanded discussion of these larger-scale processes.
- He has also suggested that the paper needs to address the primary forcing mechanisms of the synoptic-scale and mesoscale systems and consequently to provide guidance on field measurement strategies that will illuminate NWP errors and their causes so that the models can be improved.
- Dr. Banta has also suggested that the paper prioritize focus on various atmospheric processes based on their importance to wind energy and their levels of uncertainty.
With respect to Point 1 above, the scope of such a discussion can be vast, and the current manuscript is already near the maximum length of what Wind Energy Science can support as one paper in a set of 10 that expand on Veers et al. (2019). We had extensive discussions regarding inclusion of issues associated with the representation of synoptic and mesoscale phenomena in numerical weather prediction models, and we believe that the paper represents a fair balance. We do discuss sea breezes and low-level jets in the paper, but for these mesoscale flows we feel that it is most important to emphasize the lack of validating observations in offshore wind energy areas, especially since most of what is known about sea breezes, low-level jets, and other phenomena of daily meteorology comes from measurements made over land. This is also reflected in the references that Dr. Banta provided. We note the BAMS 2018 article that we originally cited in a narrower context has some broad discussion of the phenomena that Dr. Banta suggested that we discuss. Perhaps the most efficient at least partial solution is to direct readers to that discussion early in the paper 2018 BAMS paper.
We will therefore insert the following at line 82:
“(Strobach et al.2018). From a terrestrial perspective, Banta et al. (2013, 2018) have provided descriptions of these kinds of circulations as they relate to wind energy together with suggested observational strategies for better observing them. Offshore…”
We will also add the following to the end of Section 1 of the manuscript beginning in line 125:
“While synoptic-scale weather systems are important for driving wind plant inflows in the boundary layer and remain an active area of forecasting challenge and research, the structure and forcing mechanisms of these systems are beyond the scope of this paper.”
Points 2 and 3 are related. The general forcing mechanisms of diurnal meteorological flows are well known, but the ability of models to capture details of what modulates that forcing, especially offshore, is still poorly validated. As a result, prioritization will likely be an iterative process as more observations become available to validate more model scales under a broader range of conditions. In the interim, some focus is provided by workshops such as the one held in 2019 with input both from industry and researchers.
Regarding Dr. Banta’s comments on h vs Zi as the appropriate variable indicating ABL depth, the authorship team discussed this at some length as we were drafting the manuscript. We decided that Zi was also appropriate because turbulent mixing, even in a stably stratified ABL, will always create a nearer-neutral profile of potential temperature than will be present immediately above the height where the mixing stops. Also, since the temperature profile is often not truly inverted (increasing with height) above a convective ABL (even though potential temperature increases with height), we felt that this choice is acceptable. It was also convenient, since the figures we reproduced for this paper were labeled with Zi as the height of the mixing layer.
Finally, on line 566, we will change “is the refactoring of existing codebases in order to be ported to…” to “is the optimization of the design and the structure of existing numerical model codebases in order to be adapted to…”
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-156-AC2
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AC2: 'Reply on CC1', William Shaw, 28 Jun 2022
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RC2: 'Comment on wes-2021-156', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Apr 2022
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://wes.copernicus.org/preprints/wes-2021-156/wes-2021-156-RC2-supplement.pdf
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AC3: 'Reply on RC2', William Shaw, 28 Jun 2022
We thank the second reviewer for the constructive review and specific comments. We respond to the specific comments as follows (review comments in quotation marks; our responses immediately follow):
- “The authors described relations between dT (temperature - SST) and vertical wind speed profiles in Section 3. The wind profile can be definitely affected by SST. Meanwhile, strong winds (e.g., with tropical cyclones) can also decrease SST because of vertical convections in the sea surface. It could be worth adding a description mutuality and complexity of the relation.”
The perspective the reviewer is suggesting is implicit in the coupled-model discussion in Section 5.2.2. To make it more clear, we will add the sentence “…Wu et al. 2020). Such coupled models explicitly account for SST evolution from ocean mixing driven by marine ABL winds. They…” - “On page 2, line 47, I would prefer to move the annotation 1 to the reference list.”
We added this as a footnote since it is a web address rather than citable, refereed literature. If the WES editors prefer, we will be happy to make the suggested change in the final version of the paper. - “On page 6, line 159, the quote O’Neil 2012 is missing in the reference list.”
We thank the reviewer for catching this. We will add the following citation to the bibliography and correct the spelling of the author’s name:
O’Neill, L., Chelton, D. B., and Esbensen, S. K.: Covariability of surface wind and stress responses to sea surface temperature fronts, J. Clim. 25(17), 5916–5942, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00230.1, 2012
- “On page 7, Figure 2 would be more reader friendly if heading symbols (e.g., a), b),…) were used for figures, respectively.”
We elected not to give the panels individual letters because all elements are common to both panels and there is no discussion in the manuscript that addresses either panel individually. We felt that the addition of letters might therefore clutter the figure without assisting the reader. - “On pages 11 and 14, Figures 3 and 5 would be better if heading symbols were used as same as below.”
For Figure 3, we will change “zeta” in line 277 to be the symbol “ς” to match the figure. We did not try to adjust the figure, since it is reproduced with permission from the Patton et al. article.
For Figure 5, it is not clear what symbols the reviewer is referring to, since the only symbol in the figure is “z” for height, and the text does not include additional symbols. - “On page 17, lines 431 and 432, brackets should be changed from italic to normal fonts.”
This change will be made. - “On page 32, line 913, information of the article should be updated. It was published already.
We thank the reviewer for catching this. The citation will be changed to
Borvarán, D., Peña, A., and Gandoin, R.: Characterization of offshore vertical wind shear conditions in Southern New England, Wind Energy, 24(5), 465–480, doi:10.1002/we.2583, 2021.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-156-AC3 - “The authors described relations between dT (temperature - SST) and vertical wind speed profiles in Section 3. The wind profile can be definitely affected by SST. Meanwhile, strong winds (e.g., with tropical cyclones) can also decrease SST because of vertical convections in the sea surface. It could be worth adding a description mutuality and complexity of the relation.”
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AC3: 'Reply on RC2', William Shaw, 28 Jun 2022
Peer review completion
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