Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, 2020
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, 2020

Research article 31 Oct 2020

Research article | 31 Oct 2020

Operational-based annual energy production uncertainty: are its components actually uncorrelated?

Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis

Data sets

Form EIA-923 US Energy Information Administration

Open OA, FKA: Wind Plant Performance Project (WP3) Benchmarking J. Perr-Sauer, M. Fields, A. Craig, M. Optis, T. Kemper, S. Sheng, J. Meissner, and C. Phillips

Short summary
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.