Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020

Research article 31 Oct 2020

Research article | 31 Oct 2020

Operational-based annual energy production uncertainty: are its components actually uncorrelated?

Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Nicola Bodini on behalf of the Authors (13 Apr 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (27 Apr 2020) by Carlo L. Bottasso
RR by Curran Crawford (02 May 2020)
RR by Mark Kelly (14 May 2020)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (18 May 2020) by Carlo L. Bottasso
AR by Nicola Bodini on behalf of the Authors (04 Jun 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Jul 2020) by Carlo L. Bottasso
RR by Mark Kelly (27 Jul 2020)
RR by Curran Crawford (05 Aug 2020)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (14 Aug 2020) by Carlo L. Bottasso
AR by Nicola Bodini on behalf of the Authors (14 Aug 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (31 Aug 2020) by Carlo L. Bottasso
ED: Publish as is (12 Sep 2020) by Jakob Mann(Chief Editor)

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Nicola Bodini on behalf of the Authors (22 Oct 2020)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (28 Oct 2020) by Carlo L. Bottasso
Download
Short summary
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.