Articles | Volume 5, issue 4
Research article
31 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 31 Oct 2020

Operational-based annual energy production uncertainty: are its components actually uncorrelated?

Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis

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Cited articles

ANSI C12.1-2014: Electric Meters – Code For Electricity Metering, Standard, National Electrical Manufacturers Association, Virginia, available at: (last access: 1 October 2020), 2014. a
Brower, M.: Wind resource assessment: a practical guide to developing a wind project, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey,, 2012. a, b
Cameron, J.: Post-construction Yield Analysis, European Wind Energy Association Technical Workshop, available at: Workshop Lyon - 2-3 Jessica Cameron Natural Power.pdf (last access: Last access: 1 October 2020), 2012. a
Clifton, A., Smith, A., and Field, M.: Wind Plant Preconstruction Energy Estimates: Current Practice and Opportunities, Tech. rep., available at: (last access: 1 October 2020), 2016. a
Short summary
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.