Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-779-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-779-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modular deep learning approach for wind farm power forecasting and wake loss prediction
Artificial Intelligence Lab Brussels, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 9, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Faculty of Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Timothy Verstraeten
Artificial Intelligence Lab Brussels, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 9, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Faculty of Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Pieter-Jan Daems
Faculty of Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Ann Nowé
Artificial Intelligence Lab Brussels, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 9, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Jan Helsen
Faculty of Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
Flanders Make@VUB, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, Belgium
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Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-168, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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Wind energy use has been rapidly expanding worldwide in recent years. Driven by global decarbonization goals and energy security concerns, this growth is expected to continue. To achieve these targets, production costs must decrease, with operation and maintenance being major contributors. This paper reviews current and emerging technologies for monitoring wind turbine drivetrains and highlights key academic and industrial challenges that may hinder progress.
Faras Jamil, Cédric Peeters, Timothy Verstraeten, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1963–1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1963-2025, 2025
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A hybrid fault detection method is proposed, which combines physical domain knowledge with machine learning models to automatically detect mechanical faults in wind turbine drivetrain components. It offers detailed insights for experts while giving operators a high-level overview of the machine's health to assist in planning effective maintenance strategies. It was validated on multiple years of wind farm data and the potential faults were accurately predicted, which was confirmed by experts.
Simon Daenens, Timothy Verstraeten, Pieter-Jan Daems, Ann Nowé, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1137–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1137-2025, 2025
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This study presents a novel model for predicting wind turbine power output at a high temporal resolution in wind farms using a hybrid graph neural network (GNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture. By modeling the wind farm as a graph, the model captures both spatial and temporal dynamics, outperforming traditional power curve methods. Integrated with a normal behavior model (NBM) framework, the model effectively identifies and analyzes power loss events.
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Revised manuscript accepted for WES
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We introduce a new method to refine failure prediction for wind turbines, leading to better and more efficient alarming. We do this by filtering detected anomalies based on the anomalies from the whole fleet. We compare submethods and find one that removes up to 65 % of detected anomalies while leaving the failure-predicting ones. We also detail how we trained the model that generated these anomalies and discuss the construction of the scalable pipeline that was used to deploy such models.
Konstantinos Vratsinis, Rebeca Marini, Pieter-Jan Daems, Lukas Pauscher, Jeroen van Beeck, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-32, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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Using data collected over 13 months at an offshore wind farm, our study shows that a wind turbine’s position within the farm influences its energy output at a given wind speed. Front-row turbines respond differently to similar wind speeds and turbulence than those further back. This finding suggests that current methods for characterizing inflow conditions may not fully capture actual wind behavior, underscoring the need for improved performance analysis techniques.
Jakob Gebel, Ashkan Rezaei, Adithya Vemuri, Veronica Liverud Krathe, Pieter-Jan Daems, Jens Jo Matthys, Jonathan Sterckx, Konstantinos Vratsinis, Kayacan Kestel, Amir R. Nejad, and Jan Helsen
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Preprint under review for WES
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A simulation model of a deployed offshore wind turbine was developed using real-world measurement data. The method shows how to obtain, update and validate a simulation model and allows to improve the efficiency and longevity of offshore wind turbines and support operation and maintenance decisions. Simulations were conducted to analyze the effects of turbulence and wind patterns on turbine lifespan, providing insights to improve maintenance planning and reduce operational costs.
Rebeca Marini, Konstantinos Vratsinis, Kayacan Kestel, Jonathan Sterckx, Jens Matthys, Pieter-Jan Daems, Timothy Verstraeten, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-9, 2025
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This work evaluated the wind profile in a Belgian offshore zone. The estimated wind profile was made using measurements that allow for reconstruction at heights along the rotor area. The IEC standard defines these profiles as a 1/7th power law, which is proven not to occur 100 % of the time. It is also possible to infer that there will be differences when using different wind profiles for load assessment, as more realistic profiles can lead to a better assessment of the wind turbine's lifetime.
Diederik van Binsbergen, Pieter-Jan Daems, Timothy Verstraeten, Amir R. Nejad, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1507–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1507-2024, 2024
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Wind farm yield assessment often relies on analytical wake models. Calibrating these models can be challenging due to the stochastic nature of wind. We developed a calibration framework that performs a multi-phase optimization on the tuning parameters using time series SCADA data. This yields a parameter distribution that more accurately reflects reality than a single value. Results revealed notable variation in resultant parameter values, influenced by nearby wind farms and coastal effects.
Xavier Chesterman, Timothy Verstraeten, Pieter-Jan Daems, Ann Nowé, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 893–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-893-2023, 2023
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This paper reviews and implements several techniques that can be used for condition monitoring and failure prediction for wind turbines using SCADA data. The focus lies on techniques that respond to requirements of the industry, e.g., robustness, transparency, computational efficiency, and maintainability. The end result of this research is a pipeline that can accurately detect three types of failures, i.e., generator bearing failures, generator fan failures, and generator stator failures.
Adithya Vemuri, Sophia Buckingham, Wim Munters, Jan Helsen, and Jeroen van Beeck
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1869–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1869-2022, 2022
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The sensitivity of the WRF mesoscale modeling framework in accurately representing and predicting wind-farm-level environmental variables for three extreme weather events over the Belgian North Sea is investigated in this study. The overall results indicate highly sensitive simulation results to the type and combination of physics parameterizations and the type of the weather phenomena, with indications that scale-aware physics parameterizations better reproduce wind-related variables.
Amir R. Nejad, Jonathan Keller, Yi Guo, Shawn Sheng, Henk Polinder, Simon Watson, Jianning Dong, Zian Qin, Amir Ebrahimi, Ralf Schelenz, Francisco Gutiérrez Guzmán, Daniel Cornel, Reza Golafshan, Georg Jacobs, Bart Blockmans, Jelle Bosmans, Bert Pluymers, James Carroll, Sofia Koukoura, Edward Hart, Alasdair McDonald, Anand Natarajan, Jone Torsvik, Farid K. Moghadam, Pieter-Jan Daems, Timothy Verstraeten, Cédric Peeters, and Jan Helsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 387–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-387-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-387-2022, 2022
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This paper presents the state-of-the-art technologies and development trends of wind turbine drivetrains – the energy conversion systems transferring the kinetic energy of the wind to electrical energy – in different stages of their life cycle: design, manufacturing, installation, operation, lifetime extension, decommissioning and recycling. The main aim of this article is to review the drivetrain technology development as well as to identify future challenges and research gaps.
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Short summary
Wind farms are crucial for a sustainable energy future. However, their power can fluctuate significantly due to changing weather conditions, which complexly affect their power generation. This paper presents a novel machine-learning-based method to enhance wind farm power predictions, enabling improved power scheduling, trading and grid balancing. This makes wind power more valuable and easier to integrate into the energy system.
Wind farms are crucial for a sustainable energy future. However, their power can fluctuate...
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