Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver W Pkwy, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Simon Castagneri
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver W Pkwy, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Mike Optis
Veer Renewables Inc., Courtenay, British Columbia, V9N 9B4, Canada
Related authors
Aliza Abraham, Matteo Puccioni, Arianna Jordan, Emina Maric, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Stefano Letizia, Petra M. Klein, Elizabeth Smith, Sonia Wharton, Jonathan Gero, Jamey D. Jacob, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Mikhail Pekour, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-148, 2024
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first to use real-world atmospheric measurements to show that large wind plants can increase the height of the planetary boundary layer, the part of the atmosphere near the surface where life takes place. The planetary boundary layer height governs processes like pollutant transport and cloud formation, and is a key parameter for modeling the atmosphere. The results of this study provide important insights into interactions between wind plants and their local environment.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Jiali Wang, Caroline Draxl, Nicola Bodini, Caleb Phillips, Dmitry Duplyakin, Heidi Tinnesand, Raj K. Rai, Julia E. Flaherty, Larry K. Berg, Chunyong Jung, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Three recent wind resource datasets are assessed for their skills in representing annual average wind speeds and seasonal, diurnal, and inter-annual trends in the wind resource to support customers interested in small and midsize wind energy.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, Nicola Bodini, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-53, 2024
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind farms along the US east coast can have limited effects on local weather. Studying this, we used a weather model to compare conditions with and without wind farms near Massachusetts and Rhode Island. We analyzed changes in wind, temperature, and turbulence. Results show reduced wind speeds near and downwind of wind farms, especially during stability and high winds. Turbulence increases near wind farms, affecting boundary-layer height and wake size.
Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Stephanie Redfern, David Rosencrans, Alex Rybchuk, Julie K. Lundquist, Vincent Pronk, Simon Castagneri, Avi Purkayastha, Caroline Draxl, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Ethan Young, Billy Roberts, Evan Rosenlieb, and Walter Musial
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1965–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), an updated resource for offshore wind information in the US. It replaces the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, offering improved accuracy through advanced weather prediction models. The data underwent regional tuning and validation and can be accessed at no cost.
Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob Newsom, Colleen Kaul, Stefano Letizia, Mikhail Pekour, Nicholas Hamilton, Duli Chand, Donna M. Flynn, Nicola Bodini, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
The growth of wind farms in the central United States in the last decade has been staggering. This study looked at how wind farms affect the recovery of wind wakes – the disturbed air behind wind turbines. In places like the US Great Plains, phenomena such as low-level jets can form, changing how wind farms work. We studied how wind wakes recover under different weather conditions using real-world data, which is important for making wind energy more efficient and reliable.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Brian J. Gaudet, Nicola Bodini, Rob K. Newsom, and Mikhail Pekour
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 741–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas and provided valuable year-long analyses of offshore low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. In addition to the LLJ climatology, this work provides validation of LLJ representation in atmospheric models that are essential for assessing the potential energy yield of offshore wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, Alex Rybchuk, Nicola Bodini, and Michael Rossol
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The US offshore wind industry is developing rapidly. Using yearlong simulations of wind plants in the US mid-Atlantic, we assess the impacts of wind turbine wakes. While wakes are the strongest and longest during summertime stably stratified conditions, when New England grid demand peaks, they are predictable and thus manageable. Over a year, wakes reduce power output by over 35 %. Wakes in a wind plant contribute the most to that reduction, while wakes between wind plants play a secondary role.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-2, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
The U.S. offshore wind industry is growing rapidly. Expansion into cold climates will subject turbines and personnel to hazardous freezing. We analyze the 20-year freezing risk for US East Coast wind areas based on numerical weather prediction simulations and further assess impacts from wind farm wakes over one winter season. Sea-spray icing at 10 m can occur up to 66 hours per month. However, turbine–atmosphere interactions reduce icing hours within wind plant areas.
Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Julie K. Lundquist, David Rosencrans, Nicola Bodini, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2085–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction models are used to predict how wind turbines will interact with the atmosphere. Here, we characterize the uncertainty associated with the choice of turbulence parameterization on modeled wakes. We find that simulated wind speed deficits in turbine wakes can be significantly sensitive to the choice of turbulence parameterization. As such, predictions of future generated power are also sensitive to turbulence parameterization choice.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Nicola Bodini, Weiming Hu, Mike Optis, Guido Cervone, and Stefano Alessandrini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1363–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We develop two machine-learning-based approaches to temporally extrapolate uncertainty in hub-height wind speed modeled by a numerical weather prediction model. We test our approaches in the California Outer Continental Shelf, where a significant offshore wind energy development is currently being planned, and we find that both provide accurate results.
Mithu Debnath, Paula Doubrawa, Mike Optis, Patrick Hawbecker, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As the offshore wind industry emerges on the US East Coast, a comprehensive understanding of the wind resource – particularly extreme events – is vital to the industry's success. We leverage a year of data of two floating lidars to quantify and characterize the frequent occurrence of high-wind-shear and low-level-jet events, both of which will have a considerable impact on turbine operation. We find that almost 100 independent long events occur throughout the year.
Hannah Livingston, Nicola Bodini, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we assess whether hub-height turbulence can easily be quantified from either other hub-height variables or ground-level measurements in complex terrain. We find a large variability across the three considered locations when trying to model hub-height turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy. Our results highlight the nonlinear and complex nature of atmospheric turbulence, so that more powerful techniques should instead be recommended to model hub-height turbulence.
Mike Optis, Nicola Bodini, Mithu Debnath, and Paula Doubrawa
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 935–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are huge, with rotor blades soon to extend up to nearly 300 m. Accurate modeling of winds across these heights is crucial for accurate estimates of energy production. However, we lack sufficient observations at these heights but have plenty of near-surface observations. Here we show that a basic machine-learning model can provide very accurate estimates of winds in this area, and much better than conventional techniques.
Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, and Mike Optis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4271–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
While turbulence dissipation rate (ε) is an essential parameter for the prediction of wind speed, its current representation in weather prediction models is inaccurate, especially in complex terrain. In this study, we leverage the potential of machine-learning techniques to provide a more accurate representation of turbulence dissipation rate. Our results show a 30 % reduction in the average error compared to the current model representation of ε and a total elimination of its average bias.
Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the wind resource at hub height is necessary for an efficient and bankable wind farm project. Conventional techniques for wind speed vertical extrapolation include a power law and a logarithmic law. Here, we propose a round-robin validation to assess the benefits that a machine-learning-based approach can provide in vertically extrapolating wind speed at a location different from the training site – the most practically useful application for the wind energy industry.
Aliza Abraham, Matteo Puccioni, Arianna Jordan, Emina Maric, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Stefano Letizia, Petra M. Klein, Elizabeth Smith, Sonia Wharton, Jonathan Gero, Jamey D. Jacob, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Mikhail Pekour, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-148, 2024
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first to use real-world atmospheric measurements to show that large wind plants can increase the height of the planetary boundary layer, the part of the atmosphere near the surface where life takes place. The planetary boundary layer height governs processes like pollutant transport and cloud formation, and is a key parameter for modeling the atmosphere. The results of this study provide important insights into interactions between wind plants and their local environment.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Jiali Wang, Caroline Draxl, Nicola Bodini, Caleb Phillips, Dmitry Duplyakin, Heidi Tinnesand, Raj K. Rai, Julia E. Flaherty, Larry K. Berg, Chunyong Jung, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Three recent wind resource datasets are assessed for their skills in representing annual average wind speeds and seasonal, diurnal, and inter-annual trends in the wind resource to support customers interested in small and midsize wind energy.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, Nicola Bodini, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-53, 2024
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind farms along the US east coast can have limited effects on local weather. Studying this, we used a weather model to compare conditions with and without wind farms near Massachusetts and Rhode Island. We analyzed changes in wind, temperature, and turbulence. Results show reduced wind speeds near and downwind of wind farms, especially during stability and high winds. Turbulence increases near wind farms, affecting boundary-layer height and wake size.
Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Stephanie Redfern, David Rosencrans, Alex Rybchuk, Julie K. Lundquist, Vincent Pronk, Simon Castagneri, Avi Purkayastha, Caroline Draxl, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Ethan Young, Billy Roberts, Evan Rosenlieb, and Walter Musial
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1965–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), an updated resource for offshore wind information in the US. It replaces the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, offering improved accuracy through advanced weather prediction models. The data underwent regional tuning and validation and can be accessed at no cost.
Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob Newsom, Colleen Kaul, Stefano Letizia, Mikhail Pekour, Nicholas Hamilton, Duli Chand, Donna M. Flynn, Nicola Bodini, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
The growth of wind farms in the central United States in the last decade has been staggering. This study looked at how wind farms affect the recovery of wind wakes – the disturbed air behind wind turbines. In places like the US Great Plains, phenomena such as low-level jets can form, changing how wind farms work. We studied how wind wakes recover under different weather conditions using real-world data, which is important for making wind energy more efficient and reliable.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Brian J. Gaudet, Nicola Bodini, Rob K. Newsom, and Mikhail Pekour
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 741–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas and provided valuable year-long analyses of offshore low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. In addition to the LLJ climatology, this work provides validation of LLJ representation in atmospheric models that are essential for assessing the potential energy yield of offshore wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, Alex Rybchuk, Nicola Bodini, and Michael Rossol
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The US offshore wind industry is developing rapidly. Using yearlong simulations of wind plants in the US mid-Atlantic, we assess the impacts of wind turbine wakes. While wakes are the strongest and longest during summertime stably stratified conditions, when New England grid demand peaks, they are predictable and thus manageable. Over a year, wakes reduce power output by over 35 %. Wakes in a wind plant contribute the most to that reduction, while wakes between wind plants play a secondary role.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-2, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
The U.S. offshore wind industry is growing rapidly. Expansion into cold climates will subject turbines and personnel to hazardous freezing. We analyze the 20-year freezing risk for US East Coast wind areas based on numerical weather prediction simulations and further assess impacts from wind farm wakes over one winter season. Sea-spray icing at 10 m can occur up to 66 hours per month. However, turbine–atmosphere interactions reduce icing hours within wind plant areas.
Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Julie K. Lundquist, David Rosencrans, Nicola Bodini, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2085–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction models are used to predict how wind turbines will interact with the atmosphere. Here, we characterize the uncertainty associated with the choice of turbulence parameterization on modeled wakes. We find that simulated wind speed deficits in turbine wakes can be significantly sensitive to the choice of turbulence parameterization. As such, predictions of future generated power are also sensitive to turbulence parameterization choice.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Nicola Bodini, Weiming Hu, Mike Optis, Guido Cervone, and Stefano Alessandrini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1363–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We develop two machine-learning-based approaches to temporally extrapolate uncertainty in hub-height wind speed modeled by a numerical weather prediction model. We test our approaches in the California Outer Continental Shelf, where a significant offshore wind energy development is currently being planned, and we find that both provide accurate results.
Mithu Debnath, Paula Doubrawa, Mike Optis, Patrick Hawbecker, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As the offshore wind industry emerges on the US East Coast, a comprehensive understanding of the wind resource – particularly extreme events – is vital to the industry's success. We leverage a year of data of two floating lidars to quantify and characterize the frequent occurrence of high-wind-shear and low-level-jet events, both of which will have a considerable impact on turbine operation. We find that almost 100 independent long events occur throughout the year.
Hannah Livingston, Nicola Bodini, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we assess whether hub-height turbulence can easily be quantified from either other hub-height variables or ground-level measurements in complex terrain. We find a large variability across the three considered locations when trying to model hub-height turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy. Our results highlight the nonlinear and complex nature of atmospheric turbulence, so that more powerful techniques should instead be recommended to model hub-height turbulence.
Mike Optis, Nicola Bodini, Mithu Debnath, and Paula Doubrawa
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 935–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are huge, with rotor blades soon to extend up to nearly 300 m. Accurate modeling of winds across these heights is crucial for accurate estimates of energy production. However, we lack sufficient observations at these heights but have plenty of near-surface observations. Here we show that a basic machine-learning model can provide very accurate estimates of winds in this area, and much better than conventional techniques.
Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, and Mike Optis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4271–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
While turbulence dissipation rate (ε) is an essential parameter for the prediction of wind speed, its current representation in weather prediction models is inaccurate, especially in complex terrain. In this study, we leverage the potential of machine-learning techniques to provide a more accurate representation of turbulence dissipation rate. Our results show a 30 % reduction in the average error compared to the current model representation of ε and a total elimination of its average bias.
Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the wind resource at hub height is necessary for an efficient and bankable wind farm project. Conventional techniques for wind speed vertical extrapolation include a power law and a logarithmic law. Here, we propose a round-robin validation to assess the benefits that a machine-learning-based approach can provide in vertically extrapolating wind speed at a location different from the training site – the most practically useful application for the wind energy industry.
Cited articles
Alessandrini, S., Sperati, S., and Pinson, P.:
A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data, Appl. Energ., 107, 271–280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.02.041, 2013. a
AWS Truepower: AWS Truepower Loss and Uncertainty Methods, Albany, NY, https://www.awstruepower.com/assets/AWS-Truepower-Loss-and-Uncertainty-Memorandum-5-Jun-2014.pdf (last access: 1 October 2022), 2014. a
Bodini, N. and Optis, M.: How accurate is a machine learning-based wind speed extrapolation under a round-robin approach?, J. Phys.: Conf. Ser., 1618, 062037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1618/6/062037, 2020a. a
Bodini, N. and Optis, M.: The importance of round-robin validation when assessing machine-learning-based vertical extrapolation of wind speeds, Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020, 2020b. a
Bodini, N. and Optis, M.: WRF nameless for NREL's Mid-Atlantic WRF simulations, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7814365, 2023. a
Bodini, N., Lundquist, J. K., and Kirincich, A.:
US East Coast lidar measurements show offshore wind turbines will encounter very low atmospheric turbulence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 5582–5591, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082636, 2019. a
Bodini, N., Optis, M., Rossol, M., Rybchuk, A., and Redfern, S.: US Offshore Wind Resource data for 2000–2020, OEDI [data set], https://doi.org/10.25984/1821404, 2020. a, b
Bodini, N., Hu, W., Optis, M., Cervone, G., and Alessandrini, S.: Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble, Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1363–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, 2021. a
Brower, M.:
Wind Resource Assessment: A Practical Guide to Developing a Wind Project, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118249864, 2012. a
Buizza, R., Leutbecher, M., and Isaksen, L.:
Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 2051–2066, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.346, 2008. a
Carvalho, D., Rocha, A., Gómez-Gesteira, M., and Santos, C. S.:
Sensitivity of the WRF model wind simulation and wind energy production estimates to planetary boundary layer parameterizations for onshore and offshore areas in the Iberian Peninsula, Appl. Energ., 135, 234–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.082, 2014a. a
Carvalho, D., Rocha, A., Gómez-Gesteira, M., and Silva Santos, C.:
WRF wind simulation and wind energy production estimates forced by different reanalyses: Comparison with observed data for Portugal, Appl. Energ., 117, 116–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.12.001, 2014b. a
Donlon, C. J., Martin, M., Stark, J., Roberts-Jones, J., Fiedler, E., and Wimmer, W.:
The operational sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis (OSTIA) system, Remote Sens. Environ., 116, 140–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.017, 2012. a, b
Dörenkämper, M., Olsen, B. T., Witha, B., Hahmann, A. N., Davis, N. N., Barcons, J., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Sastre-Marugán, M., Sīle, T., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., and Mann, J.:
The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020. a
Draxl, C., Clifton, A., Hodge, B.-M., and McCaa, J.:
The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, Appl. Energ., 151, 355–366, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.121, 2015. a, b
Ek, M., Mitchell, K., Lin, Y., Rogers, E., Grunmann, P., Koren, V., Gayno, G., and Tarpley, J.: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 8851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003296, 2003. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Global Wind Energy Council:
GWEC Global Wind Report 2022, Global Wind Energy Council: Bonn, Germany, 2023. a
Grumbine, R.: NCEP Products Inventory Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Models, NOAA, https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/sst/ (last access: 26 April 2023), 2020. a
Hahmann, A. N., Vincent, C. L., Peña, A., Lange, J., and Hasager, C. B.:
Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3422–3439, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4217, 2015. a, b, c
Hahmann, A. N., Sīle, T., Witha, B., Davis, N. N., Dörenkämper, M., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Olsen, B. T., and Söderberg, S.: The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5053–5078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, 2020. a
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J., and Franklin, J.:
The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference and prediction, Math. Intell., 27, 83–85, 2005. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hoerl, A. E. and Kennard, R. W.:
Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems, Technometrics, 12, 55–67, 1970. a
Holstag, E.: Improved Bankability, The Ecofys position on Lidar Use, Ecofys report, https://www.nrgsystems.com/assets/resources/Ecofys-2013-position-paper-on-lidar-use-Whitepapers.pdf (last access: 26 April 2023), 2013. a
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J.:
A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2318–2341, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1, 2006. a
JCGM 100:2008: Evaluation of measurement data – Supplement 1 to the “Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement”, Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology, https://www.bipm.org/documents/20126/2071204/JCGM_101_2008_E.pdf (last access: 26 April 2023), 2008a. a
Johnson, C., White, E., and Jones, S.:
Summary of Actual vs. Predicted Wind Farm Performance: Recap of WINDPOWER 2008, in: AWEA Wind Resource and Project Energy Assessment Workshop, Portland, OR, USA, http://www.enecafe.com/interdomain/idlidar/paper/2008/AWEA%20workshop%202008%20Johnson_Clint.pdf (last access: 26 April 2023), 2008. a
Justice, C., Townshend, J., Vermote, E., Masuoka, E., Wolfe, R., Saleous, N., Roy, D., and Morisette, J.:
An overview of MODIS Land data processing and product status, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00084-6, 2002. a
Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain–Fritsch scheme, in: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Springer, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-13-3_16, 1993. a
MARACOOS: Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, ASOW-4, Winds Profile, MARACOOS [data set], https://erddap.maracoos.org/erddap/tabledap/AtlanticShores_ASOW-4_wind.html
(last access: 26 April 2023), 2023a. a
MARACOOS: Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, ASOW-6, Winds Profile, MARACOOS [data set],
https://erddap.maracoos.org/erddap/tabledap/AtlanticShores_ASOW-6_wind.html
(last access: 26 April 2023), 2023b. a
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.:
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 16663–16682, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997. a
Monin, A. S. and Obukhov, A. M.: Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere, Contrib. Geophys. Inst. Acad. Sci. USSR, 24, 163–187, 1954. a
Musial, W., Heimiller, D., Beiter, P., Scott, G., and Draxl, C.:
Offshore wind energy resource assessment for the United States, Tech. rep., National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (US), https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66599.pdf (last access: 26 April 2023), 2016. a
Musial, W., Spitsen, P., Duffy, P., Beiter, P., Marquis, M., Hammond, R., and Shields, M.:
Offshore Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition, Tech. rep., National Renewable Energy Lab.(NREL), Golden, CO (US), 2022. a
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.:
Development of an improved turbulence closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn.. Ser. II, 87, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.87.895, 2009. a, b
National Data Buoy Center: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov, last access: 26 April 2023. a
Niu, G.-Y., Yang, Z.-L., Mitchell, K. E., Chen, F., Ek, M. B., Barlage, M., Kumar, A., Manning, K., Niyogi, D., Rosero, E., Tewari, M., and Xia, Y.: The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D12109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015139, 2011. a
Olsen, B. T., Hahmann, A. N., Sempreviva, A. M., Badger, J., and Jørgensen, H. E.:
An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications, Wind Energ. Sci., 2, 211–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-211-2017, 2017. a, b
Optis, M., Bodini, N., Debnath, M., and Doubrawa, P.:
New methods to improve the vertical extrapolation of near-surface offshore wind speeds, Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 935–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, 2021. a
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel, O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J., Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M.,Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.: Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12, 2825–2830, 2011. a
Peterson, E. W. and Hennessey Jr, J. P.:
On the use of power laws for estimates of wind power potential, J. Appl. Meteorol., 17, 390–394, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<0390:OTUOPL>2.0.CO;2, 1978. a
Pronk, V., Bodini, N., Optis, M., Lundquist, J. K., Moriarty, P., Draxl, C., Purkayastha, A., and Young, E.:
Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?, Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Ruiz, J. J., Saulo, C., and Nogués-Paegle, J.:
WRF Model Sensitivity to Choice of Parameterization over South America: Validation against Surface Variables, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3342–3355, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3358.1, 2010. a
Schoenberg Ferrier, B.:
A double-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme. Part I: Description, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 249–280, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0249:ADMMPF>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Siuta, D., West, G., and Stull, R.:
WRF Hub-Height Wind Forecast Sensitivity to PBL Scheme, Grid Length, and Initial Condition Choice in Complex Terrain, Weather Forecast., 32, 493–509, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0120.1, 2017. a
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., Barker, D. M., and Huang, X.-Y.: A description of the advanced research WRF model version 4, National Center for Atmospheric Research: Boulder, CO, USA, 145, 550, 2019. a
Ulazia, A., Saenz, J., and Ibarra-Berastegui, G.:
Sensitivity to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation in a mesoscale model for estimating offshore wind energy potential. A case study of the Iberian northern coastline, Appl. Energ., 180, 617–627, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.033, 2016. a
US White House Briefing Room: Fact sheet: Biden administration jumpstarts offshore wind energy projects to create jobs, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/29/fact-sheet-biden-administration-jumpstarts-offshore-wind
(last access: 26 April 2023), 2021. a
Vassallo, D., Krishnamurthy, R., and Fernando, H. J. S.:
Decreasing wind speed extrapolation error via domain-specific feature extraction and selection, Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-959-2020, 2020.
a
White, E.: Continuing Work on Improving Plant Performance Estimates, in: AWEA Wind Resource and Project Energy Assessment Workshop, Portland, OR, USA, 2008. a
Yan, J., Möhrlen, C., Göçmen, T., Kelly, M., Wessel, A., and Giebel, G.:
Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 165, 112519, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112519, 2022. a
Short summary
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published updated maps of the wind resource along all US coasts. Given the upcoming offshore wind development, it is essential to quantify the uncertainty that comes with the modeled wind resource data set. The paper proposes a novel approach to quantify this numerical uncertainty by leveraging available observations along the US East Coast.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published updated maps of the wind resource...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint