Articles | Volume 8, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1613-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1613-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 27 Oct 2023
| 27 Oct 2023
Extreme wind turbine response extrapolation with the Gaussian mixture model
Xiaodong Zhang
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Nikolay Dimitrov
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
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Xiaodong Zhang and Anand Natarajan
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2135–2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2135-2022, 2022
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Joint probability distribution of 10 min mean wind speed and the standard deviation is proposed using the Gaussian mixture model and has been shown to agree well with 15 years of measurements. The environmental contour with a 50-year return period (extreme turbulence) is estimated. The results from the model could be taken as inputs for structural reliability analysis and uncertainty quantification of wind turbine design loads.
Moritz Johann Gräfe, Vasilis Pettas, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Po Wen Cheng
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-25, 2024
Preprint under review for WES
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This study explores a methodology using floater motion and nacelle-based lidar wind speed measurements to estimate the tension and damage equivalent loads (DELs) on floating offshore wind turbines' mooring lines. Results indicate that fairlead tension time series and DELs can be accurately estimated from floater motion time series. Using lidar measurements as model inputs for DEL predictions leads to similar accuracies as using displacement measurements of the floater.
Xiaodong Zhang and Anand Natarajan
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2135–2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2135-2022, 2022
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Joint probability distribution of 10 min mean wind speed and the standard deviation is proposed using the Gaussian mixture model and has been shown to agree well with 15 years of measurements. The environmental contour with a 50-year return period (extreme turbulence) is estimated. The results from the model could be taken as inputs for structural reliability analysis and uncertainty quantification of wind turbine design loads.
Davide Conti, Nikolay Dimitrov, Alfredo Peña, and Thomas Herges
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1117–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1117-2021, 2021
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We carry out a probabilistic calibration of the Dynamic Wake Meandering (DWM) model using high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution nacelle-based lidar measurements of the wake flow field. The experimental data were collected from the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility in Texas. The analysis includes the velocity deficit, wake-added turbulence, and wake meandering features under various inflow wind and atmospheric-stability conditions.
Davide Conti, Vasilis Pettas, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 841–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-841-2021, 2021
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We define two lidar-based procedures for improving the accuracy of wind turbine load assessment under wake conditions. The first approach incorporates lidar observations directly into turbulence fields serving as inputs for aeroelastic simulations; the second approach imposes lidar-fitted wake deficit time series on the turbulence fields. The uncertainty in the lidar-based power and load predictions is quantified for a variety of scanning configurations and atmosphere turbulence conditions.
Inga Reinwardt, Levin Schilling, Dirk Steudel, Nikolay Dimitrov, Peter Dalhoff, and Michael Breuer
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 441–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-441-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-441-2021, 2021
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This analysis validates the DWM model based on loads and power production measured at an onshore wind farm. Special focus is given to the performance of a version of the DWM model that was previously recalibrated with a lidar system at the site. The results of the recalibrated wake model agree very well with the measurements. Furthermore, lidar measurements of the wind speed deficit and the wake meandering are incorporated in the DWM model definition in order to decrease the uncertainties.
Davide Conti, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1129–1154, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1129-2020, 2020
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We propose a method for carrying out wind turbine load validation in wake conditions using measurements from forward-looking nacelle lidars. The uncertainty of aeroelastic load predictions is quantified against wind turbine on-board sensor data. This work demonstrates the applicability of nacelle-mounted lidar measurements to extend load and power validations under wake conditions and highlights the main challenges.
Laura Schröder, Nikolay Krasimirov Dimitrov, and David Robert Verelst
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1007-2020, 2020
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We suggest a methodology for correlating loads with component reliability of turbines in wind farms by combining physical modeling with machine learning. The suggested approach is demonstrated on an offshore wind farm for comparing performance, loads and lifetime estimations against recorded main bearing failures from maintenance reports. It is found that turbines positioned at the border of the wind farm with a higher expected AEP are estimated to experience earlier main bearing failures.
Ásta Hannesdóttir, Mark Kelly, and Nikolay Dimitrov
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 325–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-325-2019, 2019
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We investigate large wind speed fluctuations from a 10-year period at the Danish coastal site Høvsøre. The most extreme fluctuations are not turbulent but due to larger-scale weather phenomena. We find how these fluctuations impact wind turbines using simulations. The results are then compared to an extreme turbulence model described in the wind turbine safety standards, and it is found that the loads on the different turbine components are not the same as what the standard describes.
Nikolay Dimitrov, Mark C. Kelly, Andrea Vignaroli, and Jacob Berg
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 767–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-767-2018, 2018
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Wind energy site suitability assessment procedures often require estimating the loads a wind turbine will be subject to when installed. The estimation is often time-consuming and requires several iterations. We have developed a procedure for quick and accurate estimation of site-specific wind turbine loads. Our approach employs computationally efficient parametric models that are calibrated to high-fidelity load simulations. The result is a significant reduction in computation efforts.
Alfredo Peña, Jakob Mann, and Nikolay Dimitrov
Wind Energ. Sci., 2, 133–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-133-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-133-2017, 2017
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Nacelle lidars are nowadays extensively used to scan the turbine inflow. Thus, it is important to characterize turbulence from their measurements. We present two methods to perform turbulence estimation and demonstrate them using two types of lidars. With one method we can estimate the along-wind unfiltered variance accurately. With the other we can estimate the filtered radial velocity variance accurately and velocity-tensor parameters under neutral and high wind-speed conditions.
Related subject area
Thematic area: Wind technologies | Topic: Design concepts and methods for plants, turbines, and components
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Andrea Gamberini, Thanasis Barlas, Alejandro Gomez Gonzalez, and Helge Aagaard Madsen
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2023-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2023-63, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
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Andrew P. J. Stanley, Christopher J. Bay, and Paul Fleming
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1341–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1341-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1341-2023, 2023
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Better wind farms can be built by simultaneously optimizing turbine locations and control, which is currently impossible or extremely challenging because of the size of the problem. The authors present a method to determine optimal wind farm control as a function of the turbine locations, which enables turbine layout and control to be optimized together by drastically reducing the size of the problem. In an example, a wind farm's performance improves by 0.8 % when optimized with the new method.
Maaike Sickler, Bart Ummels, Michiel Zaaijer, Roland Schmehl, and Katherine Dykes
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1225–1233, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1225-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1225-2023, 2023
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This paper investigates the effect of wind farm layout on the performance of offshore wind farms. A regular farm layout is compared to optimised irregular layouts. The irregular layouts have higher annual energy production, and the power production is less sensitive to wind direction. However, turbine towers require thicker walls to counteract increased fatigue due to increased turbulence levels in the farm. The study shows that layout optimisation can be used to maintain high-yield performance.
Nicholas Peters, Christopher Silva, and John Ekaterinaris
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1201–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1201-2023, 2023
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Paul Veers, Carlo L. Bottasso, Lance Manuel, Jonathan Naughton, Lucy Pao, Joshua Paquette, Amy Robertson, Michael Robinson, Shreyas Ananthan, Thanasis Barlas, Alessandro Bianchini, Henrik Bredmose, Sergio González Horcas, Jonathan Keller, Helge Aagaard Madsen, James Manwell, Patrick Moriarty, Stephen Nolet, and Jennifer Rinker
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1071–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1071-2023, 2023
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Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operation of future wind turbine and wind plant systems are articulated, and key research activities are recommended.
Kisorthman Vimalakanthan, Harald van der Mijle Meijer, Iana Bakhmet, and Gerard Schepers
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 41–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-41-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-41-2023, 2023
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Leading edge erosion (LEE) is one of the most critical degradation mechanisms that occur with wind turbine blades. A detailed understanding of the LEE process and the impact on aerodynamic performance due to the damaged leading edge is required to optimize blade maintenance. Providing accurate modeling tools is therefore essential. This novel study assesses CFD approaches for modeling high-resolution scanned LE surfaces from an actual blade with LEE damages.
Paul Veers, Katherine Dykes, Sukanta Basu, Alessandro Bianchini, Andrew Clifton, Peter Green, Hannele Holttinen, Lena Kitzing, Branko Kosovic, Julie K. Lundquist, Johan Meyers, Mark O'Malley, William J. Shaw, and Bethany Straw
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Wind energy will play a central role in the transition of our energy system to a carbon-free future. However, many underlying scientific issues remain to be resolved before wind can be deployed in the locations and applications needed for such large-scale ambitions. The Grand Challenges are the gaps in the science left behind during the rapid growth of wind energy. This article explains the breadth of the unfinished business and introduces 10 articles that detail the research needs.
Alessandro Bianchini, Galih Bangga, Ian Baring-Gould, Alessandro Croce, José Ignacio Cruz, Rick Damiani, Gareth Erfort, Carlos Simao Ferreira, David Infield, Christian Navid Nayeri, George Pechlivanoglou, Mark Runacres, Gerard Schepers, Brent Summerville, David Wood, and Alice Orrell
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2003–2037, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2003-2022, 2022
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The paper is part of the Grand Challenges Papers for Wind Energy. It provides a status of small wind turbine technology in terms of technical maturity, diffusion, and cost. Then, five grand challenges that are thought to be key to fostering the development of the technology are proposed. To tackle these challenges, a series of unknowns and gaps are first identified and discussed. Improvement areas are highlighted, within which 10 key enabling actions are finally proposed to the wind community.
Mads H. Aa. Madsen, Frederik Zahle, Sergio González Horcas, Thanasis K. Barlas, and Niels N. Sørensen
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1471–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1471-2022, 2022
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This work presents a shape optimization framework based on computational fluid dynamics. The design framework is used to optimize wind turbine blade tips for maximum power increase while avoiding that extra loading is incurred. The final results are shown to align well with related literature. The resulting tip shape could be mounted on already installed wind turbines as a sleeve-like solution or be conceived as part of a modular blade with tips designed for site-specific conditions.
Edward Hart, Adam Stock, George Elderfield, Robin Elliott, James Brasseur, Jonathan Keller, Yi Guo, and Wooyong Song
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1209–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1209-2022, 2022
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We consider characteristics and drivers of loads experienced by wind turbine main bearings using simplified models of hub and main-bearing configurations. Influences of deterministic wind characteristics are investigated for 5, 7.5, and 10 MW turbine models. Load response to gusts and wind direction changes are also considered. Cubic load scaling is observed, veer is identified as an important driver of load fluctuations, and strong links between control and main-bearing load response are shown.
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Short summary
Wind turbine extreme response estimation based on statistical extrapolation necessitates using a small number of simulations to calculate a low exceedance probability. This is a challenging task especially if we require small prediction error. We propose the use of a Gaussian mixture model as it is capable of estimating a low exceedance probability with minor bias error, even with limited simulation data, having flexibility in modeling the distributions of varying response variables.
Wind turbine extreme response estimation based on statistical extrapolation necessitates using a...
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