Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-559-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-559-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Mar 2025
Research article |
| 19 Mar 2025
| 19 Mar 2025
Enabling efficient sizing of hybrid power plants: a surrogate-based approach to energy management system modeling
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Juan Pablo Murcia Leon
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Julian Quick
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Tuhfe Göçmen
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Sami Ghazouani
TotalEnergies, La Défense, Paris, France
Kaushik Das
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
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Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-34, 2026
Preprint under review for WES
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Predicting wind farm energy production is challenging because wind patterns are complex. We tested 16 different models against real data from a major field experiment to see which worked best. Surprisingly, the most expensive and detailed models were not always more accurate than simpler ones. We found that feeding models better weather data was the most effective way to improve accuracy. These results help the industry choose the right tools for designing more efficient wind farms.
Andreas Vad, Adrien Guilloré, Abhinav Anand, Vasilis Pettas, Anik H. Shah, Ion Lizarraga-Saenz, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Irene Eguinoa, Nicolau Conti Gost, Iasonas Tsaklis, Ariane Frère, Koen W. Hermans, Joseph K. Kamau, Nikolay Dimitrov, Tuhfe Göçmen, and Carlo L. Bottasso
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-45, 2026
Preprint under review for WES
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A modular, computationally efficient framework for wind‑farm response modeling is presented. It combines an engineering wake model with surrogate models trained on extensive aeroelastic simulations generated using a novel method for synthetic waked and clean inflows. The wind‑farm‑agnostic framework supports multiple turbine types and layouts, enabling accurate, low‑cost predictions for design, operation, and control.
Julian Quick, Edward Hart, Marcus Binder Nilsen, Rasmus Sode Lund, Jaime Liew, Piinshin Huang, Pierre-Elouan Rethore, Jonathan Keller, Wooyong Song, and Yi Guo
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 493–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-493-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-493-2026, 2026
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Wind turbine main bearings often fail prematurely, creating costly maintenance challenges. This study examined how wake effects – where upstream turbines create disturbed airflow that impacts downstream turbines – affect bearing lifespans. Using computer simulations, we found that wake effects reduce bearing life by 16 % on average. The direction of wake impact matters significantly due to interactions between wind forces and gravity, informing better wind turbine and farm design strategies.
Jens Peter Schøler, Ernestas Simutis, M. Paul van der Laan, Julian Quick, and Pierre-Elouan Réthoré
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-19, 2026
Preprint under review for WES
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Wind turbines create wakes, with lower speeds that reduce downstream power. Optimizing turbine placement requires accounting for these reductions. We compared a neural network trained on CFD simulations against engineering wake models across various farm sizes. The neural network predicted flow most accurately but was slower. Surprisingly, a simple TurbOPark model produced layouts with higher validated energy output, suggesting that accuracy is not the only important metric for such models.
Jens Peter Schøler, Frederik Peder Weilmann Rasmussen, Julian Quick, and Pierre-Eloaun Réthoré
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-261, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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We built a machine learning model that predicts how wind moves through an entire wind farm. It learns from many detailed simulations and uses the novel idea of graph learning to scale to larger farms. The model captures complex wake effects better than older methods and cuts computing costs, letting designers explore many layouts quickly without running expensive full simulations.
Thuy-Hai Nguyen, Julian Quick, Pierre-Elouan Réthoré, Jean-François Toubeau, Emmanuel De Jaeger, and François Vallée
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1661–1680, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1661-2025, 2025
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Current offshore wind farms have been designed to maximize their production of electricity at all times and not to keep a reserve of power in case of unexpected events on the grid. We present a new formulation for designing wind farms to maximize revenues from both energy and reserve markets. We apply it to a real-life wind farm and show that profits are expected to increase in a significant way for wind farms designed and operated for reserve, with less energy supplied.
Juan Felipe Céspedes Moreno, Juan Pablo Murcia León, and Søren Juhl Andersen
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 597–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-597-2025, 2025
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Using a global base in a proper orthogonal decomposition provides a common base for analyzing flows, such as wind turbine wakes, across an entire parameter space. This can be used to compare flows with different conditions using the same physical interpretation. This work shows the convergence of the global base, its small error compared to the truncation error in the flow reconstruction, and the insensitivity to which datasets are included for generating the global base.
Jens Visbech, Tuhfe Göçmen, Özge Sinem Özçakmak, Alexander Meyer Forsting, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Pierre-Elouan Réthoré
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1811–1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1811-2024, 2024
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Leading-edge erosion (LEE) can impact wind turbine aerodynamics and wind farm efficiency. This study couples LEE prediction, aerodynamic loss modeling, and wind farm flow modeling to show that LEE's effects on wake dynamics can affect overall energy production. Without preventive initiatives, the effects of LEE increase over time, resulting in significant annual energy production (AEP) loss.
Yuriy Marykovskiy, Thomas Clark, Justin Day, Marcus Wiens, Charles Henderson, Julian Quick, Imad Abdallah, Anna Maria Sempreviva, Jean-Paul Calbimonte, Eleni Chatzi, and Sarah Barber
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 883–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-883-2024, 2024
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This paper delves into the crucial task of transforming raw data into actionable knowledge which can be used by advanced artificial intelligence systems – a challenge that spans various domains, industries, and scientific fields amid their digital transformation journey. This article underscores the significance of cross-industry collaboration and learning, drawing insights from sectors leading in digitalisation, and provides strategic guidance for further development in this area.
Juan Pablo Murcia Leon, Hajar Habbou, Mikkel Friis-Møller, Megha Gupta, Rujie Zhu, and Kaushik Das
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-759-2024, 2024
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A methodology for an early design of hybrid power plants (wind, solar, PV, and Li-ion battery storage) consisting of a nested optimization that sizes the components and internal operation optimization. Traditional designs that minimize the levelized cost of energy give worse business cases and do not include storage. Optimal operation balances the increasing revenues and faster battery degradation. Battery degradation and replacement costs are needed to estimate the viability of hybrid projects.
Javier Criado Risco, Rafael Valotta Rodrigues, Mikkel Friis-Møller, Julian Quick, Mads Mølgaard Pedersen, and Pierre-Elouan Réthoré
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 585–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-585-2024, 2024
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Wind energy developers frequently have to face some spatial restrictions at the time of designing a new wind farm due to different reasons, such as the existence of protected natural areas around the wind farm location, fishing routes, and the presence of buildings. Wind farm design has to account for these restricted areas, but sometimes this is not straightforward to achieve. We have developed a methodology that allows for different inclusion and exclusion areas in the optimization framework.
Rafael Valotta Rodrigues, Mads Mølgaard Pedersen, Jens Peter Schøler, Julian Quick, and Pierre-Elouan Réthoré
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 321–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-321-2024, 2024
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The use of wind energy has been growing over the last few decades, and further increase is predicted. As the wind energy industry is starting to consider larger wind farms, the existing numerical methods for analysis of small and medium wind farms need to be improved. In this article, we have explored different strategies to tackle the problem in a feasible and timely way. The final product is a set of recommendations when carrying out trade-off analysis on large wind farms.
Jaime Liew, Tuhfe Göçmen, Alan W. H. Lio, and Gunner Chr. Larsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1387–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1387-2023, 2023
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We present recent research on dynamically modelling wind farm wakes and integrating these enhancements into the wind farm simulator, HAWC2Farm. The simulation methodology is showcased by recreating dynamic scenarios observed in the Lillgrund offshore wind farm. We successfully recreate scenarios with turning winds, turbine shutdown events, and wake deflection events. The research provides opportunities to better identify wake interactions in wind farms, allowing for more reliable designs.
Julian Quick, Pierre-Elouan Rethore, Mads Mølgaard Pedersen, Rafael Valotta Rodrigues, and Mikkel Friis-Møller
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1235–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1235-2023, 2023
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Wind turbine positions are often optimized to avoid wake losses. These losses depend on atmospheric conditions, such as the wind speed and direction. The typical optimization scheme involves discretizing the atmospheric inputs, then considering every possible set of these discretized inputs in every optimization iteration. This work presents stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as an alternative, which randomly samples the atmospheric conditions during every optimization iteration.
Andrew Clifton, Sarah Barber, Andrew Bray, Peter Enevoldsen, Jason Fields, Anna Maria Sempreviva, Lindy Williams, Julian Quick, Mike Purdue, Philip Totaro, and Yu Ding
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 947–974, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-947-2023, 2023
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Wind energy creates huge amounts of data, which can be used to improve plant design, raise efficiency, reduce operating costs, and ease integration. These all contribute to cheaper and more predictable energy from wind. But realising the value of data requires a digital transformation that brings
grand challengesaround data, culture, and coopetition. This paper describes how the wind energy industry could work with R&D organisations, funding agencies, and others to overcome them.
Jens Visbech, Tuhfe Göçmen, Charlotte Bay Hasager, Hristo Shkalov, Morten Handberg, and Kristian Pagh Nielsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 173–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-173-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a data-driven framework for modeling erosion damage based on real blade inspections and mesoscale weather data. The outcome of the framework is a machine-learning-based model that can predict and/or forecast leading-edge erosion damage based on weather data and user-specified wind turbine characteristics. The model output fits directly into the damage terminology used by the industry and can therefore support site-specific maintenance planning and scheduling of repairs.
Johan Meyers, Carlo Bottasso, Katherine Dykes, Paul Fleming, Pieter Gebraad, Gregor Giebel, Tuhfe Göçmen, and Jan-Willem van Wingerden
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2271–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2271-2022, 2022
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We provide a comprehensive overview of the state of the art and the outstanding challenges in wind farm flow control, thus identifying the key research areas that could further enable commercial uptake and success. To this end, we have structured the discussion on challenges and opportunities into four main areas: (1) insight into control flow physics, (2) algorithms and AI, (3) validation and industry implementation, and (4) integrating control with system design
(co-design).
Konstanze Kölle, Tuhfe Göçmen, Irene Eguinoa, Leonardo Andrés Alcayaga Román, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Ju Feng, Johan Meyers, Vasilis Pettas, and Ishaan Sood
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2181–2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2181-2022, 2022
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The paper studies wind farm flow control (WFFC) in simulations with variable electricity prices. The results indicate that considering the electricity price in the operational strategy can be beneficial with respect to the gained income compared to focusing on the power gain only. Moreover, revenue maximization by balancing power production and structural load reduction is demonstrated at the example of a single wind turbine.
Søren Juhl Andersen and Juan Pablo Murcia Leon
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2117-2022, 2022
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Simulating the turbulent flow inside large wind farms is inherently complex and computationally expensive. A new and fast model is developed based on data from high-fidelity simulations. The model captures the flow dynamics with correct statistics for a wide range of flow conditions. The model framework provides physical insights and presents a generalization of high-fidelity simulation results beyond the case-specific scenarios, which has significant potential for future turbulence modeling.
Julian Quick, Ryan N. King, Garrett Barter, and Peter E. Hamlington
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1941-2022, 2022
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Wake steering is an emerging wind power plant control strategy where upstream turbines are intentionally yawed out of alignment with the incoming wind, thereby steering wakes away from downstream turbines. Trade-offs between the gains in power production and fatigue loads induced by this control strategy are the subject of continuing investigation. In this study, we present an optimization approach for efficiently exploring the trade-offs between power and loading during wake steering.
Tuhfe Göçmen, Filippo Campagnolo, Thomas Duc, Irene Eguinoa, Søren Juhl Andersen, Vlaho Petrović, Lejla Imširović, Robert Braunbehrens, Jaime Liew, Mads Baungaard, Maarten Paul van der Laan, Guowei Qian, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Rubén González-Lope, Vinit V. Dighe, Marcus Becker, Maarten J. van den Broek, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, Adam Stock, Matthew Cole, Renzo Ruisi, Ervin Bossanyi, Niklas Requate, Simon Strnad, Jonas Schmidt, Lukas Vollmer, Ishaan Sood, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1791–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1791-2022, 2022
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The FarmConners benchmark is the first of its kind to bring a wide variety of data sets, control settings, and model complexities for the (initial) assessment of wind farm flow control benefits. Here we present the first part of the benchmark results for three blind tests with large-scale rotors and 11 participating models in total, via direct power comparisons at the turbines as well as the observed or estimated power gain at the wind farm level under wake steering control strategy.
Jana Fischereit, Kurt Schaldemose Hansen, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Maarten Paul van der Laan, Pierre-Elouan Réthoré, and Juan Pablo Murcia Leon
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1069–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1069-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1069-2022, 2022
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Wind turbines extract kinetic energy from the flow to create electricity. This induces a wake of reduced wind speed downstream of a turbine and consequently downstream of a wind farm. Different types of numerical models have been developed to calculate this effect. In this study, we compared models of different complexity, together with measurements over two wind farms. We found that higher-fidelity models perform better and the considered rapid models cannot fully capture the wake effect.
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Short summary
This research develops a new method for assessing hybrid power plant (HPP) profitability, combining wind and battery systems. It addresses the need for an efficient, accurate, and comprehensive operational model by approximating a state-of-the-art energy management system (EMS) for spot market power bidding using machine learning. The approach significantly reduces computational demands while maintaining high accuracy. It thus opens new possibilities in terms of optimizing the design of HPPs.
This research develops a new method for assessing hybrid power plant (HPP) profitability,...
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