Articles | Volume 11, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-4093-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-4093-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Nov 2026
Research article |
| 03 Nov 2026
| 03 Nov 2026
The AWAKEN wind farm benchmark – Part 1: Observed conditions
National Wind Technology Center, National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO, USA
Aliza Abraham
National Wind Technology Center, National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO, USA
Paula Doubrawa
WSP USA Inc., Boulder, CO, USA
Stefano Letizia
National Wind Technology Center, National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO, USA
Julie K. Lundquist
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
National Wind Technology Center, National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO, USA
Patrick Moriarty
National Wind Technology Center, National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO, USA
Ryan Scott
GE Vernova Inc., 58 Charles St, Cambridge, MA 02141, USA
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Serena Lipari, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Bianca Adler, Laura Bianco, Nicola Bodini, Matthis Chabert d'Hières, Harindra J. S. Fernando, Robert Jackson, Michael Kieburtz, Anthony Kirincich, Stefano Letizia, Julie K. Lundquist, Paytsar Muradyan, Rob K. Newsom, Joseph O'Brien, Sujan Pal, Mikhail Pekour, David D. Turner, Sonia Wharton, and Seth Zippel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5984, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
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Wind energy and weather forecasts depend on knowing how winds change with height. We combined laser, radar, and tower measurements to map winds and their fluctuations every ten minutes, using 19 months of observations at four coastal sites in the northeastern United States. In fog, which limits laser measurements, median data availability at 100–300 meters was 94.5% at a site with radar, compared with 39.3% at a site using only lasers. The method and dataset are freely available.
Nicola Bodini, Emina Maric, Ulrike Egerer, Grant Buster, Luke Lavin, Pavlo Pinchuk, Brandon Benton, and David D. Turner
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3919-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3919-2026, 2026
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To plan a reliable United States power grid, engineers need continuous weather data. Because the previous standard record ended in 2013, we created a new, easy-to-use weather database by repackaging complex weather forecasting models onto the same historical grid. We compared our data against real-world observations nationwide, finding it is highly accurate. This provides a seamless, reliable new standard to help plan the future of our national energy system.
Bianca Adler, Laura Bianco, David D. Turner, Joseph Olson, Xia Sun, Joshua Gebauer, Nicola Bodini, Stefano Letizia, and James M. Wilczak
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 8627–8649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8627-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8627-2026, 2026
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Accurate operational forecasts of temperature and wind in the coastal marine boundary layer are important for a wide range of applications. Leveraging data that were collected along the United States northeast coast during a multi-year period for the Third Wind Forecast Improvement project, we investigated the performance of the operational forecast model and identified systematic errors in wind and temperature forecasts that are now being addressed by the model developers.
Nicola Bodini, Grant Buster, and David D. Turner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-680, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Alaska's power systems depend on weather, yet weather stations there are few and far between. We turned seven years of hourly output from a national weather forecast model into an easy-to-use record of wind and temperature across Alaska, and checked it against measurements from more than 150 sites. The data generally match observations well, and are freely available to support energy planning, resilient power grids, and artificial intelligence research in this remote region.
Nicola Bodini, Patrick Moriarty, Regis Thedin, Paula Doubrawa, Cristina Archer, Myra Blaylock, Carlo Bottasso, Bruno Carmo, Lawrence Cheung, Camille Dubreuil, Rogier Floors, Thomas Herges, Daniel Houck, Ali Kanjari, Colleen M. Kaul, Christopher Kelley, Ru Li, Julie K. Lundquist, Desirae Major, Anh Kiet Nguyen, Mike Optis, Luan R. C. Parada, Alfredo Peña, Julian Quick, David Ricarte, William C. Radünz, Raj K. Rai, Oscar García-Santiago, Jonas Schulte, Knut S. Seim, M. Paul van der Laan, Kisorthman Vimalakanthan, and Adam Wise
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 3107–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3107-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3107-2026, 2026
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Predicting wind farm energy production is challenging because wind patterns are complex. We tested 16 different models against real data from a major field experiment to see which worked best. Surprisingly, the most expensive and detailed models were not always more accurate than simpler ones. We found that feeding models better weather data was the most effective way to improve accuracy. These results help the industry choose the right tools for designing more-efficient wind farms.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Tien Manh Nguyen, Yi-Leng Chen, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Feng Hsiao, Rob K. Newsom, Preston Spicer, Evgueni Kassianov, Mikhail Pekour, Nicola Bodini, and Mark Severy
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2257–2285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2257-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2257-2026, 2026
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Wind simulations can contain significant errors, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation. Using observations from a floating lidar off Hawai'i, we hypothesize and establish that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors in this offshore environment. The most commonly used simulation dataset produces the largest wind speed biases due to underestimation of fast wind speeds and misrepresentation of how wind speed varies throughout the day and night.
Nicola Bodini, Joseph Olson, Brian Gaudet, Giacomo Valerio Iungo, Mojtaba Shams Solari, Sayahnya Roy, Julie K. Lundquist, Nathan Agarwal, Timothy A. Myers, Bianca Adler, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Eric James, Laura Bianco, James M. Wilczak, and David D. Turner
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 1949–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1949-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1949-2026, 2026
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To improve offshore wind forecasts, the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project monitored the United States east coast for 18 months. We compiled a daily log of weather events using advanced scanners and expert notes. This public dataset identifies important wind patterns, helping scientists test computer models and choose specific cases to study.
Aliza Abraham, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Brian Hirth, John Schroeder, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-82, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for WES
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Thunderstorms can cause sudden changes in wind speed and direction called "wind ramps". While wind turbines are designed to withstand simplified versions of such wind ramps, this paper shows that real wind ramps are much more variable and complex than those prescribed in the design standard. This variability makes it difficult for wind farm operators to predict the conditions that each wind turbine will experience, adding uncertainty to the prediction of wind farm power.
Yelena Pichugina, Alan W. Brewer, Sunil Baidar, Robert Banta, Edward Strobach, Brandi McCarty, Brian Carroll, Nicola Bodini, Stefano Letizia, Richard Marchbanks, Michael Zucker, Maxwell Holloway, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 417–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-417-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-417-2026, 2026
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Aliza Abraham, Matteo Puccioni, Arianna Jordan, Emina Maric, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Stefano Letizia, Petra M. Klein, Elizabeth N. Smith, Sonia Wharton, Jonathan Gero, Jamey D. Jacob, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Mikhail Pekour, William Radünz, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1681–1705, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1681-2025, 2025
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This study is the first to use real-world atmospheric measurements to show that large wind plants can increase the height of the planetary boundary layer, the part of the atmosphere near the surface where life takes place. The planetary boundary layer height governs processes like pollutant transport and cloud formation and is a key parameter for modeling the atmosphere. The results of this study provide important insights into interactions between wind plants and their local environment.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Jiali Wang, Caroline Draxl, Nicola Bodini, Caleb Phillips, Dmitry Duplyakin, Heidi Tinnesand, Raj K. Rai, Julia E. Flaherty, Larry K. Berg, Chunyong Jung, Ethan Young, and Rao Kotamarthi
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1551–1574, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1551-2025, 2025
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Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, Nicola Bodini, and David Rosencrans
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Offshore wind farms along the US East Coast can have limited effects on local weather. To study these effects, we include wind farms near Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and we test different amounts of turbulence in our model. We analyze changes in wind, temperature, and turbulence. Simulated effects on surface temperature and turbulence change depending on how much turbulence is added to the model. The extent of the wind farm wake depends on how deep the atmospheric boundary layer is.
Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Colleen M. Kaul, Stefano Letizia, Mikhail Pekour, Nicholas Hamilton, Duli Chand, Donna Flynn, Nicola Bodini, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 361–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-361-2025, 2025
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David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 59–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-59-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-59-2025, 2025
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The US offshore wind industry is growing rapidly. Expansion into cold climates will subject turbines and personnel to hazardous icing. We analyze the 21-year icing risk for US east coast wind areas based on numerical weather prediction simulations and further assess impacts from wind farm wakes over one winter season. Sea spray icing at 10 m can occur up to 67 h per month. However, turbine–atmosphere interactions reduce icing hours within wind plant areas.
Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Stephanie Redfern, David Rosencrans, Alex Rybchuk, Julie K. Lundquist, Vincent Pronk, Simon Castagneri, Avi Purkayastha, Caroline Draxl, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Ethan Young, Billy Roberts, Evan Rosenlieb, and Walter Musial
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1965–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, 2024
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This article presents the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), an updated resource for offshore wind information in the US. It replaces the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, offering improved accuracy through advanced weather prediction models. The data underwent regional tuning and validation and can be accessed at no cost.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Brian J. Gaudet, Nicola Bodini, Rob K. Newsom, and Mikhail Pekour
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 741–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, 2024
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In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas and provided valuable year-long analyses of offshore low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. In addition to the LLJ climatology, this work provides validation of LLJ representation in atmospheric models that are essential for assessing the potential energy yield of offshore wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, Alex Rybchuk, Nicola Bodini, and Michael Rossol
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, 2024
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The US offshore wind industry is developing rapidly. Using yearlong simulations of wind plants in the US mid-Atlantic, we assess the impacts of wind turbine wakes. While wakes are the strongest and longest during summertime stably stratified conditions, when New England grid demand peaks, they are predictable and thus manageable. Over a year, wakes reduce power output by over 35 %. Wakes in a wind plant contribute the most to that reduction, while wakes between wind plants play a secondary role.
Nicola Bodini, Simon Castagneri, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 607–620, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023, 2023
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The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published updated maps of the wind resource along all US coasts. Given the upcoming offshore wind development, it is essential to quantify the uncertainty that comes with the modeled wind resource data set. The paper proposes a novel approach to quantify this numerical uncertainty by leveraging available observations along the US East Coast.
Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Julie K. Lundquist, David Rosencrans, Nicola Bodini, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2085–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, 2022
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Numerical weather prediction models are used to predict how wind turbines will interact with the atmosphere. Here, we characterize the uncertainty associated with the choice of turbulence parameterization on modeled wakes. We find that simulated wind speed deficits in turbine wakes can be significantly sensitive to the choice of turbulence parameterization. As such, predictions of future generated power are also sensitive to turbulence parameterization choice.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Nicola Bodini, Weiming Hu, Mike Optis, Guido Cervone, and Stefano Alessandrini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1363–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, 2021
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We develop two machine-learning-based approaches to temporally extrapolate uncertainty in hub-height wind speed modeled by a numerical weather prediction model. We test our approaches in the California Outer Continental Shelf, where a significant offshore wind energy development is currently being planned, and we find that both provide accurate results.
Serena Lipari, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Bianca Adler, Laura Bianco, Nicola Bodini, Matthis Chabert d'Hières, Harindra J. S. Fernando, Robert Jackson, Michael Kieburtz, Anthony Kirincich, Stefano Letizia, Julie K. Lundquist, Paytsar Muradyan, Rob K. Newsom, Joseph O'Brien, Sujan Pal, Mikhail Pekour, David D. Turner, Sonia Wharton, and Seth Zippel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5984, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
Wind energy and weather forecasts depend on knowing how winds change with height. We combined laser, radar, and tower measurements to map winds and their fluctuations every ten minutes, using 19 months of observations at four coastal sites in the northeastern United States. In fog, which limits laser measurements, median data availability at 100–300 meters was 94.5% at a site with radar, compared with 39.3% at a site using only lasers. The method and dataset are freely available.
Nicola Bodini, Emina Maric, Ulrike Egerer, Grant Buster, Luke Lavin, Pavlo Pinchuk, Brandon Benton, and David D. Turner
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3919-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3919-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
To plan a reliable United States power grid, engineers need continuous weather data. Because the previous standard record ended in 2013, we created a new, easy-to-use weather database by repackaging complex weather forecasting models onto the same historical grid. We compared our data against real-world observations nationwide, finding it is highly accurate. This provides a seamless, reliable new standard to help plan the future of our national energy system.
Bianca Adler, Laura Bianco, David D. Turner, Joseph Olson, Xia Sun, Joshua Gebauer, Nicola Bodini, Stefano Letizia, and James M. Wilczak
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 8627–8649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8627-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8627-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate operational forecasts of temperature and wind in the coastal marine boundary layer are important for a wide range of applications. Leveraging data that were collected along the United States northeast coast during a multi-year period for the Third Wind Forecast Improvement project, we investigated the performance of the operational forecast model and identified systematic errors in wind and temperature forecasts that are now being addressed by the model developers.
Nicola Bodini, Grant Buster, and David D. Turner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-680, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
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Alaska's power systems depend on weather, yet weather stations there are few and far between. We turned seven years of hourly output from a national weather forecast model into an easy-to-use record of wind and temperature across Alaska, and checked it against measurements from more than 150 sites. The data generally match observations well, and are freely available to support energy planning, resilient power grids, and artificial intelligence research in this remote region.
Nicola Bodini, Patrick Moriarty, Regis Thedin, Paula Doubrawa, Cristina Archer, Myra Blaylock, Carlo Bottasso, Bruno Carmo, Lawrence Cheung, Camille Dubreuil, Rogier Floors, Thomas Herges, Daniel Houck, Ali Kanjari, Colleen M. Kaul, Christopher Kelley, Ru Li, Julie K. Lundquist, Desirae Major, Anh Kiet Nguyen, Mike Optis, Luan R. C. Parada, Alfredo Peña, Julian Quick, David Ricarte, William C. Radünz, Raj K. Rai, Oscar García-Santiago, Jonas Schulte, Knut S. Seim, M. Paul van der Laan, Kisorthman Vimalakanthan, and Adam Wise
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 3107–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3107-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-3107-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting wind farm energy production is challenging because wind patterns are complex. We tested 16 different models against real data from a major field experiment to see which worked best. Surprisingly, the most expensive and detailed models were not always more accurate than simpler ones. We found that feeding models better weather data was the most effective way to improve accuracy. These results help the industry choose the right tools for designing more-efficient wind farms.
Georgios Deskos, Jiali Wang, Sanjay Arwade, Murray Fisher, Brian Hirth, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Julie K. Lundquist, Andrew Myers, Weichiang Pang, William J. Pringle, Robert Rogers, Miguel Sanchez-Gomez, Chao Sun, Atsushi Yamaguchi, and Paul Veers
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2749–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2749-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2749-2026, 2026
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Wind energy is expanding into regions exposed to tropical cyclones, where extreme winds and waves can damage turbines and disrupt energy production. We reviewed observations, simulations, engineering standards, and risk quantification frameworks to identify the most important gaps. Today's design rules, originally built for milder storms, do not capture cyclone hazards. Closing these gaps requires better offshore measurements, improved models, and risk-informed design standards.
William C. Radünz, Jens H. Kasper, Richard J. A. M. Stevens, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2723–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2723-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2723-2026, 2026
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Wind farms extract energy from the wind, creating slower, more turbulent flows that can affect other farms downstream. Using high-fidelity simulations for comparison, we find that mesoscale simulations that parameterize wind farms at coarser resolution may underestimate how quickly the wind recovers downstream. This slow recovery results from missing sharp wind gradients and low turbulence. Improving these aspects can help better predict wind energy production over long distances.
Adam S. Wise, Robert S. Arthur, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Julie K. Lundquist, and Fotini K. Chow
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2543–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2543-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2543-2026, 2026
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At night, wind farms can experience a wide range of intermittent wind events that can affect how much power is produced. We modeled a specific type of intermittent wind event that happens as the atmosphere gets colder and colder throughout a night. We identified a threshold to determine when these events impact wind farms and ultimately found that mainly the front of a wind farm tends to be most impacted by these sorts of events.
Valeria Vasquez-Barros, Nicola Bodini, Seth Zippel, Anthony Kirincich, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-115, 2026
Preprint under review for WES
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Offshore wind turbines operate more than 100 meters above the ocean, but atmospheric conditions are often measured only near the sea surface. Using observations from an offshore research platform, we found that surface measurements frequently do not represent the conditions experienced by turbines because the lower atmosphere can become decoupled. These results highlight the need for measurements throughout the turbine height to improve wind energy forecasting and operations.
Nathan J. Agarwal, Julie K. Lundquist, Timothy W. Juliano, and Alex Rybchuk
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2369–2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2369-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2369-2026, 2026
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Models of wind behavior inform offshore wind farm site investment decisions. Here we compare a newly developed model to another, historically used model based on how these models represent winds and turbulence at two North Sea sites. The best model depends on the site. While the older model performs best at the site above a wind farm, the newer model performs best at the site that is at the same altitude as the wind farm. We support using the new model to represent winds at the turbine level.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Tien Manh Nguyen, Yi-Leng Chen, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Feng Hsiao, Rob K. Newsom, Preston Spicer, Evgueni Kassianov, Mikhail Pekour, Nicola Bodini, and Mark Severy
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2257–2285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2257-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2257-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Wind simulations can contain significant errors, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation. Using observations from a floating lidar off Hawai'i, we hypothesize and establish that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors in this offshore environment. The most commonly used simulation dataset produces the largest wind speed biases due to underestimation of fast wind speeds and misrepresentation of how wind speed varies throughout the day and night.
Miguel Sanchez-Gomez, Georgios Deskos, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Michael Sinner, Geng Xia, and Walter Musial
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 2009–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2009-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-2009-2026, 2026
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Mesoscale simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization were compared to large-domain large-eddy simulations for three planned offshore wind farms under varied atmospheric conditions. Mesoscale runs captured key wake deficit patterns and stability effects in the wind farm wake evolution but underestimated power losses from internal wakes, especially in aligned winds or stable conditions. Results highlight mesoscale strengths for large-scale wakes and limits for turbine-level losses.
Nicola Bodini, Joseph Olson, Brian Gaudet, Giacomo Valerio Iungo, Mojtaba Shams Solari, Sayahnya Roy, Julie K. Lundquist, Nathan Agarwal, Timothy A. Myers, Bianca Adler, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Eric James, Laura Bianco, James M. Wilczak, and David D. Turner
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 1949–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1949-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1949-2026, 2026
Short summary
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To improve offshore wind forecasts, the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project monitored the United States east coast for 18 months. We compiled a daily log of weather events using advanced scanners and expert notes. This public dataset identifies important wind patterns, helping scientists test computer models and choose specific cases to study.
Øyvind Waage Hanssen-Bauer, Paula Doubrawa, Helge A. Madsen, Henrik Asmuth, Jason Jonkman, Gunner C. Larsen, Stefan Ivanell, and Roy Stenbro
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 1913–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1913-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1913-2026, 2026
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We studied how different industry-oriented computer models predict the behavior of winds behind turbines in a wind farm. These
wakesreduce energy output and can affect turbines further down the row. By comparing these three models with more detailed simulations, we found they agree well on overall power but differ in how they capture turbulence and wear on machines. Our results show where the models need improvement to make wind farm computer models more accurate and reliable in the future.
Stefano Letizia, David D. Turner, Aliza Abraham, Luc Rochette, and Patrick J. Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 1653–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1653-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1653-2026, 2026
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Characterizing the wind resource is much more than just measuring wind speeds. In fact, the physics of the atmosphere is governed by a complex interplay of different quantities, temperature being one of the most important. We used a new technology to remotely sense temperature profiles around wind farms at AWAKEN (American WAKE ExperimeNt). Here, we discuss the methodology and guide readers through a comprehensive, step-by-step validation effort to quantify the accuracy of temperature profiling for wind energy.
Aliza Abraham, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Brian Hirth, John Schroeder, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2026-82, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for WES
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Thunderstorms can cause sudden changes in wind speed and direction called "wind ramps". While wind turbines are designed to withstand simplified versions of such wind ramps, this paper shows that real wind ramps are much more variable and complex than those prescribed in the design standard. This variability makes it difficult for wind farm operators to predict the conditions that each wind turbine will experience, adding uncertainty to the prediction of wind farm power.
Nathan J. Agarwal and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 883–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-883-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-883-2026, 2026
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Areas with hills and valleys can be either beneficial or challenging for wind energy applications, depending on the wind patterns. Unfortunately, predicting wind patterns in these areas is also challenging, and investing in measurement towers to improve wind forecasts can be expensive. We evaluate ways in which wind farm developers and other stakeholders interested in improving atmospheric forecasts in these areas can do so in a more cost-effective way.
Kira Gramitzky, Florian Jäger, Doron Callies, Tabea Hildebrand, Julie K. Lundquist, and Lukas Pauscher
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 861–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-861-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-861-2026, 2026
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This study introduces an extended sea surface levelling method for the accurate offshore calibration of scanning lidars. This method can determine the alignment of the laser beam, including any vertical shift, and is independent of the scan pattern. Tests using real measurement data and a detailed uncertainty study confirm its reliability. The study offers a versatile calibration approach and improves confidence in offshore wind measurements with scanning lidars.
Yelena Pichugina, Alan W. Brewer, Sunil Baidar, Robert Banta, Edward Strobach, Brandi McCarty, Brian Carroll, Nicola Bodini, Stefano Letizia, Richard Marchbanks, Michael Zucker, Maxwell Holloway, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 417–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-417-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-417-2026, 2026
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The truck-based Doppler lidar system was used during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) to obtain the high-frequency, simultaneous measurements of the horizontal wind speed, direction, and vertical velocity from a moving platform. The paper presents the unique capability of the novel lidar system to characterize the temporal, vertical, and spatial variability in winds at various distances from operating turbines and obtain quantitative estimates of wind speed reduction in the waked flow.
Anna Voss, Konrad B. Bärfuss, Beatriz Cañadillas, Maik Angermann, Mark Bitter, Matthias Cremer, Thomas Feuerle, Jonas Spoor, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, and Astrid Lampert
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-71-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-71-2026, 2026
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This study analyzes onshore wind farm wakes in a semi-complex terrain with data conducted with the research aircraft of TU Braunschweig during the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN). Vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind give insights into the stratification of the atmospheric boundary layer, while horizontal profiles downwind of wind farms reveal an amplification of the reduction in wind speed in a semi-complex terrain, in particular at a distance of 10 km.
William C. Radünz, Bruno Carmo, Julie K. Lundquist, Stefano Letizia, Aliza Abraham, Adam S. Wise, Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Nicholas Hamilton, Raj K. Rai, and Pedro S. Peixoto
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 2365–2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2365-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2365-2025, 2025
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We explore how simple terrain influences spatial variations in wind speed and wind farm performance during a low-level jet. Using simulations, field observations, and turbine production data, we find that downstream turbines produce more power than upstream ones, despite being subjected to wake effects. This counterintuitive result arises because the low-level jet and winds near turbine rotors are highly sensitive to topographic features, leading to stronger winds at the downstream turbines.
Geng Xia, Mike Optis, Georgios Deskos, Michael Sinner, Daniel Mulas Hernando, Julie Kay Lundquist, Andrew Kumler, Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Paul Fleming, and Walter Musial
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-154, 2025
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study examines energy losses from cluster wakes in offshore wind farms along the U.S. East Coast. Simulations based on real lease projects show that large wind speed deficits do not always cause equally large energy losses. The energy loss method revealed wake areas up to 30 % larger than traditional estimates, underscoring the need to consider both wind speed deficit and energy loss in planning offshore wind development.
Aliza Abraham, Matteo Puccioni, Arianna Jordan, Emina Maric, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Stefano Letizia, Petra M. Klein, Elizabeth N. Smith, Sonia Wharton, Jonathan Gero, Jamey D. Jacob, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Mikhail Pekour, William Radünz, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1681–1705, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1681-2025, 2025
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This study is the first to use real-world atmospheric measurements to show that large wind plants can increase the height of the planetary boundary layer, the part of the atmosphere near the surface where life takes place. The planetary boundary layer height governs processes like pollutant transport and cloud formation and is a key parameter for modeling the atmosphere. The results of this study provide important insights into interactions between wind plants and their local environment.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Jiali Wang, Caroline Draxl, Nicola Bodini, Caleb Phillips, Dmitry Duplyakin, Heidi Tinnesand, Raj K. Rai, Julia E. Flaherty, Larry K. Berg, Chunyong Jung, Ethan Young, and Rao Kotamarthi
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1551–1574, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1551-2025, 2025
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Three recent wind resource datasets are assessed for their skills in representing annual average wind speeds and seasonal, diurnal, and interannual trends in the wind resource in coastal locations to support customers interested in small and midsize wind energy.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, Nicola Bodini, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1269–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1269-2025, 2025
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Offshore wind farms along the US East Coast can have limited effects on local weather. To study these effects, we include wind farms near Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and we test different amounts of turbulence in our model. We analyze changes in wind, temperature, and turbulence. Simulated effects on surface temperature and turbulence change depending on how much turbulence is added to the model. The extent of the wind farm wake depends on how deep the atmospheric boundary layer is.
Robert S. Arthur, Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Gabriel Rios, Sonia Wharton, Julie K. Lundquist, and Jerome D. Fast
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1187–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1187-2025, 2025
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This paper evaluates a new model configuration for wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. We compare model results to observations in the Altamont Pass (California, USA), where wind channeling through a mountain gap leads to increased energy production. We demonstrate that the new model configuration performs similarly to a more established approach, with some evidence of improved wind speed predictions, and provide guidance for future model testing.
Adam S. Wise, Robert S. Arthur, Aliza Abraham, Sonia Wharton, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob Newsom, Brian Hirth, John Schroeder, Patrick Moriarty, and Fotini K. Chow
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1007–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1007-2025, 2025
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Wind farms can be subject to rapidly changing weather events. In the United States Great Plains, some of these weather events can result in waves in the atmosphere that ultimately affect how much power a wind farm can produce. We modeled a specific event of waves observed in Oklahoma. We determined how to accurately model the event and analyzed how it affected a wind farm’s power production, finding that the waves both decreased power and made it more variable.
Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Colleen M. Kaul, Stefano Letizia, Mikhail Pekour, Nicholas Hamilton, Duli Chand, Donna Flynn, Nicola Bodini, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 361–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-361-2025, 2025
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This study examines how atmospheric phenomena affect the recovery of wind farm wake – the disturbed air behind turbines. In regions like Oklahoma, where wind farms are often clustered, understanding wake recovery is crucial. We found that wind farms can alter phenomena like low-level jets, which are common in Oklahoma, by deflecting them above the wind farm. As a result, the impact of wakes can be observed up to 1–2 km above ground level.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 117–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-117-2025, 2025
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Offshore wind farms will be built along the East Coast of the United States. Low-level jets (LLJs) – layers of fast winds at low altitudes – also occur here. LLJs provide wind resources and also influence moisture and pollution transport, so it is important to understand how they might change. We develop and validate an automated tool to detect LLJs and compare 1 year of simulations with and without wind farms. Here, we describe LLJ characteristics and how they change with wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 59–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-59-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-59-2025, 2025
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The US offshore wind industry is growing rapidly. Expansion into cold climates will subject turbines and personnel to hazardous icing. We analyze the 21-year icing risk for US east coast wind areas based on numerical weather prediction simulations and further assess impacts from wind farm wakes over one winter season. Sea spray icing at 10 m can occur up to 67 h per month. However, turbine–atmosphere interactions reduce icing hours within wind plant areas.
Majid Bastankhah, Marcus Becker, Matthew Churchfield, Caroline Draxl, Jay Prakash Goit, Mehtab Khan, Luis A. Martinez Tossas, Johan Meyers, Patrick Moriarty, Wim Munters, Asim Önder, Sara Porchetta, Eliot Quon, Ishaan Sood, Nicole van Lipzig, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, Paul Veers, and Simon Watson
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2171–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2171-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2171-2024, 2024
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Dries Allaerts was born on 19 May 1989 and passed away at his home in Wezemaal, Belgium, on 10 October 2024 after battling cancer. Dries started his wind energy career in 2012 and had a profound impact afterward on the community, in terms of both his scientific realizations and his many friendships and collaborations in the field. His scientific acumen, open spirit of collaboration, positive attitude towards life, and playful and often cheeky sense of humor will be deeply missed by many.
Rachel Robey and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1905–1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1905-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1905-2024, 2024
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Measurements of wind turbine wakes with scanning lidar instruments contain complex errors. We model lidars in a simulated environment to understand how and why the measured wake may differ from the true wake and validate the results with observational data. The lidar smooths out the wake, making it seem more spread out and the slowdown of the winds less pronounced. Our findings provide insights into best practices for accurately measuring wakes with lidar and interpreting observational data.
Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Stephanie Redfern, David Rosencrans, Alex Rybchuk, Julie K. Lundquist, Vincent Pronk, Simon Castagneri, Avi Purkayastha, Caroline Draxl, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Ethan Young, Billy Roberts, Evan Rosenlieb, and Walter Musial
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1965–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, 2024
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This article presents the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), an updated resource for offshore wind information in the US. It replaces the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, offering improved accuracy through advanced weather prediction models. The data underwent regional tuning and validation and can be accessed at no cost.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Brian J. Gaudet, Nicola Bodini, Rob K. Newsom, and Mikhail Pekour
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 741–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, 2024
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In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas and provided valuable year-long analyses of offshore low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. In addition to the LLJ climatology, this work provides validation of LLJ representation in atmospheric models that are essential for assessing the potential energy yield of offshore wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, Alex Rybchuk, Nicola Bodini, and Michael Rossol
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, 2024
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The US offshore wind industry is developing rapidly. Using yearlong simulations of wind plants in the US mid-Atlantic, we assess the impacts of wind turbine wakes. While wakes are the strongest and longest during summertime stably stratified conditions, when New England grid demand peaks, they are predictable and thus manageable. Over a year, wakes reduce power output by over 35 %. Wakes in a wind plant contribute the most to that reduction, while wakes between wind plants play a secondary role.
Paul Veers, Carlo L. Bottasso, Lance Manuel, Jonathan Naughton, Lucy Pao, Joshua Paquette, Amy Robertson, Michael Robinson, Shreyas Ananthan, Thanasis Barlas, Alessandro Bianchini, Henrik Bredmose, Sergio González Horcas, Jonathan Keller, Helge Aagaard Madsen, James Manwell, Patrick Moriarty, Stephen Nolet, and Jennifer Rinker
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1071–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1071-2023, 2023
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Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operation of future wind turbine and wind plant systems are articulated, and key research activities are recommended.
Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Julie K. Lundquist, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, and Robert S. Arthur
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1049–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1049-2023, 2023
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The wind slows down as it approaches a wind plant; this phenomenon is called blockage. As a result, the turbines in the wind plant produce less power than initially anticipated. We investigate wind plant blockage for two atmospheric conditions. Blockage is larger for a wind plant compared to a stand-alone turbine. Also, blockage increases with atmospheric stability. Blockage is amplified by the vertical transport of horizontal momentum as the wind approaches the front-row turbines in the array.
Nicola Bodini, Simon Castagneri, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 607–620, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023, 2023
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The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published updated maps of the wind resource along all US coasts. Given the upcoming offshore wind development, it is essential to quantify the uncertainty that comes with the modeled wind resource data set. The paper proposes a novel approach to quantify this numerical uncertainty by leveraging available observations along the US East Coast.
Paul Veers, Katherine Dykes, Sukanta Basu, Alessandro Bianchini, Andrew Clifton, Peter Green, Hannele Holttinen, Lena Kitzing, Branko Kosovic, Julie K. Lundquist, Johan Meyers, Mark O'Malley, William J. Shaw, and Bethany Straw
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2491–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, 2022
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Wind energy will play a central role in the transition of our energy system to a carbon-free future. However, many underlying scientific issues remain to be resolved before wind can be deployed in the locations and applications needed for such large-scale ambitions. The Grand Challenges are the gaps in the science left behind during the rapid growth of wind energy. This article explains the breadth of the unfinished business and introduces 10 articles that detail the research needs.
Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Julie K. Lundquist, David Rosencrans, Nicola Bodini, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2085–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, 2022
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Numerical weather prediction models are used to predict how wind turbines will interact with the atmosphere. Here, we characterize the uncertainty associated with the choice of turbulence parameterization on modeled wakes. We find that simulated wind speed deficits in turbine wakes can be significantly sensitive to the choice of turbulence parameterization. As such, predictions of future generated power are also sensitive to turbulence parameterization choice.
Rachel Robey and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4585–4622, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4585-2022, 2022
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Our work investigates the behavior of errors in remote-sensing wind lidar measurements due to turbulence. Using a virtual instrument, we measured winds in simulated atmospheric flows and decomposed the resulting error. Dominant error mechanisms, particularly vertical velocity variations and interactions with shear, were identified in ensemble data over three test cases. By analyzing the underlying mechanisms, the response of the error behavior to further varying flow conditions may be projected.
Emmanouil M. Nanos, Carlo L. Bottasso, Filippo Campagnolo, Franz Mühle, Stefano Letizia, G. Valerio Iungo, and Mario A. Rotea
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1263–1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1263-2022, 2022
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The paper describes the design of a scaled wind turbine in detail, for studying wakes and wake control applications in the known, controllable and repeatable conditions of a wind tunnel. The scaled model is characterized by conducting experiments in two wind tunnels, in different conditions, using different measurement equipment. Results are also compared to predictions obtained with models of various fidelity. The analysis indicates that the model fully satisfies the initial requirements.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Adam S. Wise, James M. T. Neher, Robert S. Arthur, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Julie K. Lundquist, and Fotini K. Chow
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-367-2022, 2022
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Wind turbine wake behavior in hilly terrain depends on various atmospheric conditions. We modeled a wind turbine located on top of a ridge in Portugal during typical nighttime and daytime atmospheric conditions and validated these model results with observational data. During nighttime conditions, the wake deflected downwards following the terrain. During daytime conditions, the wake deflected upwards. These results can provide insight into wind turbine siting and operation in hilly regions.
Nicola Bodini, Weiming Hu, Mike Optis, Guido Cervone, and Stefano Alessandrini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1363–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, 2021
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We develop two machine-learning-based approaches to temporally extrapolate uncertainty in hub-height wind speed modeled by a numerical weather prediction model. We test our approaches in the California Outer Continental Shelf, where a significant offshore wind energy development is currently being planned, and we find that both provide accurate results.
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Short summary
Wind turbines create "wakes" of slowed air that reduce power for nearby turbines. To help improve wind energy models, we analyzed data from a large field experiment. We focused on a single day with changing weather patterns. We found that even simple terrain features interacted with the wind to create large variations in power output – up to 80 % – across a wind farm. This detailed dataset provides a real-world case needed to validate and improve wind energy design tools.
Wind turbines create "wakes" of slowed air that reduce power for nearby turbines. To help...
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