Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2373-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2373-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 02 Dec 2022
| 02 Dec 2022
Current and future wind energy resources in the North Sea according to CMIP6
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Oscar García-Santiago
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Alfredo Peña
Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark
Related authors
Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4499–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere that are important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Oscar García-Santiago, Andrea N. Hahmann, Jake Badger, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 963–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the results of two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, simulating a two-turbine array under three atmospheric stabilities with large-eddy simulations. We show that the WFPs accurately depict wind speeds either near turbines or in the far-wake areas, but not both. The parameterizations’ performance varies by variable (wind speed or turbulent kinetic energy) and atmospheric stability, with reduced accuracy in stable conditions.
Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We study how climate change will impact extreme winds and choice of turbine class. We use data from 18 CMIP6 members from a historic and a future period to access the change in the extreme winds. The analysis shows an overall increase in the extreme winds in the North Sea and the southern Baltic Sea, but a decrease over the Scandinavian Peninsula and most of the Baltic Sea. The analysis is inconclusive to whether higher or lower classes of turbines will be installed in the future.
Graziela Luzia, Andrea N. Hahmann, and Matti Juhani Koivisto
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2255-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2255-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a comprehensive validation of time series produced by a mesoscale numerical weather model, a global reanalysis, and a wind atlas against observations by using a set of metrics that we present as requirements for wind energy integration studies. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the numerical weather model in multiple configurations, such as related to model grid spacing and nesting arrangements, to define the model setup that outperforms in various time series aspects.
Andrea N. Hahmann, Tija Sīle, Björn Witha, Neil N. Davis, Martin Dörenkämper, Yasemin Ezber, Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Bjarke T. Olsen, and Stefan Söderberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5053–5078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind energy resource assessment routinely uses numerical weather prediction model output. We describe the evaluation procedures used for picking the suitable blend of model setup and parameterizations for simulating European wind climatology with the WRF model. We assess the simulated winds against tall mast measurements using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance, which diagnoses the performance of each ensemble member using the full wind speed and direction distribution.
Martin Dörenkämper, Bjarke T. Olsen, Björn Witha, Andrea N. Hahmann, Neil N. Davis, Jordi Barcons, Yasemin Ezber, Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Mariano Sastre-Marugán, Tija Sīle, Wilke Trei, Mark Žagar, Jake Badger, Julia Gottschall, Javier Sanz Rodrigo, and Jakob Mann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the microscale downscaling for generating the climatology. A comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain is presented using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe.
Charlotte B. Hasager, Andrea N. Hahmann, Tobias Ahsbahs, Ioanna Karagali, Tija Sile, Merete Badger, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-375-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-375-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Europe's offshore wind resource mapping is part of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) international consortium effort. This study presents the results of analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) ocean wind maps based on Envisat and Sentinel-1 with a brief description of the wind retrieval process and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) ocean wind maps. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) offshore wind atlas of NEWA is presented.
Robert Menke, Nikola Vasiljević, Kurt S. Hansen, Andrea N. Hahmann, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 681–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-681-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in complex terrain. Using six scanning lidars, we measured the wake of a single turbine at the Perdigão site in Portugal in 2015. Our findings show that wake propagation is highly dependent on the atmospheric stability, which is mostly ignored in flow simulation used for wind farm layout design. The wake is lifted up during unstable atmospheric conditions and follows the terrain downwards during stable conditions.
Bjarke T. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Anna Maria Sempreviva, Jake Badger, and Hans E. Jørgensen
Wind Energ. Sci., 2, 211–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-211-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-211-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties in wind resource assessment associated with the use of the output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is important for wind energy applications. A better understanding of the sources of error reduces risk and lowers costs. Here, an intercomparison of the output from 25 NWP models is presented. The study shows that model errors are larger and agreement between models smaller at inland sites and near the surface.
P. J. H. Volker, J. Badger, A. N. Hahmann, and S. Ott
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3715–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3715-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the Explicit Wake Parametrisation (EWP) for wind farms in mesoscale models that accounts
for the wake expansion within a turbine-containing cell. In the EWP approach, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) production results from changes in vertical shear. The velocity recovery compares well to mast data downstream of the offshore wind farm Horns Rev I. The vertical structure of the TKE and the velocity profile are qualitatively similar to that simulated with large eddy simulations.
Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4499–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere that are important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Etienne Cheynet, Jan Markus Diezel, Hilde Haakenstad, Øyvind Breivik, Alfredo Peña, and Joachim Reuder
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-733-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-733-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses wind speed data at heights up to 500 m to support the design of future large offshore wind turbines and airborne wind energy systems. We compared three wind models (ERA5, NORA3, and NEWA) with lidar measurements at five sites using four performance metrics. ERA5 and NORA3 performed equally well offshore, with NORA3 typically outperforming the other two models onshore. More generally, the optimal choice of model depends on site, altitude, and evaluation criteria.
Alfredo Peña, Ginka G. Yankova, and Vasiliki Mallini
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 83–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-83-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-83-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Lidars are vastly used in wind energy, but most users struggle when interpreting lidar turbulence measures. Here, we explain the difficulty in converting them into standard measurements. We show two ways of converting lidar to in situ turbulence measurements, both using neural networks: one of them is based on physics, while the other is purely data-driven. They show promising results when compared to high-quality turbulence measurements from a tall mast.
Oscar García-Santiago, Andrea N. Hahmann, Jake Badger, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 963–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the results of two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, simulating a two-turbine array under three atmospheric stabilities with large-eddy simulations. We show that the WFPs accurately depict wind speeds either near turbines or in the far-wake areas, but not both. The parameterizations’ performance varies by variable (wind speed or turbulent kinetic energy) and atmospheric stability, with reduced accuracy in stable conditions.
Wei Fu, Feng Guo, David Schlipf, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1893–1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1893-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A high-quality preview of the rotor-effective wind speed is a key element of the benefits of feedforward pitch control. We model a one-beam lidar in the spinner of a 15 MW wind turbine. The lidar rotates with the wind turbine and scans the inflow in a circular pattern, mimicking a multiple-beam lidar at a lower cost. We found that a spinner-based one-beam lidar provides many more control benefits than the one on the nacelle, which is similar to a four-beam nacelle lidar for feedforward control.
Alessandro Sebastiani, James Bleeg, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1795–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1795-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The power curve of a wind turbine indicates the turbine power output in relation to the wind speed. Therefore, power curves are critically important to estimate the production of future wind farms as well as to assess whether operating wind farms are functioning correctly. Since power curves are often measured in wind farms, they might be affected by the interactions between the turbines. We show that these effects are not negligible and present a method to correct for them.
Maarten Paul van der Laan, Oscar García-Santiago, Mark Kelly, Alexander Meyer Forsting, Camille Dubreuil-Boisclair, Knut Sponheim Seim, Marc Imberger, Alfredo Peña, Niels Nørmark Sørensen, and Pierre-Elouan Réthoré
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 819–848, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-819-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind farms are more commonly installed in wind farm clusters, where wind farm interaction can lead to energy losses. In this work, an efficient numerical method is presented that can be used to estimate these energy losses. The novel method is verified with higher-fidelity numerical models and validated with measurements of an existing wind farm cluster.
Wei Fu, Alessandro Sebastiani, Alfredo Peña, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 677–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-677-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nacelle lidars with different beam scanning locations and two types of systems are considered for inflow turbulence estimations using both numerical simulations and field measurements. The turbulence estimates from a sonic anemometer at the hub height of a Vestas V52 turbine are used as references. The turbulence parameters are retrieved using the radial variances and a least-squares procedure. The findings from numerical simulations have been verified by the analysis of the field measurements.
Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Marc Imberger, Ásta Hannesdóttir, and Andrea N. Hahmann
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2022-102, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We study how climate change will impact extreme winds and choice of turbine class. We use data from 18 CMIP6 members from a historic and a future period to access the change in the extreme winds. The analysis shows an overall increase in the extreme winds in the North Sea and the southern Baltic Sea, but a decrease over the Scandinavian Peninsula and most of the Baltic Sea. The analysis is inconclusive to whether higher or lower classes of turbines will be installed in the future.
Graziela Luzia, Andrea N. Hahmann, and Matti Juhani Koivisto
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2255-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2255-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a comprehensive validation of time series produced by a mesoscale numerical weather model, a global reanalysis, and a wind atlas against observations by using a set of metrics that we present as requirements for wind energy integration studies. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the numerical weather model in multiple configurations, such as related to model grid spacing and nesting arrangements, to define the model setup that outperforms in various time series aspects.
Alessandro Sebastiani, Alfredo Peña, Niels Troldborg, and Alexander Meyer Forsting
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 875–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The power performance of a wind turbine is often tested with the turbine standing in a row of several wind turbines, as it is assumed that the performance is not affected by the neighbouring turbines. We test this assumption with both simulations and measurements, and we show that the power performance can be either enhanced or lowered by the neighbouring wind turbines. Consequently, we also show how power performance testing might be biased when performed on a row of several wind turbines.
Wei Fu, Alfredo Peña, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 831–848, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measuring the variability of the wind is essential to operate the wind turbines safely. Lidars of different configurations have been placed on the turbines’ nacelle to measure the inflow remotely. This work found that the multiple-beam lidar is the only one out of the three employed nacelle lidars that can give detailed information about the inflow variability. The other two commercial lidars, which have two and four beams, respectively, measure only the fluctuation in the along-wind direction.
Davide Conti, Nikolay Dimitrov, Alfredo Peña, and Thomas Herges
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1117–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1117-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out a probabilistic calibration of the Dynamic Wake Meandering (DWM) model using high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution nacelle-based lidar measurements of the wake flow field. The experimental data were collected from the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility in Texas. The analysis includes the velocity deficit, wake-added turbulence, and wake meandering features under various inflow wind and atmospheric-stability conditions.
Davide Conti, Vasilis Pettas, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 841–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We define two lidar-based procedures for improving the accuracy of wind turbine load assessment under wake conditions. The first approach incorporates lidar observations directly into turbulence fields serving as inputs for aeroelastic simulations; the second approach imposes lidar-fitted wake deficit time series on the turbulence fields. The uncertainty in the lidar-based power and load predictions is quantified for a variety of scanning configurations and atmosphere turbulence conditions.
Alfredo Peña, Branko Kosović, and Jeffrey D. Mirocha
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the ability of a community-open weather model to simulate the turbulent atmosphere by comparison with measurements from a 250 m mast at a flat site in Denmark. We found that within three main atmospheric stability regimes, idealized simulations reproduce closely the characteristics of the observations with regards to the mean wind, direction, turbulent fluxes, and turbulence spectra. Our work provides foundation for the use of the weather model in multiscale real-time simulations.
Andrea N. Hahmann, Tija Sīle, Björn Witha, Neil N. Davis, Martin Dörenkämper, Yasemin Ezber, Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Bjarke T. Olsen, and Stefan Söderberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5053–5078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind energy resource assessment routinely uses numerical weather prediction model output. We describe the evaluation procedures used for picking the suitable blend of model setup and parameterizations for simulating European wind climatology with the WRF model. We assess the simulated winds against tall mast measurements using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance, which diagnoses the performance of each ensemble member using the full wind speed and direction distribution.
Martin Dörenkämper, Bjarke T. Olsen, Björn Witha, Andrea N. Hahmann, Neil N. Davis, Jordi Barcons, Yasemin Ezber, Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Mariano Sastre-Marugán, Tija Sīle, Wilke Trei, Mark Žagar, Jake Badger, Julia Gottschall, Javier Sanz Rodrigo, and Jakob Mann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the microscale downscaling for generating the climatology. A comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain is presented using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe.
Pedro Santos, Alfredo Peña, and Jakob Mann
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-960, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the vector of vertical flux of horizontal momentum and the vector of the mean vertical gradient of horizontal velocity are not aligned, based on Doppler wind lidar observations up to 500 m, both offshore and onshore. We illustrate that a mesoscale model output matches the observed mean wind speed and momentum fluxes well, but that this model output as well as idealized large-eddy simulations have deviations with the observations when looking at the turning of the wind.
Davide Conti, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1129–1154, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1129-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a method for carrying out wind turbine load validation in wake conditions using measurements from forward-looking nacelle lidars. The uncertainty of aeroelastic load predictions is quantified against wind turbine on-board sensor data. This work demonstrates the applicability of nacelle-mounted lidar measurements to extend load and power validations under wake conditions and highlights the main challenges.
Charlotte B. Hasager, Andrea N. Hahmann, Tobias Ahsbahs, Ioanna Karagali, Tija Sile, Merete Badger, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-375-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-375-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Europe's offshore wind resource mapping is part of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) international consortium effort. This study presents the results of analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) ocean wind maps based on Envisat and Sentinel-1 with a brief description of the wind retrieval process and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) ocean wind maps. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) offshore wind atlas of NEWA is presented.
Maarten Paul van der Laan, Mark Kelly, Rogier Floors, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 355–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The design of wind turbines and wind farms can be improved by increasing the accuracy of the inflow models representing the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In this work we employ numerical simulations of the idealized ABL, which can represent the mean effects of Coriolis and buoyancy forces and surface roughness. We find a new model-based similarity that provides a better understanding of the idealized ABL. In addition, we extend the model to include effects of convective buoyancy forces.
Alfredo Peña, Ebba Dellwik, and Jakob Mann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 237–252, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-237-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-237-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a method to assess the accuracy of turbulence measurements by sonic anemometers. The idea is to compute the ratio of the vertical to along-wind velocity spectrum within the inertial subrange. We found that the Metek USA-1 and the Campbell CSAT3 sonic anemometers do not show the expected theoretical ratio. A wind-tunnel-based correction recovers the expected ratio for the USA-1. A correction for the CSAT3 does not, illustrating that this sonic anemometer suffers from flow distortion.
Robert Menke, Nikola Vasiljević, Kurt S. Hansen, Andrea N. Hahmann, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 681–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-681-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in complex terrain. Using six scanning lidars, we measured the wake of a single turbine at the Perdigão site in Portugal in 2015. Our findings show that wake propagation is highly dependent on the atmospheric stability, which is mostly ignored in flow simulation used for wind farm layout design. The wake is lifted up during unstable atmospheric conditions and follows the terrain downwards during stable conditions.
Laura Valldecabres, Alfredo Peña, Michael Courtney, Lueder von Bremen, and Martin Kühn
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 313–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-313-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-313-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the use of scanning lidars for very short-term forecasting of wind speeds in a near-coastal area. An extensive data set of offshore lidar measurements up to 6 km has been used for this purpose. Using dual-doppler measurements, the topographic characteristics of the area have been modelled. Assuming Taylor's frozen turbulence and applying the topographic corrections, we demonstrate that we can forecast wind speeds with more accuracy than the benchmarks persistence or ARIMA.
Jakob Mann, Alfredo Peña, Niels Troldborg, and Søren J. Andersen
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 293–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-293-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Turbulence is usually assumed to be unmodified by the stagnation occurring in front of a wind turbine rotor. All manufacturers assume this in their dynamic load calculations. If this assumption is not true it might bias the load calculations and the turbines might not be designed optimally. We investigate the assumption with a Doppler lidar measuring forward from the top of the nacelle and find small but systematic changes in the approaching turbulence that depend on the power curve.
Alfredo Peña, Kurt Schaldemose Hansen, Søren Ott, and Maarten Paul van der Laan
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 191–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-191-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the wake of the Anholt offshore wind farm in Denmark by intercomparing models and measurements. We also look at the effect of the land on the wind farm by intercomparing mesoscale winds and measurements. Annual energy production and capacity factor estimates are performed using different approaches. Lastly, the uncertainty of the wake models is determined by bootstrapping the data; we find that the wake models generally underestimate the wake losses.
Bjarke T. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Anna Maria Sempreviva, Jake Badger, and Hans E. Jørgensen
Wind Energ. Sci., 2, 211–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-211-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-211-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties in wind resource assessment associated with the use of the output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is important for wind energy applications. A better understanding of the sources of error reduces risk and lowers costs. Here, an intercomparison of the output from 25 NWP models is presented. The study shows that model errors are larger and agreement between models smaller at inland sites and near the surface.
Alfredo Peña, Jakob Mann, and Nikolay Dimitrov
Wind Energ. Sci., 2, 133–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-133-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-133-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Nacelle lidars are nowadays extensively used to scan the turbine inflow. Thus, it is important to characterize turbulence from their measurements. We present two methods to perform turbulence estimation and demonstrate them using two types of lidars. With one method we can estimate the along-wind unfiltered variance accurately. With the other we can estimate the filtered radial velocity variance accurately and velocity-tensor parameters under neutral and high wind-speed conditions.
Alfredo Peña, Andreas Bechmann, Davide Conti, and Nikolas Angelou
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 101–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-101-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-101-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed flow models from different complexities. Unfortunately, high quality and reliable wind observations affected by obstacles are rare and so we have few means to evaluate our models. We have therefore performed a campaign in which we measured the effect of a fence on the atmosphere using laser-based instruments. The effect can still be noticed as far as 11 fence heights. A wake theory seems to predict the obstacle effect when we are looking at distances beyond 6 fence heights.
P. J. H. Volker, J. Badger, A. N. Hahmann, and S. Ott
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3715–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3715-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the Explicit Wake Parametrisation (EWP) for wind farms in mesoscale models that accounts
for the wake expansion within a turbine-containing cell. In the EWP approach, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) production results from changes in vertical shear. The velocity recovery compares well to mast data downstream of the offshore wind farm Horns Rev I. The vertical structure of the TKE and the velocity profile are qualitatively similar to that simulated with large eddy simulations.
Related subject area
Thematic area: Wind and the atmosphere | Topic: Wind and turbulence
Simulated meteorological impacts of offshore wind turbines and sensitivity to the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy
Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California
Swell impacts on an offshore wind farm in stable boundary layer: wake flow and energy budget analysis
An analytical formulation for turbulence kinetic energy added by wind turbines based on large-eddy simulation
Tall wind profile validation of ERA5, NORA3, and NEWA datasets using lidar observations
Flow acceleration statistics: a new paradigm for wind-driven loads, towards probabilistic turbine design
Three-year database of atmospheric measurements combined with associated operating parameters from a wind farm of 2MW turbines and rotor geometry
Observations of wind farm wake recovery at an operating wind farm
Periods of constant wind speed: how long do they last in the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer?
Brief communication: An elliptical parameterisation of the wind direction rose
Characterization of local wind profiles: a random forest approach for enhanced wind profile extrapolation
Simulations suggest offshore wind farms modify low-level jets
On the lidar-turbulence paradox and possible countermeasures
The actuator farm model for large eddy simulation (LES) of wind-farm-induced atmospheric gravity waves and farm–farm interaction
Understanding the impact of data gaps on long-term offshore wind resource estimates
Operational wind plants increase planetary boundary layer height: An observational study
Converging profile relationships for offshore wind speed and turbulence intensity
Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Risk Assessment for Offshore Wind Energy Sites
A simple steady-state inflow model of the neutral and stable atmospheric boundary layer applied to wind turbine wake simulations
Influences of lidar scanning parameters on wind turbine wake retrievals in complex terrain
Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas
Experimental evaluation of wind turbine wake turbulence impacts on a general aviation aircraft
Underestimation of strong wind speeds offshore in ERA5: evidence, discussion and correction
Brief communication: A simple axial induction modification to the Weather Research and Forecasting Fitch wind farm parameterization
Enhancing turbulent fluctuation measurement with tailored wind lidar profilers
Impact of swell waves on atmospheric surface turbulence: wave–turbulence decomposition methods
Machine-learning-based estimate of the wind speed over complex terrain using the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network
Method to predict the minimum measurement and experiment durations needed to achieve converged and significant results in a wind energy field experiment
Evaluation of wind farm parameterizations in the WRF model under different atmospheric stability conditions with high-resolution wake simulations
Renewable Energy Complementarity (RECom) maps – a comprehensive visualisation tool to support spatial diversification
Control-oriented modelling of wind direction variability
Machine learning methods to improve spatial predictions of coastal wind speed profiles and low-level jets using single-level ERA5 data
Offshore low-level jet observations and model representation using lidar buoy data off the California coast
Measurement-driven large-eddy simulations of a diurnal cycle during a wake-steering field campaign
The fractal turbulent–non-turbulent interface in the atmosphere
TOSCA – an open-source, finite-volume, large-eddy simulation (LES) environment for wind farm flows
Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States
The wind farm pressure field
Realistic turbulent inflow conditions for estimating the performance of a floating wind turbine
Brief communication: On the definition of the low-level jet
A decision-tree-based measure–correlate–predict approach for peak wind gust estimation from a global reanalysis dataset
Revealing inflow and wake conditions of a 6 MW floating turbine
Stochastic gradient descent for wind farm optimization
Modelling the impact of trapped lee waves on offshore wind farm power output
Applying a random time mapping to Mann-modeled turbulence for the generation of intermittent wind fields
From shear to veer: theory, statistics, and practical application
Quantification and correction of motion influence for nacelle-based lidar systems on floating wind turbines
Gaussian mixture models for the optimal sparse sampling of offshore wind resource
Dependence of turbulence estimations on nacelle lidar scanning strategies
Vertical extrapolation of Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) ocean surface winds using machine-learning techniques
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, Nicola Bodini, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1269–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind farms along the US East Coast can have limited effects on local weather. To study these effects, we include wind farms near Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and we test different amounts of turbulence in our model. We analyze changes in wind, temperature, and turbulence. Simulated effects on surface temperature and turbulence change depending on how much turbulence is added to the model. The extent of the wind farm wake depends on how deep the atmospheric boundary layer is.
Robert S. Arthur, Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Gabriel Rios, Sonia Wharton, Julie K. Lundquist, and Jerome D. Fast
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1187–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates a new model configuration for wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. We compare model results to observations in the Altamont Pass (California, USA), where wind channeling through a mountain gap leads to increased energy production. We demonstrate that the new model configuration performs similarly to a more established approach, with some evidence of improved wind speed predictions, and provide guidance for future model testing.
Xu Ning and Mostafa Bakhoday-Paskyabi
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 1101–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-1101-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Waves interact with the overlying wind field by modifying the stresses at the atmosphere–ocean interface. We develop and employ a parameterization method of wave-induced stresses in the numerical simulation of an offshore wind farm in a stable atmospheric boundary layer. This work demonstrates how swells change the kinetic energy transport and induce wind veer and wake deflection, leading to significant variations in the power output of wind turbines at different positions of the wind farm.
Ali Khanjari, Asim Feroz, and Cristina L. Archer
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 887–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-887-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbines add turbulence to the atmosphere behind them, especially 4–6 diameters downstream and near the rotor top. We propose an equation that predicts the distribution of added turbulence as a function of a turbine parameter (thrust coefficient) and an atmospheric parameter (undisturbed turbulence intensity before the turbine). We find that our equation performs well, although not perfectly. Ultimately this equation can be used to better understand how wind turbines affect the atmosphere.
Etienne Cheynet, Jan Markus Diezel, Hilde Haakenstad, Øyvind Breivik, Alfredo Peña, and Joachim Reuder
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-733-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-733-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses wind speed data at heights up to 500 m to support the design of future large offshore wind turbines and airborne wind energy systems. We compared three wind models (ERA5, NORA3, and NEWA) with lidar measurements at five sites using four performance metrics. ERA5 and NORA3 performed equally well offshore, with NORA3 typically outperforming the other two models onshore. More generally, the optimal choice of model depends on site, altitude, and evaluation criteria.
Mark Kelly
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 535–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-535-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Industrial standards for wind turbine design are based on 10 min statistics of wind speed at turbine hub height, treating fluctuations as turbulence. But recent work shows that the effect of strong transients is described by flow acceleration. We devise a method to measure the acceleration that turbines encounter; the extremes offshore defy 10 min averages due to various phenomena beyond turbulence. These findings are translated into a recipe supporting statistical design.
Caroline Braud, Pascal Keravec, Ingrid Neunaber, Sandrine Aubrun, Jean-Luc Attie, Pierre Durand, Philippe Ricaud, Jean-François Georgis, Emmanuel Leclerc, Lise Mourre, and Claire Taymans
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-12, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
A meteorological 3 year dataset from an operational wind farm of six 2 MW turbines, has been made available. This includes a meteorological mast equipped with sonic anemometers at four different heights and radiometer measurements for atmospheric stability analysis. Simultaneously, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and the scanned geometry of the turbine blades are provided. This database has been made accessible to the research community (https://awit.aeris-data.fr).
Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Colleen M. Kaul, Stefano Letizia, Mikhail Pekour, Nicholas Hamilton, Duli Chand, Donna Flynn, Nicola Bodini, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 361–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-361-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how atmospheric phenomena affect the recovery of wind farm wake – the disturbed air behind turbines. In regions like Oklahoma, where wind farms are often clustered, understanding wake recovery is crucial. We found that wind farms can alter phenomena like low-level jets, which are common in Oklahoma, by deflecting them above the wind farm. As a result, the impact of wakes can be observed up to 1–2 km above ground level.
Daniela Moreno, Jan Friedrich, Matthias Wächter, Jörg Schwarte, and Joachim Peinke
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-347-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-347-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Unexpected load events measured on operating wind turbines are not accurately predicted by numerical simulations. We introduce the periods of constant wind speed as a possible cause of such events. We measure and characterize their statistics from atmospheric data. Further comparisons to standard modelled data and experimental turbulence data suggest that such events are not intrinsic to small-scale turbulence and are not accurately described by current standard wind models.
Edward Hart
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-187, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
A parametric model for the wind direction rose is presented, with testing on real offshore wind farm data indicating the model is indeed representative. The presented model provides opportunities for standardisation and enables more systematic analyses of wind direction impacts and sensitivities.
Farkhondeh (Hanie) Rouholahnejad and Julia Gottschall
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 143–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-143-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In wind energy, precise wind speed prediction at hub height is vital. Our study in the Dutch North Sea reveals that the on-site-trained random forest model outperforms the global reanalysis data, ERA5, in accuracy and precision. Trained within a 200 km range, the model effectively extends the wind speed vertically but experiences bias. It also outperforms ERA5 corrected with measurements in capturing wind speed variations and fine wind patterns, highlighting its potential for site assessment.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 117–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind farms will be built along the East Coast of the United States. Low-level jets (LLJs) – layers of fast winds at low altitudes – also occur here. LLJs provide wind resources and also influence moisture and pollution transport, so it is important to understand how they might change. We develop and validate an automated tool to detect LLJs and compare 1 year of simulations with and without wind farms. Here, we describe LLJ characteristics and how they change with wind farms.
Alfredo Peña, Ginka G. Yankova, and Vasiliki Mallini
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 83–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-83-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-83-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Lidars are vastly used in wind energy, but most users struggle when interpreting lidar turbulence measures. Here, we explain the difficulty in converting them into standard measurements. We show two ways of converting lidar to in situ turbulence measurements, both using neural networks: one of them is based on physics, while the other is purely data-driven. They show promising results when compared to high-quality turbulence measurements from a tall mast.
Sebastiano Stipa, Arjun Ajay, and Joshua Brinkerhoff
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2301–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the actuator farm model, a new method for modeling wind turbines within large wind farms. The model greatly reduces computational cost when compared to traditional actuator wind turbine models and is beneficial for studying flow around large wind farms as well as the interaction between multiple wind farms. Results obtained from numerical simulations show excellent agreement with past wind turbine models, demonstrating its utility for future large-scale wind farm simulations.
Martin Georg Jonietz Alvarez, Warren Watson, and Julia Gottschall
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2217–2233, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind measurements are often affected by gaps. We investigated how these gaps affect wind resource assessments and whether filling them reduces their effect. We find that the effect of gaps on the estimated long-term wind resource is lower than expected and that data gap filling does not significantly change the outcome. These results indicate a need to reduce current wind data availability requirements for offshore measurement campaigns.
Aliza Abraham, Matteo Puccioni, Arianna Jordan, Emina Maric, Nicola Bodini, Nicholas Hamilton, Stefano Letizia, Petra M. Klein, Elizabeth Smith, Sonia Wharton, Jonathan Gero, Jamey D. Jacob, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob K. Newsom, Mikhail Pekour, and Patrick Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-148, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first to use real-world atmospheric measurements to show that large wind plants can increase the height of the planetary boundary layer, the part of the atmosphere near the surface where life takes place. The planetary boundary layer height governs processes like pollutant transport and cloud formation, and is a key parameter for modeling the atmosphere. The results of this study provide important insights into interactions between wind plants and their local environment.
Gus Jeans
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An extensive set of met mast data offshore northwestern Europe are used to reduce uncertainty in offshore wind speed and turbulence intensity. The performance of widely used industry standard relationships is quantified, while some new empirical relationships are derived for practical application. Motivations include encouraging appropriate convergence of traditionally separate technical disciplines within the rapidly growing offshore wind energy industry.
Lauren A. Mudd and Peter J. Vickery
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-123, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents an assessment of hurricane risk to offshore wind turbine systems in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes that frequent this area can potentially exceed design limits prescribed by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) wind design standards. Translations between the well-established Saffir-Simpson scale and the IEC design classes were developed to convert to communicate of hurricane severity in terms of design load conditions familiar to wind turbine designers.
Maarten Paul van der Laan, Mark Kelly, Mads Baungaard, Antariksh Dicholkar, and Emily Louise Hodgson
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbines are increasing in size and operate more frequently above the atmospheric surface layer, which requires improved inflow models for numerical simulations of turbine interaction. In this work, a novel steady-state model of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is introduced. Numerical wind turbine flow simulations subjected to shallow and tall ABLs are conducted, and the proposed model shows improved performance compared to other state-of-the-art steady-state models.
Rachel Robey and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1905–1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1905-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1905-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of wind turbine wakes with scanning lidar instruments contain complex errors. We model lidars in a simulated environment to understand how and why the measured wake may differ from the true wake and validate the results with observational data. The lidar smooths out the wake, making it seem more spread out and the slowdown of the winds less pronounced. Our findings provide insights into best practices for accurately measuring wakes with lidar and interpreting observational data.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Jiali Wang, Caroline Draxl, Nicola Bodini, Caleb Phillips, Dmitry Duplyakin, Heidi Tinnesand, Raj K. Rai, Julia E. Flaherty, Larry K. Berg, Chunyong Jung, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Three recent wind resource datasets are assessed for their skills in representing annual average wind speeds and seasonal, diurnal, and inter-annual trends in the wind resource to support customers interested in small and midsize wind energy.
Jonathan D. Rogers
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the results of a flight experiment to assess the existence of potential safety risks to a general aviation aircraft from added turbulence in the wake of a wind turbine. A general aviation aircraft was flown through the wake of an operating wind turbine at different downwind distances. Results indicated that there were small increases in disturbances to the aircraft due to added turbulence in the wake, but they never approached levels that would pose a safety risk.
Rémi Gandoin and Jorge Garza
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1727–1745, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
ERA5 has become the workhorse of most wind resource assessment applications, as it compares better with in situ measurements than other reanalyses. However, for design purposes, ERA5 suffers from a drawback: it underestimates strong wind speeds offshore (approx. from 10 m s−1). This is not widely discussed in the scientific literature. We address this bias and proposes a simple, robust correction. This article supports the growing need for use-case-specific validations of reanalysis datasets.
Lukas Vollmer, Balthazar Arnoldus Maria Sengers, and Martin Dörenkämper
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1689–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a modification to a well-established wind farm parameterization used in mesoscale models. The wind speed at the location of the turbine, which is used to calculate power and thrust, is corrected to approximate the free wind speed. Results show that the modified parameterization produces more accurate estimates of the turbine’s power curve.
Maxime Thiébaut, Frédéric Delbos, Cristina Benzo, Loïc Mahe, and Florent Guinot
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-93, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores potential technical enhancements to wind lidar profilers for improved turbulence measurement. The study separately tests the effects of increased sampling rate and reduced probe length against a commercial lidar of the same type. Various turbulence metrics were quantified to evaluate the impact of these technical modifications. The results indicate that increasing the sampling rate is the most valuable enhancement for turbulence measurement.
Mostafa Bakhoday Paskyabi
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1631–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exchange of momentum and energy between the atmosphere and ocean depends on air–sea processes, especially wave-related ones. Precision in representing these interactions is vital for offshore wind turbine and farm design and operation. The development of a reliable wave–turbulence decomposition method to remove wave-induced interference from single-height wind measurements is essential for these applications and enhances our grasp of wind coherence within the wave boundary layer.
Cássia Maria Leme Beu and Eduardo Landulfo
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1431–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extrapolating the wind profile for complex terrain through the long short-term memory model outperformed the traditional power law methodology, which due to its universal nature cannot capture local features as the machine-learning methodology does. Moreover, considering the importance of investigating the wind potential and the need for alternative energy sources, it is motivating to find that a short observational campaign can produce better results than the traditional techniques.
Daniel R. Houck, Nathaniel B. de Velder, David C. Maniaci, and Brent C. Houchens
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1189-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Experiments offer incredible value to science, but results must come with an uncertainty quantification to be meaningful. We present a method to simulate a proposed experiment, calculate uncertainties, and determine the measurement duration (total time of measurements) and the experiment duration (total time to collect the required measurement data when including condition variability and time when measurement is not occurring) required to produce statistically significant and converged results.
Oscar García-Santiago, Andrea N. Hahmann, Jake Badger, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 963–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the results of two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, simulating a two-turbine array under three atmospheric stabilities with large-eddy simulations. We show that the WFPs accurately depict wind speeds either near turbines or in the far-wake areas, but not both. The parameterizations’ performance varies by variable (wind speed or turbulent kinetic energy) and atmospheric stability, with reduced accuracy in stable conditions.
Til Kristian Vrana and Harald G. Svendsen
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 919–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed new ways to plot comprehensive wind resource maps that show the revenue potential of different locations for future wind power developments. The relative capacity factor is introduced as an indicator showing the expected mean power output. The market value factor is introduced, which captures the expected mean market value relative to other wind parks. The Renewable Energy Complementarity (RECom) index combines the two into a single index, resulting in the RECom map.
Scott Dallas, Adam Stock, and Edward Hart
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This review presents the current understanding of wind direction variability in the context of control-oriented modelling of wind turbines and wind farms in a manner suitable to a wide audience. Motivation comes from the significant and commonly seen yaw error of horizontal axis wind turbines, which carries substantial negative impacts on annual energy production and the levellised cost of wind energy. Gaps in the literature are identified, and the critical challenges in this area are discussed.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Ville Vakkari, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 821–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of the power production. However, models struggle to capture both the speed and the shape of the wind profile. Using machine learning methods based on the model data, we show that the predictions can be improved drastically. The work focuses on three coastal sites, spread over the Northern Hemisphere (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the US Atlantic coast) with similar results for all sites.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, William I. Gustafson Jr., Ye Liu, Brian J. Gaudet, Nicola Bodini, Rob K. Newsom, and Mikhail Pekour
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 741–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas and provided valuable year-long analyses of offshore low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. In addition to the LLJ climatology, this work provides validation of LLJ representation in atmospheric models that are essential for assessing the potential energy yield of offshore wind farms.
Eliot Quon
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 495–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Engineering models used to design wind farms generally do not account for realistic atmospheric conditions that can rapidly evolve from minute to minute. This paper uses a first-principles simulation technique to predict the performance of five wind turbines during a wind farm control experiment. Challenges included limited observations and atypical conditions. The simulation accurately predicts the aerodynamics of a turbine when it is situated partially within the wake of an upstream turbine.
Lars Neuhaus, Matthias Wächter, and Joachim Peinke
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 439–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-439-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future wind turbines reach unprecedented heights and are affected by wind conditions that have not yet been studied in detail. With increasing height, a transition to laminar conditions with a turbulent–non-turbulent interface (TNTI) becomes more likely. In this paper, the presence and fractality of this TNTI in the atmosphere are studied. Typical fractalities known from ideal laboratory and numerical studies and a frequent occurrence of the TNTI at heights of multi-megawatt turbines are found.
Sebastiano Stipa, Arjun Ajay, Dries Allaerts, and Joshua Brinkerhoff
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 297–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the current study, we introduce TOSCA (Toolbox fOr Stratified Convective Atmospheres), an open-source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool, and demonstrate its capabilities by simulating the flow around a large wind farm, operating in realistic flow conditions. This is one of the grand challenges of the present decade and can yield better insight into physical phenomena that strongly affect wind farm operation but which are not yet fully understood.
Rebecca Foody, Jacob Coburn, Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 263–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using lidar-derived wind speed measurements at approx. 150 m height at onshore and offshore locations, we quantify the advantages of deploying wind turbines offshore in terms of the amount of electrical power produced and the higher reliability and predictability of the electrical power.
Ronald B. Smith
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 253–261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-253-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent papers have investigated the impact of turbine drag on local wind patterns, but these studies have not given a full explanation of the induced pressure field. The pressure field blocks and deflects the wind and in other ways modifies farm efficiency. Current gravity wave models are complex and provide no estimation tools. We dig deeper into the cause of the pressure field and provide approximate closed-form expressions for pressure field effects.
Cédric Raibaudo, Jean-Christophe Gilloteaux, and Laurent Perret
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1711–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The work presented here proposes interfacing experimental measurements performed in a wind tunnel with simulations conducted with the aeroelastic code FAST and applied to a floating wind turbine model under wave-induced motion. FAST simulations using experiments match well with those obtained using the inflow generation method provided by TurbSim. The highest surge motion frequencies show a significant decrease in the mean power produced by the turbine and a mitigation of the flow dynamics.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1651–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are special types of non-ideal wind profiles affecting both wind energy production and loads on a wind turbine. However, among LLJ researchers, there is no consensus regarding which definition to use to identify these profiles. In this work, we compare two different ways of identifying the LLJ – the falloff definition and the shear definition – and argue why the shear definition is better suited to wind energy applications.
Serkan Kartal, Sukanta Basu, and Simon J. Watson
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1533-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Peak wind gust is a crucial meteorological variable for wind farm planning and operations. Unfortunately, many wind farms do not have on-site measurements of it. In this paper, we propose a machine-learning approach (called INTRIGUE, decIsioN-TRee-based wInd GUst Estimation) that utilizes numerous inputs from a public-domain reanalysis dataset, generating long-term, site-specific peak wind gust series.
Nikolas Angelou, Jakob Mann, and Camille Dubreuil-Boisclair
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1511–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first experimental investigation using two nacelle-mounted wind lidars that reveal the upwind and downwind conditions relative to a full-scale floating wind turbine. We find that in the case of floating wind turbines with small pitch and roll oscillating motions (< 1°), the ambient turbulence is the main driving factor that determines the propagation of the wake characteristics.
Julian Quick, Pierre-Elouan Rethore, Mads Mølgaard Pedersen, Rafael Valotta Rodrigues, and Mikkel Friis-Møller
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1235–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbine positions are often optimized to avoid wake losses. These losses depend on atmospheric conditions, such as the wind speed and direction. The typical optimization scheme involves discretizing the atmospheric inputs, then considering every possible set of these discretized inputs in every optimization iteration. This work presents stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as an alternative, which randomly samples the atmospheric conditions during every optimization iteration.
Sarah J. Ollier and Simon J. Watson
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1179–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This modelling study shows that topographic trapped lee waves (TLWs) modify flow behaviour and power output in offshore wind farms. We demonstrate that TLWs can substantially alter the wind speeds at individual wind turbines and effect the power output of the turbine and whole wind farm. The impact on wind speeds and power is dependent on which part of the TLW wave cycle interacts with the wind turbines and wind farm. Positive and negative impacts of TLWs on power output are observed.
Khaled Yassin, Arne Helms, Daniela Moreno, Hassan Kassem, Leo Höning, and Laura J. Lukassen
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The current turbulent wind field models stated in the IEC 61400-1 standard underestimate the probability of extreme changes in wind velocity. This underestimation can lead to the false calculation of extreme and fatigue loads on the turbine. In this work, we are trying to apply a random time-mapping technique to one of the standard turbulence models to adapt to such extreme changes. The turbulent fields generated are compared with a standard wind field to show the effects of this new mapping.
Mark Kelly and Maarten Paul van der Laan
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 975–998, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-975-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The turning of the wind with height, which is known as veer, can affect wind turbine performance. Thus far meteorology has only given idealized descriptions of veer, which has not yet been related in a way readily usable for wind energy. Here we derive equations for veer in terms of meteorological quantities and provide practically usable forms in terms of measurable shear (change in wind speed with height). Flow simulations and measurements at turbine heights support these developments.
Moritz Gräfe, Vasilis Pettas, Julia Gottschall, and Po Wen Cheng
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-925-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-925-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Inflow wind field measurements from nacelle-based lidar systems offer great potential for different applications including turbine control, load validation and power performance measurements. On floating wind turbines nacelle-based lidar measurements are affected by the dynamic behavior of the floating foundations. Therefore, the effects on lidar wind speed measurements induced by floater dynamics must be well understood. A new model for quantification of these effects is introduced in our work.
Robin Marcille, Maxime Thiébaut, Pierre Tandeo, and Jean-François Filipot
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 771–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A novel data-driven method is proposed to design an optimal sensor network for the reconstruction of offshore wind resources. Based on unsupervised learning of numerical weather prediction wind data, it provides a simple yet efficient method for the siting of sensors, outperforming state-of-the-art methods for this application. It is applied in the main French offshore wind energy development areas to provide guidelines for the deployment of floating lidars for wind resource assessment.
Wei Fu, Alessandro Sebastiani, Alfredo Peña, and Jakob Mann
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 677–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-677-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nacelle lidars with different beam scanning locations and two types of systems are considered for inflow turbulence estimations using both numerical simulations and field measurements. The turbulence estimates from a sonic anemometer at the hub height of a Vestas V52 turbine are used as references. The turbulence parameters are retrieved using the radial variances and a least-squares procedure. The findings from numerical simulations have been verified by the analysis of the field measurements.
Daniel Hatfield, Charlotte Bay Hasager, and Ioanna Karagali
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 621–637, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-621-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-621-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind observations at heights relevant to the operation of modern offshore wind farms, i.e. 100 m and more, are required to optimize their positioning and layout. Satellite wind retrievals provide observations of the wind field over large spatial areas and extensive time periods, yet their temporal resolution is limited and they are only representative at 10 m height. Machine-learning models are applied to lift these satellite winds to higher heights, directly relevant to wind energy purposes.
Cited articles
Alonso Díaz, Y., Bezanilla, A., Roque, A., Centella, A., Borrajero, I.,
and Martinez, Y.: Wind resource assessment of Cuba in future climate
scenarios, Wind Eng., 43, 311–326, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309524X18780399, 2019. a
Badger, M., Peña, A., Hahmann, A. N., Mouche, A. A., and Hasager, C. B.:
Extrapolating satellite winds to turbine operating heights, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 55, 975–991, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0197.1, 2016. a
Barthelmie, R. J. and Jensen, L. E.: Evaluation of wind farm efficiency and
wind turbine wakes at the Nysted offshore wind farm, Wind Energy, 13,
573–586, https://doi.org/10.1002/we.408, 2010. a
Beiter, P., Cooperman, A., Lantz, E., Stehly, T., Shields, M., Wiser, R.,
Telsnig, T., Kitzing, L., Berkhout, V., and Kikuchi, Y.: Wind power costs
driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon,
Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Energy Environ., 10, e398, https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.398,
2021. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y.,
Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P.,
Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A.,
Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes,
J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C.,
Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S.,
Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, Lionel, E.,
Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A.,
Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur,
G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G.,
Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L.,
Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y.,
Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A.,
Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J.,
Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and Evaluation of the
IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Carvalho, D., Rocha, A., Gomez-Gesteira, M., and Santos, C. S.: Potential
impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5
future climate projections, Renew. Energ., 101, 29–40,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.08.036, 2017. a
Carvalho, D., Rocha, A., Costoya, X., DeCastro, M., and Gómez-Gesteira,
M.: Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections:
What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6, J. Renew. Sust. Energ., 151, 111594,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111594, 2021. a
Chang, T.-J., Chen, C.-L., Tu, Y.-L., Yeh, H.-T., and Wu, Y.-T.: Evaluation of
the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait, Energy
Convers. Manag., 95, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.02.033, 2015. a
Chen, L.: Impacts of climate change on wind resources over North America based
on NA-CORDEX, Renew. Energ., 153, 1428–1438,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.02.090, 2020. a, b
Cherchi, A., Fogli, P. G., Lovato, T., Peano, D., Iovino, D., Gualdi, S.,
Masina, S., Scoccimarro, E., Materia, S., Bellucci, A., and Navarra, A.:
Global Mean Climate and Main Patterns of Variability in the CMCC-CM2 Coupled
Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 185–209,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001369, 2019. a
Cinquini, L., Crichton, D., Mattmann, C., Harney, J., Shipman, G., Wang, F.,
Ananthakrishnan, R., Miller, N., Denvil, S., Morgan, M., Pobre, Z., Bell,
G. M., Doutriaux, C., Drach, R., Williams, D., Kershaw, P., Pascoe, S.,
Gonzalez, E., Fiore, S., and Schweitzer, R.: The Earth System Grid
Federation: An open infrastructure for access to distributed geospatial
data, Futur. Gener. Comput. Syst., 36, 400–417,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2013.07.002,
2014. a
COWI: Vindressource, layouts og energiproduktion For Bornholm I + II,
Nordsøen II + III Og Området Vest For Nordsøen II + III, Tech.
rep., Danish Energy Agency,
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Vindenergi/2-3_vindressource_layouts_og_energiproduktion.pdf (last access: 13 November 2022),
2020. a, b, c, d
Cronin, J., Anandarajah, G., and Dessens, O.: Climate change impacts on the
energy system: a review of trends and gaps, Climatic Change, 151, 79–93,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2265-4, 2018. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier,
A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A.,
Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M.,
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R.,
Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van
Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer,
C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E.,
Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch,
P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2),
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a
Devis, A., Van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Demuzere, M.: Should future wind speed
changes be taken into account in wind farm development?, Environ. Res.
Lett., 13, 64012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff7, 2018. a, b, c
Dörenkämper, M., Olsen, B. T., Witha, B., Hahmann, A. N., Davis, N. N., Barcons, J., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Sastre-Marugán, M., Sīle, T., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., and Mann, J.: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020. a, b
Emeis, S.: Wind Energy Meteorology: Atmospheric Physics for Wind Power
Generation, second edn., Green Energy and Technology, Springer International Publishing,
Cham, ISBN 978-3-319-72858-2, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72859-9, 2018. a
ESGF: esgf-pyclient, ESGF [code],
https://esgf-pyclient.readthedocs.io/en/latest/, last access: 13 November 2022. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016a. a
Eyring, V., Gleckler, P. J., Heinze, C., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Balaji, V., Guilyardi, E., Joussaume, S., Kindermann, S., Lawrence, B. N., Meehl, G. A., Righi, M., and Williams, D. N.: Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016b. a
Fernandez-Granja, J. A., Casanueva, A., Bedia, J., and Fernandez, J.: Improved
atmospheric circulation over Europe by the new generation of CMIP6 earth
system models, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3527–3540, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05652-9,
2021. a
Fischereit, J., Brown, R., Larsén, X. G., Badger, J., and Hawkes, G.:
Review of Mesoscale Wind-Farm Parametrizations and Their Applications,
Bound.-Lay Meteorol., 182, 175–224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-021-00652-y, 2022. a
Gaertner, E., Rinker, J., Sethuraman, L., Zahle, F., Anderson, B., Barter, G.,
Abbas, N., Meng, F., Bortolotti, P., Skrzypinski, W., Scott, G., Feil, R.,
Bredmose, H., Dykes, K., Shields, M., Allen, C., and Viselli, A.: Definition
of the IEA 15-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind, Tech. Rep., National
Renewable Energy Laboratory,
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/75698.pdf (last access: 13 November 2022), 2020. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suarez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L.,
Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K.,
Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., Da
Silva, A., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R. D., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D.,
Nielsen, J. E., Partyke, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Reinecker, M., Schubert,
S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis
for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30,
5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Gernaat, D. E., de Boer, H. S., Daioglou, V., Yalew, S. G., Müller, C.,
and van Vuuren, D. P.: Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply,
Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 119–125, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9, 2021. a, b
Giorgi, F. and Gutowski, W. J.: Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX
Initiative, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 40, 467–490, 2015. a
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): tavg1_2d_slv_Nx: 2d, 1-Hourly, Time-Averaged, Single-Level, Assimilation, Single-Level Diagnostics V5.12.4, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/VJAFPLI1CSIV, 2015. a
Göçmen, T., van der Laan, P., Réthoré, P.-E., Diaz,
A. P., Larsen, G. C., and Ott, S.: Wind turbine wake models developed at the
Technical University of Denmark: A review, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., 60,
752–769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.113, 2016. a
Gonzalez, P. L., Brayshaw, D. J., and Zappa, G.: The contribution of North
Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for
wind power over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4095–4113,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04776-3, 2019. a, b
GWEC: Global Offshore Wind: Annual Market Report 2020, Tech. Rep. February,
Global Wind Energy Council, Bru,
https://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GWEC-Global-Offshore-Wind-Report-2020.pdf (last access: 13 November 2022),
2020. a
GWEC: Global Wind Report 2021, Tech. Rep., Global Wind Energy Council,
https://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GWEC-Global-Wind-Report-2021.pdf (last access: 13 November 2022),
2021. a
Hahmann, A. N.: future-wind Initial Release. In Wind Energy Sciences (v0.1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7260128, 2022. a
Hahmann, A. N., Vincent, C. L., Peña, A., Lange, J., and Hasager, C. B.:
Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: Method and model
sensitivities over the sea, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3422–3439, 2015. a
Hahmann, A. N., Sīle, T., Witha, B., Davis, N. N., Dörenkämper, M., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Olsen, B. T., and Söderberg, S.: The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5053–5078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, 2020. a, b
Hahmann, A. N., Sīle, T., Witha, B., Davis, N., Dörenkämper, N., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J, Olsen, B. T., Söderberg, S., Barcons, J, Sastre-Marugán, M., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., Mann, J., and Vasiljevic, N.: New European Wind Atlas: Mesoscale Atlas, Technical University of Denmark [data set], https://doi.org/10.11583/DTU.14414096.v1, 2021. a
Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Abe, M., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Okajima, H., Ito, A., Takata, K., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2018. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková,
M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., Thépaut, J. N.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee,
D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M.,
Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E.,
Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti,
G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut,
J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146,
1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
IEA: World Energy Outlook 2019, Tech. Rep., International Energy Agency,
https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019 (last access: 13 November 2022), 2019. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A.,
Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L.,
Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T.,
Waterfield, T., Yelek ci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, USA, in press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021. a, b
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C: IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C above Pre-industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001, 2022. a, b, c
Jerez, S., Tobin, I., Turco, M., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Vautard, R., and
Montávez, J.: Future changes, or lack thereof, in the temporal
variability of the combined wind-plus-solar power production in Europe,
Renew. Energ., 139, 251–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.060, 2019. a
Karnauskas, K. B., Lundquist, J. K., and Zhang, L.: Southward shift of the
global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions, Nat.
Geosci., 11, 38–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0029-9, 2018. a, b, c
Kawai, H., Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Tanaka, T., Yoshimura, H., and Nagasawa, R.: Significant improvement of cloud representation in the global climate model MRI-ESM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2875–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2875-2019, 2019. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R.,
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S.,
Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann,
S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la
Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S.,
Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner,
K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E.
M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K.,
Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S.,
Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H.,
Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens,
B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H.,
Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M
Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing
CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998–1038,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a
Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Covey, C., Latif, M., and Stouffer, R. J.:
Intercomparison makes for a better climate model, Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys.
Union, 78, 445–446, https://doi.org/10.1029/97EO00276, 1997. a
Moemken, J., Reyers, M., Feldmann, H., and Pinto, J. G.: Future Changes of
Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations,
J. Geophys. Res., 123, 6373–6389, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028473, 2018. a
Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M.,
Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine,
T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E.,
Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A Higher-resolution Version of the
Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), J. Adv. Model Earth
Sy., 10, 1383–1413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001217, 2018. a
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project V3, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA [data set], https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html (last access: 24 November 2022), 2019. a
Nygaard, N. G.: Wakes in very large wind farms and the effect of neighbouring
wind farms, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 524, 012162,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/524/1/012162, 2014. a, b
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Oudar, T., Cattiaux, J., and Douville, H.: Drivers of the Northern
Extratropical Eddy‐Driven Jet Change in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086695, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086695, 2020. a
Pedersen, M. M., van der Laan, P., Friis-Møller, M., Rinker, J., and Réthoré, P.-E.: DTUWindEnergy/PyWake: PyWake (v1.0.10), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2562662, 2019. a
Peña, A. and Hahmann, A. N.: Atmospheric stability and turbulence fluxes
at Horns Rev – an intercomparison of sonic, bulk and WRF model data, Wind
Energy, 15, 717–731, 2012. a
Peña, A. and Rathmann, O.: Atmospheric stability‐dependent infinite
wind‐farm models and the wake‐decay coefficient, Wind Energy, 17,
1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1632, 2014. a, b
Peña, A., Réthoré, P., and Laan, M. P.: On the application
of the Jensen wake model using a turbulence‐dependent wake decay
coefficient: the Sexbierum case, Wind Energy, 19, 763–776,
https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1863, 2016. a, b
Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R. J., Bukovsky, M. S., Leung, L. R., and Sakaguchi,
K.: Climate change impacts on wind power generation, Nat. Rev. Earth
Environ., 1, 627–643, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0101-7, 2020. a
Rabin, J., Delon, J., and Gousseau, Y.: Circular Earth Mover's Distance for
the comparison of local features, in: 2008 19th Int. Conf. Pattern
Recognit., Tampa, FL, USA,
8–11 December 2008, IEEE, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPR.2008.4761372, 2008. a
Reyers, M., Moemken, J., and Pinto, J. G.: Future changes of wind energy
potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, Int. J.
Climatol., 36, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4382, 2016. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp,
A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S.,
Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da
Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D.,
Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G.,
Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M.,
Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A.,
and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land
use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Glob. Environ.
Chang., 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a
Sailor, D. J., Smith, M., and Hart, M.: Climate change implications for wind
power resources in the Northwest United States, Renew. Energ., 33,
2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2008.01.007, 2008. a
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y.-C., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020. a, b
Sellar, A. A., Walton, J., Jones, C. G., Wood, R., Abraham, N. L., Andrejczuk,
M., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., de Mora, L., Dyson, H.,
Elkington, M., Ellis, R., Florek, P., Good, P., Gohar, L., Haddad, S.,
Hardiman, S. C., Hogan, E., Iwi, A., Jones, C. D., Johnson, B., Kelley,
D. I., Kettleborough, J., Knight, J. R., Köhler, M. O., Kuhlbrodt, T.,
Liddicoat, S., Linova-Pavlova, I., Mizielinski, M. S., Morgenstern, O.,
Mulcahy, J., Neininger, E., O'Connor, F. M., Petrie, R., Ridley, J., Rioual,
J.-C., Roberts, M., Robertson, E., Rumbold, S., Seddon, J., Shepherd, H.,
Shim, S., Stephens, A., Teixiera, J. C., Tang, Y., Williams, J., Wiltshire,
A., and Griffiths, P. T.: Implementation of U.K. Earth System Models for
CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001946,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001946, 2020. a, b, c
Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese,
B. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Yin, X., Vose, R., Titchner, H., Kennedy, J.,
Spencer, L. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D.,
Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Crouthamel, R., Domínguez‐Castro, F.,
Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E., Jones, P. D., Jourdain, S., Kaplan,
A., Kubota, H., Blancq, F. L., Lee, T., Lorrey, A., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri,
M., Mock, C. J., Moore, G. K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Reason, C.,
Slonosky, V. C., Smith, C. A., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Valente, M. A., Wang,
X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K., and Wyszyński, P.: Towards a more
reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth
Century Reanalysis system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 2876–2908,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598, 2019. a
Solbrekke, I. M., Kvamstø, N. G., and Sorteberg, A.: Mitigation of offshore wind power intermittency by interconnection of production sites, Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1663–1678, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1663-2020, 2020. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019. a
Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A., Colin,
J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Sénési, S.,
Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O.,
Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig,
R., Salas-y Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R.,
Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé, C., and Madec, G.: Evaluation of
CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role of Earth System Processes in
Present-Day and Future Climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4182–4227,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001791, 2019. a
Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K., Sekiguchi, M., Abe, M., Saito, F., Chikira, M., Watanabe, S., Mori, M., Hirota, N., Kawatani, Y., Mochizuki, T., Yoshimura, K., Takata, K., O'ishi, R., Yamazaki, D., Suzuki, T., Kurogi, M., Kataoka, T., Watanabe, M., and Kimoto, M.: Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the
Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Tilo, Z., A., C. M., M., L. R., Andrew, L., W., B. R., Martin, D., Lauren, S.,
Ying-Ping, W., and Jhan, S.: The Australian Earth System Model:
ACCESS-ESM1.5, J. of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 70,
193–214, https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19035, 2020. a
Tobin, I., Jerez, S., Vautard, R., Thais, F. F., Van Meijgaard, E., Prein,
A., Déqué, M., Kotlarski, S., Maule, C. F., Nikulin, G.,
Noël, T., Teichmann, C., Gobiet, A., Thais, F. F., Meijgaard, E. V.,
Prein, A., Kotlarski, S., Maule, C. F., Nikulin, G., Noël, T., and
Teichmann, C.: Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a
European mid-century wind farms scenario, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 034013,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034013, 2016.
a
Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A.,
Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat,
P., Roehrig, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Séférian, R., Valcke, S., Beau, I.,
Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville,
H., Ethé, C., Franchistéguy, L., Geoffroy, O., Lévy, C., Madec, G.,
Meurdesoif, Y., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., and
Waldman, R.: Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM-CM6-1, J. Adv.
Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2177–2213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001683,
2019. a
Volker, P. J. H., Hahmann, A. N., Badger, J., and Jørgensen, H. E.:
Prospects for generating electricity by large onshore and offshore wind
farms, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 034022, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5d86,
2017. a
Wang, S., Yang, H., Pham, Q. B., Khoi, D. N., and Nhi, P. T. T.: An ensemble
framework to investigate wind energy sustainability considering climate
change impacts, Sustainability, 12, 876, https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030876, 2020. a
Wiser, R., Rand, J., Seel, J., Beiter, P., Baker, E., Lantz, E., and Gilman,
P.: Expert elicitation survey predicts 37 % to 49 % declines in wind
energy costs by 2050, Nat. Energy, 6, 555–565,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00810-z, 2021. a
Yalew, S. G., van Vliet, M. T., Gernaat, D. E., Ludwig, F., Miara, A., Park,
C., Byers, E., De Cian, E., Piontek, F., Iyer, G., Mouratiadou, I., Glynn,
J., Hejazi, M., Dessens, O., Rochedo, P., Pietzcker, R., Schaeffer, R.,
Fujimori, S., Dasgupta, S., Mima, S., da Silva, S. R., Chaturvedi, V.,
Vautard, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Impacts of climate change on energy
systems in global and regional scenarios, Nat. Energy, 5,
794–802,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z, 2020. a
Yang, Y., Wang, B., and Cao, J. e. a.: Improved historical simulation by
enhancing moist physical parameterizations in the climate system model
NESM3.0, Clim. Dynam., 54, 3819–3840, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05209-2, 2020. a
Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Shepherd, T. G.: Improving climate change
detection through optimal seasonal averaging: The case of the North Atlantic
jet and European precipitation, J. Climate, 28, 6381–6397,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00823.1, 2015. a
Zheng, C.-W., Li, X.-Y., Luo, X., Chen, X., Qian, Y.-H., Zhang, Z.-H., Gao,
Z.-S., Du, Z.-B., Gao, Y.-B., and Chen, Y.-G.: Projection of future global
offshore wind energy resources using CMIP data, Atmos. Ocean, 57,
134–148, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2019.1624497, 2019. a
Short summary
We explore the changes in wind energy resources in northern Europe using output from simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the high-emission scenario. Our results show that climate change does not particularly alter annual energy production in the North Sea but could affect the seasonal distribution of these resources, significantly reducing energy production during the summer from 2031 to 2050.
We explore the changes in wind energy resources in northern Europe using output from simulations...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint